When is the best time to book your next Airbnb?
If you’re anything like me, you usually book things when it’s way too late to find the best deals. For the past few years, I’ve almost exclusively been using Airbnb for accommodations all over the world. However, just like any accommodation service, Christmas and New Year’s is a crazy time for bookings. So this has motivated me to look at the raw data and attempt to provide data-backed answers to the 4 following questions:
- Are there any visible trends in the Airbnb prices in Toronto?
- Are weekends actually more expensive to book?
- Are these trends consistent year-round?
- What is the ideal time to book your Airbnb for the holiday season in Toronto?
I’ve used data from inside Airbnb for Toronto. I used all available data for 2018, with 6 different extraction dates:
- October 6th
- September 9th
- August 8th
- July 6th
- May 11th
- April 9th
Of the 3 main files available for each extraction date. I only chose to work with the ‘calendar’ file which contains data for listings with the date, availability, and price. Each file spans 365 days.
Are there any visible trends in the Airbnb prices in Toronto?
First, let’s plot the price variable of one single file and look at the range of prices for an entire year of data.
It’s clear that only a handful of listing prices are over $1,500. In fact, 99% of all available listings in October are priced under $900. To answer our first question of interest; even at such a high level, we can see some consistent trends in the price data. For example, the price of some listings slowly increase until they peak during the summer, while others are at their peak close to the extraction date and the price keeps going down over time.
Are weekends actually more expensive to book?
Next, let’s look at the average listing price by day in the hopes of seeing more distinct differences in the time series.
Prices tend to be at their highest closest to the extraction date; which makes sense. The lower-priced places are booked first, then people are left with more expensive options. Plus, people tend to be more willing to shell out more money if they have to book on short notice.
Another interesting trend is the consistency of weekends being priced higher than weekdays. Higher demand on the weekends is bound to drive prices up. So, the answer to our second question of interest is a resounding yes. Christmas and New Year’s also create a giant spike in the graph. Which shows just how crazy it gets around the winter holidays. Lastly, there is an almost continuous upward trend starting from the end of January, all the way to the end of summer in late August.
Are these trends consistent year-round?
Are these trends simply a byproduct of looking at the data in October, or are they consistent year-round? In order to get a clearer picture, let’s look at all the available data for 2018/19 when they were extracted at different times throughout the year.
The 3 trends noted earlier seem to be persistent throughout the year, which answers our third question of interest. Weekends are more expensive, summer is the most expensive season of the year, and Christmas is crazy. The latter seems to be the most persistent part of the graph at any given time.
With Christmas being this crazy, and knowing that it’s always cheaper to book in advance; let’s answer our fourth and final question of interest and find out how far in advance should we actually book a place to get the best value for our money.
What is the ideal time to book your Airbnb for the holiday season in Toronto?
Oddly enough, the earliest extraction dates are not the cheapest. This could be due to the fact that the most expensive accommodations are managed properties. So they list their space as early as possible in order to maximize their chances of being booked.
The graph shows that the month of July is the cheapest time to book your Christmas stay in Toronto. Maybe booking 5 months in advance isn’t an option for everyone. But for those who have set plans that don’t change much over the years, now you know the best time to book your next Airbnb for Christmas time in the 6ix.
