Dont give up even If you have lost more than 80%
I have received hundreds of Emails from all size of investors who lost hundreds of thousands of dollars (The biggest guy lost few million) Most have only one question: “Will the Market ever recover & hit all time high again?” or “Will my Coin ever hit New Highs so i can get back my capital”
No easy answers to these questions as everyone has different set of coins they have invested in. Someone bought Bitcoin at 18000 or someone bought Litecoin at 330 or someone bought QTM at 100 or Neo at 180. Different People hold different coins that were acquired at different price points. However there are some formulas which can be applied across the board for almost everyone & a solution can be found to recover lost capital in part or full
Lets first check the following table to quickly discover how much you have lost & how much you need to gain in order to get back closer to your capital levels. We have considered two scenarios. We believe we can settle for even 20% losses on the capital & hence we can focus on recovering 80% of lost capital or best case we try & recover 100% of the Lost capital. Assume original Capital was 1000$, lets see the simulation. check the table & figure out how much you have lost & how much gains you need in % Terms to get back to either 80 or 100% of your capital
Now lets assume you lost 80% of your capital. Assume your original capital was 1000$ & now you are left with 200$ only. Now in order to get back to 80% of your original capital, you need 300% Gains from Current Capital Levels. Which means if you gain 600$ from your current capital level of 200$ than you get back to 800$ which is not 100% of your original capital, but i assume many people can take 20% loss & move on. Well if not, you need 400% gains from Current Capital to get to 800$ gap thats required to get back to your capital levels. So either ways you need between 300–400% gains to get closer to almost full recovery of your capital.
Is it possible to achieve 300–400% Returns from the current levels ?
The Answer is absolutely YES. However here is the caveat. Lets take an example. Assume you bought Bitcoin at 17000 & you are still holding the same, you have almost lost 80% at current lows. Now can Bitcoin go back to 17000? Well YES & No, basically who knows. Dont get confused. We are talking about 300–400% gains from current levels. And if that can be achieved. The answer is still YES, However for that to happen, you might need to sell what you hold right now & Buy what can deliver 300–400% gains quickly.
In summary, some of the coins in your portfolio may or may not recover 400% to get back to your original capital levels & therefore you might need to churn the portfolio, book losses and switch to the high probability coins that have the potential to deliver 300–400% gains in short term.
I am sure your next question is, which are these coins? How to find those high probability coins that may rise in value in next 12 Months. Again lets focus purely on Mathematics. Lets focus all our attention on coins that have lost more than 85% of its value from All time high.
Here is why?
After every major bull or bear run in the market, we eventually find a bottom and settle down in a range for a while before a reversal & a pullback. Depending on how strong the downside or upside move was, the reversal can be anywhere between 20–50% of the entire move in a short period of time (Few weeks to Few Months). We typically use 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement as a Minimum Target generally for a Pullback after a Large drop in Prices. This logic is true for most established asset classes.
Can this be applied to Cryptocurrency in general across the board ? Well selectively YES. For High Volume Currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, IOTA, TRX and many more we can surely apply this theory. We need to be cautious about the low volume, low market cap coins & stay away from applying this logic.
Lets check the list of major coins that have lost more than 85% Value
As you can see some big & heavyweight names are there which have lost more than 85% of its value from All Time High. Now lets check the following table to figure out, what kind of % Gains they can deliver if they end up getting back to 23.6% or 38.2% retracement
Now if you see the above table, i have simplified the % Gains potential for all coins that have lost more than 85% from all time high. Lets take an example. Ethereum lost almost 93% from its all time high. Now Lets check the above table. Ethereum needs to post 313% Returns just to get back to 23.6% retracement & if it decides to post 38.2% it needs to post 507.51% gains from its lowest price
Now you may think, what if it goes down further below. Keep it simple. Refer to this table and figure out how much it needs to gain in order to post 23.6% pullback from that level. The worst case returns for those coins which lost only 85% value is 133.73% for only 23.6% retracement. The best case returns are 1871.80% for those coins which lost 98% in values if the post 38.2% retracement
I would be fairly comfortable using this theory in most other asset classes. However crypto being crypto, i still want you all to do your own research about the coins that have lost more than 85% and that have the best potential to bounce back to 23.6% and switch your existing coins at loss and convert it to high probability movers to cover your losses quickly.
Remember if your coin lost 70% than that may not be the best coin to HOLD today. The biggest losers also offer the biggest opportunity for biggest bounce back. You might be better off by switching your dud coins with a better coin that offers better risk:reward potential based on merely 23.6% or 38.3% Fibonacci Retracement
Churn your portfolio & position yourself to regain your capital sooner. Yes, its absolutely possible.
Summary:
It is possible to gain your capital simply switching your dud coins with those which have lost more than 85% value & which are most likely to deliver 300–1800% returns as soon as market returns to neutral mode. Remember we are talking about these gains without the need for the market to post All time high again. you can recover almost your entire capital back, even with only 23.6–38.2% pullback in price (This is true for most major assets. You may not apply this with low cap, low volume coins)
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