Mind the gap: BREXIT - A generational division

I should start by saying that I am neither a political expert, nor did I study PPE at Oxford and that the views expressed here are my own. I simply spent a morning with google, finding out some information that helped me understand why there was such a generational divide in the voting. I have attempted to source my information where I could, if anything on here is not sourced correctly please take my apologies, I wanted to use facts to help me understand where the UK stands.

As a starting point, I believe it prudent to understand the history of the EU in the context of the UK:

• 1945 World War 2 ends — European Leaders seek to create an accord to ensure a intercontinental war never happens again
• 1951 the treaty of Paris is signed between Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Luxembourg establishing the European Coal and Steel Community
• 1957 the Treaty of Rome is signed establishing the European Economic Community (EEC) ensuring shared resources of coal and steel critical to the rebuilding of Europe; Britain was invited, but declined
• 1961 the UK attempts to join the EEC but is blocked twice by then French President Charles de Gaulle
• 1973 the UK is admitted to the now named European Community (EC) creating a free market for certain commodities between 7 member nations
• 1975 the UK referendum on whether to join the EC is passed with a 67% join vote
• 1987 the Single European Act was signed creating the basis for the common marketplace where all goods, services, capital and people have freedom of movement amongst all EC members — no UK referendum is held on this adoption
• 1991 Maastricht Treaty is signed notably creating the framework for the euro, the UK negotiates the ability to remain with the pound
• 1993 the European Union is formed consolidating previous treaties
• 2002 the Euro is introduced and the UK remains with the pound

Within this time period the membership of the EU grows from 7 members to 28 as of June 2016. In addition the European Supreme Court, the European Central Bank and many other legislative and executive functions of the EU are established.

In the UK EU referendum on the 23rd Jun 2016, the result was divided along a generational gap. The younger age brackets (those between 18–44) voting on aggregate to remain, while those 45 and over voted on aggregate to leave. The shift also between the under 45 and over 45 age brackets is dramatic.

If all of the above age striations had turned out in equal numbers, the end result would have been a remain vote for the UK. However, the voting turnout at the polls made this age divide have less impact. The younger generations turned out in lower numbers. Even Oxford and Cambridge, politically engaged towns, could only muster turnouts of around 72%. Compare this to cities with an average age of 50 who were able to turnout 85% of voters.

Any generalising is dangerous, and I do so here cautiously and to try and identify the degree of divergence from two points on the age spectrum in response to the leave vote on the 23rd. This is a view point on why such a divide exists, and in reality the reasons are much more complex than detailed below. The issue is too complex to fully comprehend from a binary analysis, and age is only one demographic amongst many that show a split in the UK voting populace; however, I believe this goes some way to explain the overall gap.

The reactions from those I see who are under 45 and voted to remain have been of dismay, shock, anger, shame and a feeling of ‘letting the world down’. The younger generations, who of the majority supported remain, appeared unprepared for how emotionally the would feel from a leave result. For those in the over 50, and specifically the over 65+ populace, the reaction has been starkly different. “Something wonderful happened, I have my country back”, “Thanks to the over 65 who remembered how the UK used to be 43 years ago”, amazing, rejoiced, “we were before the EU, we will be fine without it”. This level of divergence in reaction was not seen in the Scottish referendum, or in the recent memory of UK politics.

But why the divide? For many young (those born after 1975) the EU, or its predecessors, has been a constant, a part of being British. They also would likely not have understood or been politically motivated by the wholesale change in structure of the EC in 1987. However, those born before, and much before, will have seen a referendum originally voted on to enter a strict trading agreement between 7 nations; that then morphed into a supranational governmental body with freedom of movement of 28 member states. The apparent betrayal of the UK government in allowing the extending of power of the EU over 43 years appears to have resonated strongly.

This generational analysis of the voting split appears to stem from the diverged viewpoints of the under 45s and over 45s. The first looking forward accepting the current situation and seeing an integrated UK as the future; the later questioning the route the UK took to get to where it is, and attempting to undo perceived injustices. These generalisations I believe explain the swing, they don’t explain everyone’s voting by a long shot, but give a macro level indication of the forces that pushed one end of the spectrum to vote leave, while another remain.