Two Lanterns AdvisoryTwo Lanterns Forecasting TournamentPredictions are a constant in politics, but they are constantly difficult to do.Jan 10, 2020Jan 10, 2020
Two Lanterns AdvisoryBoston City Council Forecasting TournamentThe City of Boston goes to the polls on November 5 and we’re looking for the best forecaster of what will happen with a $250 prize to…Oct 16, 2019Oct 16, 2019
Two Lanterns AdvisoryAccounting for the overround in the Bookie TrackerThe idea underlying the Bookie Tracker (longer explanation of it is here) is that betting agencies are good sources of political…May 21, 2019May 21, 2019
Two Lanterns AdvisoryIntroducing the Bookie TrackerIn a few weeks, millions of dollars will be staked on a simple prediction: who will win the Champions League final.May 13, 2019May 13, 2019
Two Lanterns AdvisoryThe Veepstakes — Phase 1Political risk is defined by uncertainty. We make predictions about issues that may have no data available, no easy sources, and a wide…Apr 3, 2019Apr 3, 2019
Two Lanterns AdvisoryMassachusetts network theory and unconventional political dataCommonWealth magazine yesterday ran my article about using network theory to understand how cosponsorships in legislation indicate a…Mar 11, 2019Mar 11, 2019
Two Lanterns Advisory2018: Recapping the year in political riskAround this time of year, you start to see lists of the top political risks for the next 12 months. You never see lists recapping the last…Dec 17, 2018Dec 17, 2018
Two Lanterns AdvisoryMidterms 2018: Lessons for political riskThe US midterm elections yesterday are the biggest story of the week. Here are some quick thoughts about what they can teach us for…Nov 7, 2018Nov 7, 2018
Two Lanterns AdvisoryHow can we measure political risk when we can’t measure political risk?A Martin Wolf column in the Financial Times earlier this month discusses how political risk, and political developments more generally…Oct 31, 2018Oct 31, 2018
