Trump’s Biggest Lie.

He is running on his ability to win. Polls cast serious doubt.

With all the spin and punditry that accompanies the release of any new polling data, it is easy to lose our sense of perspective about what the numbers are really telling us. The latest ABC News — Washington Post poll released on March 31st (see Figure 1) contained a lot of bad news for Trump. It showed that Trump is doing very poorly with just about every electorally-important demographic. But how poorly? Without any points of comparison, it is hard to tell just how bad these numbers are. To put them into perspective, I’ve done some research and put together my own graphic comparing Trump’s polling numbers with Mitt Romney’s actual performance in the 2012 general election for each demographic (see Figure 2.)

Trump has made great sport of criticizing Romney’s 2012 campaign, calling him a “lightweight” and a “choke artist” for losing to Obama in. Some of that criticism is well-deserved; Romney’s campaign was certainly no smashing success. He lost the electoral college to Obama by 332 to 206. Trump has promised that he will succeed where Romney failed and that he will do so “easily.” But if this is the case, we should see some evidence of it by now in the polls. We should at least see a path forward. This chart doesn’t offer much encouragement for the pro-Trump faction. A quick glance at the chart speaks volumes; Trump is lagging Romney almost everywhere. But looking a bit closer, here are the three biggest takeaways.

1) Trump does poorly where Romney did well.

After Romney’s shocking loss in 2012, the Republican Party conducted an exhaustive postmortem to try to figure out what went wrong. The result of this investigation was published in a remarkable document entitled the Growth And Opportunity Project. It is well worth a read. The authors of the report sought to diagnose exactly where Romney fell short, and what changes could be made to prevent more losses in the future.

They found that Romney performed reasonably well with the traditional Republican base. Religious voters, for example, supported Romney over Obama by a two-to-one ratio. White men supported him by over 60%. College educated whites and white women both supported him by a solid 55% majority. Conservative voters, a important ideological group for turnout, voted for Romney by an overwhelming 82%. These are solid numbers. Romney didn’t lose because he failed to win over the base. He lost because the base is shrinking. White voters are not the political force they used to be. In 1988, the electorate was 88% white; in 2012, it was 72% white. By 2050, whites are projected to be just 47% of the electorate. The Growth And Opportunity Project suggested that white voters, while still a crucial demographic for the Republican Party, were no longer sufficient to win a national election; the party would have to find ways of expanding the base.

Trump appears to be doing the opposite. His favorability among white evangelicals, for example, is a dismal 41%. That is 28% short of Romney’s numbers. Similarly, Trump trails Romney among white men by 15%, and white women by 27%. Perhaps most devastatingly, he is only seen favorably by 44% of conservatives. This places him an astounding 38% short of where Romney stood with the most important ideological group in the Republican electorate.

Now, it is important to note that these numbers will change some if Trump becomes the nominee. When faced with a binary choice, many (but not all) Republicans will hold their noses and vote for Trump no matter how unfavorable their opinion of him is. But if Trump is going to win, he will need to do much better than Romney did with these base voters. He’ll need to blow Romney’s numbers out of the water. That means he will need more than grudging acceptance; he’ll need to inspire enthusiasm in the base. These polling numbers show absolutely zero evidence that he is on track to do that.

Based on this poll, it would be a miracle if Trump matches Romney’s performance with the Republican base. But even if he pulls off the turnaround of the century, which seems increasingly unlikely with every new gaffe, he will still be on track to lose. That is because…

2) Where Romney did poorly, Trump does worse. A lot worse.

In order to win a general election, you need to do more than win with your base. You have to capture “swing” voters as well. When you look at the most significant groups of swing voters, you can begin to see why Romney lost so badly. The Growth And Opportunity Project found that one of the biggest reasons Romney lost was his failure to win over Hispanic voters. Romney did terribly with Hispanics, winning just 27% of America’s fastest-growing demographic group. Romney’s dismal performance with Hispanics probably lost him the 2012 election, but it was also a big, flashing warning sign for the long-term competitiveness of the Republican Party.

The decline of whites as a percentage of the electorate is not going to stop any time soon (see Figure 3.) With black voters firmly entrenched in the Democratic Party, Hispanics hold the potential to be the saviors of the Republican Party. And there is plenty of reason to think it might be possible to bring them into the fold. After all, they are a socially conservative, family-oriented, highly religious, and fast-growing group with no entrenched party loyalties. George W. Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, which was the last general election won by a Republican.

Republicans have known for a long time that the survival of the Party depends on its ability to be competitive with Hispanics. If Hispanics start to swing Democrat in large numbers, there is no way the GOP can be competitive nationally. Studies suggest that a Republican candidate needs at least 42–47% of the Hispanic vote to be competitive. That number will go up over time as Hispanics continue to grow as a percentage of the electorate. Romney’s miserable 27% in 2012 made it clear that the GOP is losing this battle. The 2016 nominee will have to do much better than 27% with Hispanics to win. It is do or die.

Well, Trump will do worse. Much worse. Polls consistently show that Trump’s approval with Hispanics is less than 15%. His unpopularity with Hispanics is personal, persistent, and transcends party lines. It would be hard to find a worse candidate if your goal is to win over Hispanic voters. He’ll make Romney’s numbers look stellar in comparison. He might also alienate the only demographic that can save the GOP.

Romney also performed terribly among young voters. Obama was remarkably successful at mobilizing this group, leaving Romney with only 38% of their vote. In the aftermath of the 2012 election, the Republican Party recognized that winning these voters over was crucial for the future of the party. Is Trump the man to win over the next generation of Republican voters? Frankly, no. With only 18% favorability, Trump is almost as unpopular with millennials as he is with Hispanics. In fact, polls suggest that nominating Trump is likely to send millennials running in Hillary’s direction.

Same story for moderate and independent voters. Romney won exactly half of independent voters in 2012. If there were any evidence that Trump was likely to improve on this number, his chances of winning would look much more promising. After all, independents make up around 30% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Trump, polls suggests that independent voters aren’t buying what he is selling. Only 33% of independents have a favorable view of Trump. That means he has a lot of ground to cover to even come close to Romney’s lack-luster 50% showing. Similarly, only 25% of moderates have a favorable opinion of Trump; Romney took 41% of this group in 2012.

Taken in isolation, any one of these problems could doom Trump’s candidacy. Taken together, and coupled with his lack of appeal to the traditional Republican base, you have the recipe for an electoral beat-down of biblical proportions.

3) There is very little evidence here of “redrawing the map.”

Trump would suggest that none of this matters because he is going to “redraw the map.” This theory, mostly promoted by Trump himself, says that Trump will win by amassing votes from places Republican candidates normally can’t complete. The theory mostly depends on Trump’s ability to win over Democratic-leaning blue-collar whites in “rust-belt” states like Ohio and Wisconsin. It was a dubious idea to begin with; the new poll throws even more cold water on it. Non-college-educated whites, a group Romney won with 61% of the vote, are unimpressed with Trump. Just 45% of them have a favorable opinion of him, leaving plenty of room for doubt that he will even match Romney, much less “redraw the map.” And let’s remember, Trump lost to John Kasich in the Ohio primary and looks to be headed toward a big loss to Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary on April 5th. These are both states he would need to win in a general election to make his “redrawing the map” theory work.

There is one, only one, group in which Trump’s polling beats Romney’s 2012 performance: African Americans. Romney won just 6% of African Americans in 2012. According to the poll, Trump is viewed favorably by 17%. This is actually a pretty good number for a Republican, but there are a few reasons to doubt that Trump’s appeal among African American voters is game-changing.

Trump’s numbers don’t look as good when placed into context. Romney’s dismal 6% came in a race against Barack Obama who is, you might recall, black. In the previous elections between 1980 and 2004, Republican candidates got between 8–12% of the African American vote, which is much closer to Trump’s recent polling range of 4–12% favorability among that group. It is also worth keeping in mind that Trump’s general election opponent is likely to be Hillary Clinton, who is extremely popular among blacks, and is sure to spend lots of time talking about Trump’s racist comments, his hesitance to disavow the KKK, and the extreme racism exhibited by many of his supporters. This seems likely to keep most black voters firmly entrenched in the Democratic camp.

Finally, it is important to remember that President Obama, who has stayed out of the primary campaign, will be actively campaigning for the Democratic nominee in the general election. This is sure to motivate many black voters to rally around Hillary. But even if none of this has any effect and Trump manages to get mid-teens support from the black community, that won’t be sufficient to make up for his weakness with the Republican base and his lack of appeal to swing voters. Long story short, his appeal to black voters is surprisingly good, but not good enough to redraw any maps.

No, Hillary won’t save him.

There is one final lesson to be learned from 2012. Trump’s likely opponent in a general election is Hillary Clinton, who is not particularly popular either. Trump supporters might be tempted to think that this will negate whatever disadvantages Trump may have. The results in 2012 suggest that this would be a vain hope. Recall that President Obama’s approval ratings were extremely low during the race against Romney. In fact, Obama’s job approval in April of 2012, exactly four years ago, was 41%, which is the same as Hillary’s favorability right now. Romney’s shrinking base and his inability to appeal to young voters and Hispanics doomed him to lose to an extremely unpopular opponent.

Rather than learning from Romney’s mistakes, Trump seems determined to exceed them. He’ll fail where Romney failed, he’ll fail where Romney succeeded, and he’ll leave the Republican party in far worse shape than Romney ever did.

If they actually want to win, it is time for Trump’s supporters to reconsider their choice.

//

Follow me on Twitter @Trump_Truther. Shares, likes, and retweets are much appreciated.