Introduction to Bayesian Thinking: from Bayes theorem to Bayes networks
Felipe Sanchez

I tried to comprehend what you were presenting, but understanding was elusive. To me, your explanations will work mainly for people who already understand the concepts.

You were talking about Sensitivity and Specificity — but you chose not to use those terms, for some reason. It would help if you explained *why* the true positive value of a 99% accurate test is surprisingly low. Understanding that would be enlightening.