Why should you be suspicious of the so-called Bull-Run?

Bitcoin. Everyone has only that word in their mouths. Since its surge, messages have flourished on networks such as “Do you think it’s time to buy Bitcoin” or “Do you think the Alts season will finally start if BTC falls again?’’

Skeptics wonder if it’s time to invest (yes, so go check out the networks!) while remembering that right now, our friend BTC went a little up too hard, too fast…

Too fast? Let’s see.

With the end of the crash we are currently experiencing, it is, from my point of view, completely abnormal to have a parabolic structure (comparable to that of the end of 2017) and to have a scheme in which Bitcoin sees its value increased by nearly 300%… in 4 months. In a bubble, okay, why not… but for an end of crack? What if this wasn’t a crack end?

Is it a good time to invest in alts, since Bitcoin has probably exhausted its upside potential?

These are questions that need to be asked, and I think there is no better place to answer them. So I will give you my feeling here, purely personal. And as always, I prefer to give you my feeling through something visual rather than give you a long and inconclusive speech. Words will never replace the visual, especially when it comes to money.

The graph that I think should attract your attention is the one that represents Bitcoin’s dominance in % over alts (calculated by TradingView).

The observation is clear: the last time the BTC had such a dominance over the Alts (nearly 65%) was at the end of 2017. The following of the story, you know it.

I’m not saying Bitcoin won’t go any higher. I am not, until proven otherwise, a diviner. I don’t read the future.

Just the probabilities.

And after a bullish rally of nearly 300% in a straight line, I think the odds are more in favor of a strong correction. The upside potential is sharply reduced while the downside potential is huge.

For those of you who wonder why we could stop here precisely, I would answer you that very often the market is irrational and that you shouldn’t try to understand, just interpret what you see. Graphically, it is the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% of the whole crash, and the daily resistance of $12,800 — $13,000.

All we have to do now is find the right timing for short selling: I’ve been looking for weeks for my big short sell as witnessed by my recent technical analyses. Unfortunately, so far I have missed the timing (maybe today?)

And timing is often difficult to find when you are a trader.

As for the alts, BTC is still driving the market (again, I invite you to release your graphics), so I think it is wiser to be patient and observe how BTC will behave and see if this dominance reduces, before investing in a second crypto-currency.

From my point of view, the correction — if there is a correction — is likely to be long: I thought very sincerely that we had finished the crash. But given the structure of the last few weeks, I doubt it.

Who said we make money easily?!?

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