We are all overwhelmed by the COVID-19 related information and how it is impacting our lives, social constructs, economies, perception of risks, and job markets. The transition is yet to be over and no one can predict what will be the long-term consequences of this pandemic.
While the majority of the ‘high-street’ news outlets in the Western world are focused on EU, US and China, I have noticed that there is a strong lack of information about Russia and things that happen there. Despite living outside of this country for the past 12 years, I have huge respect for the nation and feel an unbearably strong sense of disgust with the current (for the past 20 years) political regime, and especially its actions in these difficult times.
Lots of things are published through non-systemic Russian political opposition and other independent sources, however, this information is strictly in Russian and does not reach people outside. COVID-19 has shown that despite all communication channels in the present world, the spread of information can be slowed down drastically by censorship or language barriers.
COVID-19 Russian Story This Far
In this post, I will go through the steps Russia took over the past months and what could await the Russian public just around the corner.
The first measures were announced on the 25th of March in a speech where Putin has compared the Coronavirus with Turkic tribes (Pechenegs and Polovtsy) that tormented Russia between the 8th and 13th century. I would love to see the speechwriters who have suggested such a modern comparison.
Also, just to fit this announcement into the global context, Italy already had in excess of 74 thousand people infected and the lockdown was in effect since the 9th of March. Boris Johnson has already announced the UK lockdown on the 23rd of the same month failing to persuade the public about the ‘herd immunity’.
The Putin’s initial response stated that the week of 30th Match — 5th April will be declared as a paid holiday. Did I call it the first quarantine measures earlier? — Not quite. The country has heard it the same way, people had no guidance, nobody in the lead, zero advice on how dangerous it is and what actions to take. Many saw this as a great time to take a trip within the country or go for a nice picnic (called ‘Shashliki’). Russia is one of the lowest population density countries, but the holidays made the rapid spread possible.
As the global death toll has started to reflect the seriousness of situation the world is in, the government decided to take further steps — extend the holiday (yay, still no official quarantine)until the month’s end and give more freedom to federal subjects. This took place on the 2nd of April.
Many cities and regions, most notably Moscow, have implemented their own lockdown measures. For example, it has been decided that Moscow needs a QR-code system that would issue the permits to go outside. As many could guess the rushed system setup lead to an insane number of bugs in the system, essentially preventing it from becoming a solid tool to slow the epidemic.
Over the following weeks, the leader of the nation has promised people financial support in a form of:
- RUB 5,000 (around USD 70) per child eligible for maternal capital
- Total unemployment benefit of roughly RUB 12,000 (USD 170) for people who got laid off after 1st March
For people outside of Russia, this might seem like a tiny amount and it is. Comparing grocery shopping in the UK and Russia, I can conclude that UK (London specifically) is even cheaper on the majority of essential food items. People are prohibited from going outside and working but are not compensated for giving up their freedoms in any way.
The main offer to the businesses was to take more loans, this decision could allow some businesses to survive, however, the reopening might be problematic given the higher leverage of smaller businesses, especially in the tourism and hospitality sectors.
The lack of people’s and businesses’ support can lead to the greater unrest and even more people turning their back to the government. Maybe the government knows that already? Maybe it is just easier to give up on these people? Maybe the entrepreneurs and risk-takers are not needed in Russia —the ones who watch TV and cannot raise the head and speak up are just better economic units?
I believe this situation would be the key factor in the future development of the Russian economy and its descent into even more ‘shadow economy’, where both employers and employees are better off exchanging cash rather than officially setting up an employment contract.
On the 11th of May, the president of Russia has concluded that the quarantine that has never been officially declared is over. One catch on that though… It was over only at the country level and the federal subject can still take the decisions on their own. This way it was ensured that his hands are clean and nobody in the herd would even think of criticizing such a decision. At the time, the new infections were added by 10k daily and the country was among the top three with the highest infected count.
What could happen next?
Now I would like to jump to yesterday’s (1st June) conference, when Putin has declared that the Victory Day parade is to take place on the 24th of June. By now it really feels that the whole purpose of this great day is to amuse the pride of a specific individual without even considering that the veterans are in the risk group and epidemiological situations can put them in grave danger.
The second announcement relates to the change in the constitution that has been initiated just shortly before the COVID started knocking into the door. The new version cements some human rights already written in the previous version of constitution and allows the current president to participate in future elections resetting the past terms. I will continue covering this story in the future, however, I would like to highlight that the biggest fear I personally have is Putin's reign’ until 2036, and with the coming days, it can become a very real scenario.
