What Premiere Ratings For Each Returning Broadcast TV Show Should “Surprise” You?
When the 2017–18 broadcast TV season kicks off on September 25, the TV media will inevitably compare premiere ratings to last season’s ratings for returning shows.
The most innumerate chuckleheads among the TV media will be “surprised” when 2017 premiere ratings are below 2016 premiere ratings.
You shouldn’t be.
Given the 35+ year decline in broadcast TV ratings, it should be expected that each season’s premiere ratings are below the previous season’s premieres.
What should surprise you?
In recent memory, it’s been typical for shows to premiere close to their final episodes ratings from the previous season.
To assist you in figuring out what premiere ratings are truly surprising, the table below contains the average adults 18–49 Live+Same Day ratings for the last 4 new episodes of each returning show. Most of the episodes were in the last 5 weeks of the season, but a noticeable fraction of the shows ended earlier in the year.
If a show’s premiere ratings are within 0.1 ratings point of the numbers in the table it’s not “surprising”, it was to be expected.
If a show’s premiere ratings are more than 0.1 below or (particularly) above the ratings in the table, it could reasonably be called “surprising”, the further away, the more surprising.
Originally published at TV Grim Reaper.