The Houston Rockets are NBA Contenders
In 2004–05, Mike D’Antoni took over the Phoenix Suns for his first full season as an NBA head coach. The system he implemented became known as the 7-second offense, which was to simply drive the tempo of the game by putting relentless pressure on the defense and scoring within the first quarter of the shot clock. Filled with a roster of athletes such as Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, and Amar’e Stoudemire, the 7-second offense took the league by storm. The Suns finished first in 3-pointers made, 3-pointers attempted, offensive rating, and effective field goal %.
13 years after D’Antoni arrived in the Arizona desert, a new southern city has embraced the coach’s philosophy with open arms. GM Daryl Morey, following a lacklustre 2015–16 season, hired D’Antoni to lead his Houston Rockets to a championship — a tall order in an inherently unfair league. To say the Rockets have been good this year would be an understatement. The team, following a 41–41 season last year, is 25–9. This puts them 3rd in the West & 4th in the NBA.
The Houston Rockets have a rare combination of a general manager in Morey, a coach in D’Antoni, a superstar in James Harden, and a supporting cast of players that perfectly align. The coach’s system and the player’s talents are the ideal skills required to implement ‘Moreyball’, & it seems that the Rockets are the only team in the West that could upset the balance of power and upset the Warriors. They won’t do it by making Golden State change their style, but rather by beating them at their own game in an even more efficient manner.
What is ‘Moreyball’?
This isn’t a typo. I’m not talking about Moneyball (the book, or the movie).
Moreyball, explained here quite well by Stephen Shea, is a fairly simple way to approach basketball in a more efficient manner. Essentially, a new-age of thinking give credence to the idea that the most efficient shot in basketball is an uncontested shot beside the rim. After that, the next best shot is a 3-point shot. The rationale behind this idea is supported by expected value. According to Nylon Calculus, the league average shooting % on 3–point shots in 2014–15 was 35%. If 35% of 3-point shots go in, the expected value of 1 3-pointer is 0.35 x 3 = 1.05 points. This is therefore a better shot than a midrange 2, which has a shooting % around the league of 40.3%. The expected value = 0.403 x 2 = 0.806. By this logic, the league average player, if they replaced 100 midrange shots with 100 3-point shots, will expect to score 24.4 more points. Over a full season and with a roster full of players, those values add up. Therefore, the central idea of Moreyball is to take lots of 3-pointers and attack the paint to draw fouls.
The evidence of the Houston Rockets implementing this idea is evidenced in the data. Here is, according to NBA Savant, the Rockets’ shot selection chart so far this season:
Now, here is an example of a shooting chart of a standard NBA team such as the Clippers, who are just behind the Rockets in the league standings:
The area around the 3-point line and in the paint is much more occupied in the former picture than the latter. This is ‘Moreyball’ put into action: More 3s
Of course, this line of thinking is insignificant if not for the following:
- A coach that is willing to implement this idea into their system.
- Players that aren’t inherently predisposed to taking midrange shots.
- Players who actually are able to make 3-pointers
- Big men that attack the paint and make their shots down-low.
So the idea of Moreyball is very strong in theory. In practice, it is tough to master.
Why the Rockets are a Threat
The idea that taking a lot of 3-point shots will magically lead to team success is obviously a fallacy. The Brooklyn Nets rank 3rd among all teams in 3s attempted & are last in the entire league, while the Spurs are 3rd last in 3s attempted and are 2nd in the NBA. However, there are certain areas that the Rockets excel in that relate to Moreyball, and make them the most serious threat, in my eyes, to battle the Warriors and win the Western Conference.
1: Lots of 3s attempted + lots made = Efficient Shooting (right players)
Above, I said taking 3s doesn’t necessarily translate to wins. However, the Houston Rockets have taken the concept of attempting 3 point shots and implemented it to a degree that has never been seen in the NBA before.
The Rockets are currently attempting 39.2 3s per game, the most in NBA HSTORY by almost 6 per game (2nd place is the Cavaliers, at 33.2 in this season). This has translated to nearly 40% of the team’s points coming from beyond the 3-point line, which is 1st in the NBA.
This would be a serious issue if the team wasn’t very good at shooting from distance. The Rockets rank 5th in the league in 3pt %, and not just because of James Harden. Between Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, and Patrick Beverley, the Rockets have 4 players in the top 10 in 3s made, and 4 in the top 50 in the league in 3pt%.
Even though the Rockets aren’t the most efficient team in the league regarding made 3s, their ability to be quite successful in the incredible volume of shots they take has made it that being a solid 3-point shooting team is a more efficient use of their offensive possessions. The Rockets are 2nd in the NBA in effective FG% (which factors in that 3s are worth more than 2s), and 2nd in True Shooting % (similar to eFG%, but also includes efficiency at the free-throw line).
What these statistics translate to is a high-powered offense that is almost unmatched. The Rockets have the 3rd highest offensive rating in the league, barely behind the Warriors and Raptors. They also boost the 4th highest real plus-minus in the NBA, meaning that their defensive deficiencies are compensated by offensive proficiency, which is boosted by their reliance on the 3 .
2: Coaching for 3-point shots (right Coach)
As evidenced above, the Rockets clearly take a lot of 3-point shots. However, this isn’t because the team is filled with ‘chuckers’ that think they’re the 4th Ball brother. Rather, the team’s offense is designed to pass the ball, space the floor, and find the best possible shot instead of forcing bad shots.
This is seen by the fact that the Rockets’ players are shooting more of their shots as 3-pointers than they did before D’Antoni’s arrival in Houston. Below is a table of the Rockets’ 5 key perimeter players and how their reliance on the 3-pointer and assisted shots has changed.
Beyond the decrease seen by Harden & Gordon (the team’s primary distributers and therefore record assists) these numbers suggest a serious change in coaching philosophy. This isn’t a one-time occurrence for Mike D’Antoni. When he took over for his first full season in Phoenix, a similar trend emerged. Shooters such as Shawn Marion, Quentin Richardson, and Joe Johnson took more 3s than in the year prior with more of them assisted, while point guards Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa took more 3s that were unassisted.
What the data above suggests is that D’Antoni is encouraging his players to space the floor & find one of the 4 or even 5 players on the court that are strong 3-point shooters. This strategy is best seen by looking at their 24 made 3s earlier this season, which broke an NBA record:
Of the 24 made 3-point shots:
- 20 of them were assisted
- 4 were unassisted and made by Harden
- 0 were unassisted made 3s by anyone else
Watching the video makes it clear that the Rockets create 3 point opportunities by either:
- Moving it around the perimeter until a defender bites or double-teams a player, leaving one of the shooters wide open.
- Having Harden command the point and using his vision to find an open teammate.
- Having Harden realize that the defense is playing slightly away from him to guard the drive or pass, and have him pull up to catch them off guard.
- Drive to the basket, draw in defenders, and kick the ball out to the perimeter to find a man open from beyond the line.
What this shows is that coach D’Antoni is having a real, positive impact on the Rockets’ success. Not every player has the innate 3-point ability of Kyle Korver, Steph Curry, or Kevin Durant. A lot of players won’t be able to evade 3 defenders and launch a 30-foot shot suddenly. D’Antoni is the perfect coach to maximize the abilities a talented roster and make sure that all the 3s they take are as good as they can be.
3: James Harden, MVP Candidate (right Superstar)
The NBA is a very predictable league, in a sense. If you don’t have a superstar, you’re basically toast. Here are the number of players on each conference finalist that were in the top 15 in MVP voting over the last 5 years:
Since 1991, only 4 teams have won the NBA championship with a player who did not finish 5th in NBA voting. Of these 4 teams, 3 had players who finished 6th, 6th, and 7th (Wade, Nowitzki, and Ben Wallace), and 1 was the Spurs, who had 2 in the top 12 and arguably the greatest coach of all time.
As seen in the table, only 2 teams have made the conference finals without one MVP candidate that season. One (the ’15 Hawks) got swept, and while the other (’14 Pacers) won 2 games, both teams lost their 4 games by an average margin of over 13 points. What this shows is that unless you have 2 solid stars and the best coach ever, or a star just outside the top 5 and pull of a miracle, a top 5 NBA player is basically a necessity to see any playoff success.
James Harden has been that star the Rockets need to make noise in the postseason. Here are Harden’s statistics so far this season, along with his rank among players in the NBA (not including his game on Dec. 30):
Points per game & assists per game are easy to judge. Harden not only is a top 5 scorer in the league, but has become a premier distributer since taking over the team’s point guard duties. His 11.9 assists per game is somewhat unheard of, and would be the highest rate in this statistic since John Stockton recorded 12.3 per game in 1996.
Advanced metrics also show that Harden is among the most valuable players in the league. PER, a measure which attempts to measure all a player’s contributions to a per-minute, single number, has Harden 5th in the league. His Win Shares, which is Basketball Reference’s statistic that measures how many wins a player adds to his team, has Harden 1st in the league at 6.8. His VORP, which stands for Value Over Replacement Player, is also 2nd in the league at 3.4 points-per 100 possessions above average. This is while having the 4th-highest usage rate in the league, meaning only 3 players are involved in more plays when on the floor than Harden.*
*(Westbrook is 1st in this category at 42.4%, which would be 3.66% higher than Kobe’s record right now. For reference, the difference between the highest and 17th highest is 3.66%. It’s an unheard of usage rate and it’s honestly mesmerizing.)
According to Basketball Reference, Harden’s statistics have him as the odds-on favourite to win the MVP, with a 44.2% chance. The MVP ladder on NBA.com has Harden 2nd on their list, after having him 1st for the majority of the season prior to this week. This isn’t an article to support Harden over Westbrook or LeBron for MVP, which would be like making me pick my favourite Maple Leafs rookie — it can’t be done.
What the data this season suggests is that Harden is far and away a top 5 player this season. And while having a top 5 player doesn’t necessarily mean a championship is incoming, it’s almost a prerequisite to be considered in the conversation. The Rockets have one this season, and he is perfect for the system they have implemented.
Can They Really Win the West?
The Rockets are a really good team. Yet again, so are the Spurs, the Thunder in 15 & 16, and even the Rockets back in 2014–15. Great teams have attempted to win the West, and are either stymied by the Warriors or lose to one of the other powerhouses in the conference before getting there. So while the Rockets are fantastic, can it be reasonably expected that they could win the conference?
The Rockets have played 5games against their main Western Conference rivals that stand in their way: The Warriors, Spurs, and Clippers. In those 6 games, they are 3–2: That includes 1–0 against the Clippers (who they absolutely shellshocked 140–116 last night), 1–0 against the Warriors (132–127 win in 2OT, in Oakland: not easy to do), and 1–2 against the Spurs (with each of the 3 games decided by 2 points, 6 points, and 2 points: very close).
I don’t think the Clippers are much of a threat to the Rockets. Chris Paul is a machine who was built to be an efficient point guard, but the team lacks so much depth and perimeter defence that they’ll get torched from beyond the arc — evidenced by their 6th worst defensive field goal %.
The Spurs are a very interesting matchup. The two teams could not play more opposite styles of basketball. The Spurs have the highest % of team points scored in the midrange in the entire league, attempt very few 3s, and boast a top 5 defensive rating in the league. Their 3 games this season have been as close as games can be, with only one being decided by more than 1 basket (a massive 6 points). The Rockets certainly would stand a chance in a playoff series against the Spurs, but it’s far from a guarantee.
But the big question is whether or not the Rockets, if they could advance past the Spurs, would stand a chance against the powerhouse Warriors. The teams play incredibly similar styles of basketball. Where the Rockets rank 5th in 3pt%, the Warriors are 4th. The Rockets are 3rd in Offensive rating, the Warriors stand 2nd. Rockets 3rd in Assist %, the Warriors are 1st.
The issue for the Rockets is simply the star power of the Warriors. While the Rockets probably have the MVP favourite in Harden, the Warriors have the reigning MVP in Curry. The Rockets have a talented 3-point guard in Gordon, Warriors have Thompson. Anderson is a solid stretch 4, the Warriors have Draymond. The Rockets may have a better system (and maybe the more established coach), but the Warriors have Kevin Durant! Rockets have a better bench, but the Warriors…well, they have Durant!
Needless to say, it’s incredibly difficult to beat the Warriors, but not impossible. While Mike D’Antoni never won a championship in Phoenix and seems destined to a similar fate because of the Warriors, it can be done. The Rockets have the right philosophy that starts from the GM’s office and makes its way downstream to the right coach, and the perfect star & supporting cast to make this team contend. The Rockets wouldn’t be able to beat the Warriors by attempting to counter their style of play, but beat them at their own game: Find open players, take efficient shots, and attempt a whole bunch of 3s. Let’s see what they can do.