Right now, we’re on the precipice of history.
Donald Trump — a Mobster, turned Reality TV star turned Russian Asset is in danger of being impeached.
Impeachment — and Senate Removal are two of the most serious items in our political system. Theoretically, They should not happen because the people we elect should not be criminals. When they do happen, ideally, it should be in a situation where people choose country over party.
Nixon and Clinton were under different circumstances. The House Judiciary Committee voted in a bipartisan way to push impeachment to the House on 3 of the Charges, but then he resigned. 5 Democrats voted to impeach Clinton, but 3 of them switched parties after the fact. Given the National Security Implications of this Presidency, I believe we will see an unprecedented bipartisan move to rid this country of mobsters and foreign spies.
When people freaked out about Nancy Pelosi being hesitant to make a move, I was only a little worried. She is waiting for the needle to hit a specific metric. Right now, it looks like 41 wants Trump impeached and 43% approve of him. As the news keeps breaking, I believe Pelosi will give her “OK” to start the inquiry once the 41%/43% mentioned above hits 39/45. I believe that is the magic number. (Update 9/14): with hearings looming next week, Trumps approval dipped below 40% in 3 polls)
Most of her committee heads have come out in support of impeachment, so it will happen.
The only real question now is: What will Mitch McConnell do?
Pelosi and McConnell have to walk a tightrope of priorities at the moment. We know that legislation isn’t going to pass unless Mitch allows it to make it to the Senate Floor.
No, 2020 is an election they’re preparing to go “Scorched Earth” on. Whoever controls Congress in 2020 controls the Census, and with it, redistricting. The next President will also potentially be able to replace up to 4 Supreme Court Justices — given that there are 4 over 70, and the most of the recent Justices to leave have been in their 70s.
A lot of people say Mitch McConnell will never allow Trump to be removed from office, but I call bullshit to that premise. Moscow Mitch is one of the best legislative leaders in American history, even if that means he is probably legitimately evil.
Like Doctor Strange in the Avengers movie, Mitch probably has hundreds of plans sitting in his basement — each one dependent on several of factors, with the plans wide ranging from Mitch himself leading the impeachment charge in order to save his party to Mitch refusing to allow the trial at all.
If Mitch deems it necessary to save his party and win in 2020, there are several ways he could preempt Nancy Pelosi and gain control of the narrative.
For him to do this, Fox News has to turn — and we’re already seeing evidence of individual hosts turning. Once Fox News Abandons Trump, Mitch will. We’re already seeing cracks form. Bret Beier claimed the Report was a damn rebuke of Trump, while Andrew Napolitano claimed it was grounds for impeachment. Cavuto, Shephard Smith, and Chris Wallace just a few among the Conservative Voices who see the truth.
None of what I am about to suggest can be viewed as a likely scenario, but he will do anything to win, so I had to think outside the box.
Scenario #1: McConnell, seeing the evidence mounting, could signal to Pence that he has to declare the 25th Amendment active and remove Trump from office, to save his party. He would only attempt this if he knew he had a majority of the Cabinet on his side, and he could handpick the replacement candidate. This will never happen, because it would ideally have to happen before impeachment hearing could really damage the GOP but doing it then would piss the base off.
Scenario 2: Similar to 1, Pence resigns, and they force Trump to nominate Mitch’s handpicked nominee as VP, and then they kick him out. A comedy option here is if Trump gets wind that Mitch is about to set this in motion and resigns after Pence, handing the Presidency to Pelosi.
Scenario 3: I call this the “Nightmare” scenario. Pelosi waits too long to approve an inquiry, which allows the Trump team to manage the media news cycle with stories about the Deep State — and the needle moves in the wrong direction, so impeachment barely passes and they pick up zero Republican Senate votes. “Too Long” in my mind is waiting until after July 4th.
Scenario 4: This is what I think will happen. It is pretty clear that Trumps presidency is crumbling, but McConnell won’t turn on Trump if Pence is also targeted, because he’d never put up with President Pelosi. They will make a deal, and then a Republican “savior” will announce his run.
I am envisioning a calendar where the House starts impeachment at the end of June, votes to impeach in mid-August, and the Senate Trial will last six weeks culminating in a Senate vote to remove Trump in or around September 23rd. (Note: I did not take the August senate recess into consideration when writing this initially, but it’s telling that my date of removal is the day the impeachment wall broke)
It is possible that McConnell will block a vote or make the trial speedy and limited as has been rumored, but given that 53% of the country already believes Trump obstructed justice BEFORE Mueller’s press conference it seems unlikely. Granted impeachment isn’t polling well, but it’s still polling 7% higher than Clinton before that started.
I believe that a summer of news showing more crimes and hearing revealing even more unethical misdeeds will push the public mindset enough to convince McConnell that he will have to sacrifice Trump to save his party.
As I write this, I am assuming that the pendulum does not swing in the anti-impeachment direction because of all the cut and dry blatant criminal behavior, but I do also do not believe that he would not be removed if the vote were held today.
We also have to keep in mind how “unpopular” Trump was when he ran for President. 8 Current Senators refused to vote for him. Besides Graham, there’s been Minuscule love for Trump among any of them over the past 2 years.
There are individual Republican Senators who will be holdouts regardless of how well impeachment is polling.
THE DEEP RED STATES
According to polling, there 16 Senators currently serving in states where Trump has an approval-disapproval gap of 15 points or more. Normally, I would say that these people are out of reach — but two of them are Democrats (Manchin and Jones), and two of them have already announced their retirements (Enzi and Alexander) making them up for grabs.
Of this list, I’d say red are lost causes regardless of how well impeachment polls. Orange is the true long shots based on past statements, and only if polling moves 10+ points. Shelby bashed Trump due to Sessions, and Mitch will do whatever is best for the GOP…..which might be getting rid of Trump. Yellow needs movement of 5 points or more just based on their past statements or retirement status, and I think that if the impeachment vote were held today, the ones in green would vote to impeach.
I was a taken aback by how poorly Trump is polling in some of these deep “red” states. I believe the road to impeachment lies in these people.
Lindsay Graham is the most disappointing for me here having gone from a critic to his best congressional ally. Tim Scott has not been quiet about his discomfort with Trump’s history on race. Both Senators in South Dakota haven’t said much positive about Trump, and despite his visit to Moscow, Thune doesn’t seem compromised like Graham.
It will not take much for the Utah, Nebraska, and Texas Delegations to turn on Trump. Sasse, Romney, and Cruz already despise who Trump is. A lot of these people have been openly critical of Trump. Nebraska and Indiana have been walloped by the trade war with China, so it stands to reason that his polling is going to tank soon.
This all relies on when Mitch decides that getting rid of Trump will save the party long term and that dumping him would be best. For McConnell and the Republican leadership, this decision is pure politics. They have to figure out whether turning on Trump will help or hurt them, and that depends on the hearings, the polling, and us. We need to convince them.
At this point, the “Vote Now” portion has failed to achieve 67 votes, but shifting the electorate even 5 points would bring another ~4 Republican Senators in the Swing States in.
Rick Scott is a Trump lock through and through, and David Purdue has been defending Trump for weeks. Missouri appears to be a lock despite its break-even reporting for Trump. Rubio may not say much negative about Trump now, but he clearly did not believe Trump could be trusted with the nuclear codes.
From here on out is pretty obvious. The Republicans left are all in states where Trump is unpopular and 5/7 are up for re-election.
We’ve also got to remember that Cory Gardner, Mike Crapo, and a whole slew of other Senators including Lee, Capito, Collins, Fischer, Murkowski, Sasse, Sullivan, Portman, AND Thune also called for Trump to step aside at various points in his campaign.
If the vote is rushed, the Senate will NOT vote to remove right now. It will fail on party lines. Manchin and Jones might even flip because of how poorly executed a quick impeachment would be.
If we started impeachment proceedings too early, we would have lost the one chance we have to set things right. We lose the one chance to stop this move towards fascism worldwide from winning. We can’t rely on the elections to stop it.
We have to rely on rectifying the criminal behavior that took place in the last election and to do so, we need to expose Trump and his entire administration in hearings, and we need to do it on a daily basis. This will move the needle AT LEAST 5 points in the direction we need it to be and put pressure on McConnell to impeach.
The Institute of Societel Conditions wrote up a mock indictment using all of the information we already know, which includes 23 different criminal charges against a vast network of Mobsters. The Mueller Report and the various other investigations circling
Donald Trump, with the help of at least 4 foreign governments and multiple private intelligence firms — stole our election by praying on people online.
In the GrandOldPutinParty series, we covered the decades- long battle that Russian Intelligence has been waging on the United States. We uncovered many inflection points where our Government could have stopped everything in its tracks — The Abramoff scandal being one of them — and we identified a vast spy network in the United States posing as the “Coordinating Council for Russian Compatriots.” The Russian Mob has a foothold in Miami and in New York City and in Philadelphia. They, along with China, are making moves to control the flow of information on the internet.
We’re in danger. Removing Trump from Power is the only way to start to win. If we don’t, the next few President’s will take advantage of his unpunished abuses of power and get worse until the America most of us know and love, is gone.