Kamala Harris Can Beat Trump

Trevor Church
Sep 5, 2018 · 9 min read

Here’s How:

The Primaries

Those who were hoping for an easy primary in 2020 after 2016 are out of luck. The closer we get to candidates declaring, the messier it is looking. Everyone from Eric Garcetti to Michael Avenatti seem to be toying with the idea of running. Consistent polling indicates that there are a few favorites among Democrats (all who might be running). For the sake of length, we will look at the five most mentioned candidates (Hillary Clinton has been left off the mock primary as she has stated multiple times that she is not running again; should this change, this article will be altered): Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Kirsten Gillibrand, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders.

Before jumping in, it should be noted that the DNC recently changed their rules and require all candidates to serve as democrats before being eligible to run for the Democratic nomination. So it is unclear if Bernie Sanders will be eligible to run.

Here is a timeline of the 2020 presidential primaries:

Monday, February 3, 2020:

Iowa

The Iowa caucuses are some of the most difficult to predict for 2020. They have been a toss up in recent elections, resulting in a coin toss in 2016. Iowa would likely go to Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren.

Tuesday, February 11, 2020:

New Hampshire

New Hampshire went to Bernie Sanders in 2016 and Hillary in 2008, so it is likely they would once again go for Bernie Sanders.

Saturday, February 22, 2020:

Nevada

Nevada would go to Kamala Harris (states that went for Obama in 2008 and Hillary in 2016 go to Kamala on this list in most cases as it’s indicative of a state enthusiastic to support a woman of color). Not to mention, Nevada also has a woman of color as a senator. This is beneficial to Kamala.

Saturday, February 29, 2020:

South Carolina

SC would go to Kamala Harris.

Tuesday, March 3, 2020:
Alabama, California, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia

Super Tuesday! This would be Kamala’s big day. She would win Alabama, California, and North Carolina definitely. Massachusetts would go to Elizabeth Warren. Vermont would go to Bernie Sanders. Oklahoma would be a toss up between Sanders and Biden. Virginia is a rare state won by both Hillary and Obama that wouldn’t necessarily go to Kamala. Bernie was unable to win the state in 2016, and would likely be unable to again in 2020 (especially with Tim Kaine — a man loyal to Hillary, in office). This state would likely be a toss-up between Gillibrand, Warren, and Biden. Although Tim Kaine could endorse a candidate and easily sway the election.

Tennessee and Texas both went for Hillary in 2008 and 2016. Ordinarily, this would make the state likely to go for Biden in 2020 (a familiar, white democrat, labeled as moderate). However, because of the amount of women of color in these states, especially Texas, theywould likely go to Kamala Harris. Leaving her with the most wins that night (including the two biggest, CA and TX).

Saturday, March 7, 2020:
Louisiana

Kamala Harris would win Louisiana.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020:

Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio

Kamala Harris would take Mississippi and Missouri, leaving Ohio and Michigan. Two states that will be huge toss-ups in the 2020 primaries for democrats. Bernie Sanders had a surprise win in Michigan in 2016, but with his endorsed candidate winning by huge margins in the 2018 gubernatorial race, it looks like he has lost his steam in the Midwestern state. Michigan previously had been a circus in the 2008 primaries also. Ohio was won by Hillary in both 2008 and 2016, so it’s unlikely that Bernie would win it in 2020. No potential candidate has any ties to either of these states, and geographically, each candidate is from the furthest stretches of the country. Your guess is as good as mine on who would take Michigan and Ohio in 2020.

Tuesday, March 17, 2020:
Arizona, Florida, Illinois

Kamala Harris would win Illinois. It’s likely that Biden would win Arizona. That leaves Florida, a state won by Hillary twice. It would likely go to Harris or Biden.

Other states in March (but with no specified date):
Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota

Colorado and Minnesota would go to Sanders or Biden. Maine would be a toss up between Sanders and Warren.

Tuesday, April 7, 2020:

Wisconsin

Wisconsin would go to Sanders or Biden.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020:

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island

This would be the biggest primary day since Super Tuesday. Connecticut and Pennsylvania would be toss-ups between Elizabeth Warren and Kristen Gillibrand. Delaware would go to Biden. Maryland would be a toss up, but would likely go to Kamala Harris. Rhode Island would make national news and cause serious problems for the Sanders campaign. Rhode Island was won by Hillary Clinton in 2008, and went to Sanders in 2016. However, Rhode Island just passed a law requiring candidates to release their tax returns before being allowed on the ballot. Sanders would be left off the ballot (and Trump would be left off the republican ballot), making Rhode Island a toss up for both parties. Sanders being left off the ballot would generate a lot of negative publicity for a campaign that likely would not have performed very well at this point in the primary in comparison to Harris and Biden. If it were any other candidate, I would say this would be the point in which the campaign would concede, but as we saw in 2016, this is unlikely. Depending on how they performed this evening (and if they were still in the race) this would be when Warren and Gillibrand’s campaigns would concede. Kirsten Gillibrand might hold off for DC and New Jersey, but it would be unlikely.

Tuesday, May 5, 2020:

Indiana

Indiana would go to Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020:

West Virginia

West Virginia would go to Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden.

Tuesday, May 19, 2020:

Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon

Joe Biden would win Arkansas. Kamala Harris would win Kentucky. Bernie Sanders would win Oregon (if he is still in the race).

Tuesday, June 2, 2020:

Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota

Montana would likely go to Bernie Sanders. New Jersey would go to Kirsten Gillibrand (if she’s still in the race), New Mexico would go to Kamala Harris or Joe Biden.

Sunday, June 7, 2020:
Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico would go for Kirsten Gillibrand (if she’s still in the race). She was one of the first senators to visit the island after their devastation last year. She also has the largest number of constituents from Puerto Rico (New York senators tend to perform best in PR for this reason).

Tuesday, June 16, 2020:
Washington, DC

DC would be tricky. Usually DC goes for those with the most experience. So it’s likely they would go for Biden, Warren, or Gillibrand (Bernie performed poorly there in 2016).

States with no approximate 2020 date:

Alaska, American Samoa, Georgia, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Northern Mariana Islands, Utah, Virgin Islands, Washington, and Wyoming:

Kamala Harris would take Georgia, Guam, Hawaii, Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands. Samoa would be a toss up between her and Biden.

Biden and Bernie would duke it out for Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.

Bernie would take Washington state.

Gillibrand would take New York.

If Gillibrand, Warren, and Sanders concede on April 28th, when it would become apparent they would not win, it’s likely Kamala would take Oregon, New Jersey, New Mexico, Peurto Rico, Washington, and New York. It’s likely Biden would take Montana, South Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.

The two would battle it out for DC.

The trickiest part of adding Joe Biden into the mix, is that although he has failed presidential campaigns, that was years ago. The electoral college has greatly changed since Joe last ran as the lead on a ticket. So how well he previously performed isn’t necessarily accurate to how he would perform today. Some might add that his experience as VP makes him the strongest contender, despite his past of losing the democratic primaries. However, vice presidents don’t actually have a great track record of running on their own after they serve. After all, they were not voted in. The president chose them. Also, Joe Biden comes from one of the smallest states, and it’s not a battleground state. So that doesn’t help him. He might have leverage in D.C. but that’s not a particularly large amount of delegates either.

Endorsements: Endorsements could play a huge part in the democratic primaries, although it’s highly unlikely that Obama or Clinton would endorse candidates until the primaries are over. If they did endorse candidates, both would likely endorse Harris or Biden. Clinton and Obama have helped deliver many wins since 2016 by simply endorsing a candidate. Bernie Sanders would likely endorse Elizabeth Warren, however, more than 95% of the candidates Sanders has endorsed since 2016 have lost their primary.

Basically, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand would cancel each other out. Joe Biden would mostly cancel out Bernie Sanders. Although both Biden and Harris would have a large number of wins, Biden’s wins in the Mid and Southwest wouldn’t be enough for Kamala’s West Coast and Southern wins. Then she would face off with Trump. Some might say she’s inexperienced, but this works to her advantage like it did to Obama. The less time you’ve spent as a Senator, the less likely it is that there’s dirt for the Republicans to use against you.


The General Election

My projection of the electoral college in 2020

The electoral college looks different now than it did in 2016. Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico are turning more democratic every year. For the most part, they are now considered safe blue states. On the other end, Iowa and Florida are turning more red every year. Arizona is now blue enough to be considered a swing state. North Carolina is mostly red, but could go blue (there has been a lot of energy put into gerrymandering in North Carolina and voter suppression). Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are true toss up’s. With the above map, the Democrat has 233 electoral votes. The Republican has 186 electoral votes. There are 119 swing votes.

Since the 2016 election, democrats have really stepped up their game in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. As of now, it looks like we will win Michigan and Pennsylvania in the midterms in a landslide. It looks hopeful for Arizona. It looks promising for Wisconsin. Florida, projections are rarely accurate in. However, two polls for the governor’s race there have democrats winning, and polls for the senate race are tied. Ohio is promising for democrats, but that is mostly because it’s Sherrod Brown running — a very well-respected incumbent democrat. North Carolina is likely red, but Obama was able to pull it off in 2008.

Obama won Florida twice. He lost North Carolina once and won it once. If Trump follows this trend, and wins FL and loses NC, that gives Kamala Harris 248 electoral votes (270 are needed to win), plus whichever swing states she picks up. If Trump wins those two states again, and Arizona, and the trends in PA, WI, and MI continue through 2020 and Kamala wins them, Kamala would have 279 electoral votes, and Trump would have 241. She still wins. It wouldn’t matter who Ohio votes for.

If Kamala can tap into minorities and millennials the same way Obama did in 2008, she will win in a landslide. Even if she just taps into a portion big enough to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Especially if she chooses a white guy from the Midwest as her running mate. The trends in those states currently are saying a democrat can win. Trump has terrible approval ratings, the democrats are projected to win back the house and senate this Fall, and there is a huge surge for female candidates: where women are running, they are winning. Kamala can win.

Trevor Church

Written by

Author of Out of the Woods: The Lynch Mob & Hillary Clinton

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