How TV Grim Reaper Predicts Renewal Or Cancellation For Your Favorite TV Shows

If you read the TV media, you’d think the renewal and cancellation decisions for TV shows are complicated and shrouded in mystery. That’s nonsense.

Predicting the renewal and cancellation of TV shows isn’t as hard as the clueless TV media would have you believe.

What matters:

  • The adults 18–49 ratings relative to other scripted shows on the same network. Shows within 15–20% of the networks scripted average rating are likely to be renewed. Shows above the average rating are virtually a lock for renewal. The Reaper Index (see below) measures those relative ratings.
  • Syndication status, i.e. how many episodes has the show generated? Example: Shows with 66eps after 3 seasons, produced by the network’s in house studio are guaranteed a fourth season.
  • Who produces the show. Shows produced by the network’s in-house studio have an advantage over shows produced by a third party studio.

What doesn’t matter:

  • Ratings vs. shows on other networks
  • Total viewership

TV Grim Reaper has been able to maintain a correct prediction rate of over 90% on an annual basis. And he predicts from week one of the season, not like those who predict in April, when things are nearly obvious.

Fans wanting to see where their favorite broadcast scripted shows stack up on a relative basis vs. the other shows on their network can read TV Grim Reaper’s predictions every Tuesday during the US broadcast TV season (late Sept — late May). TV Grim Reaper will have new posts for each broadcast network every week with updated renewal and cancellation prediction.

What is the Reaper Index?

The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18–49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18–49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

Note: Of course, it’s the absolute ratings that matter to each network’s bottom line. So when all the shows on a particular network have ratings drops, it’s not bad news for any one of the shows in particular, but it is bad news for the network.
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Originally published at TV Grim Reaper.

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