The 2020 Election Looks Like a Three Ring Circus
I have to admit that one of my guilty pleasures is following politics. There isn’t anything partisan about it for me — I’m a political atheist and have no alliance to any political party. The antics of politicians and the media are an unending source of amusement for me.
It’s so entertaining!
Take Joe Biden. You can’t help but feel sorry for the guy.
Every time he opens his mouth something embarrassing comes out. There are You Tube compilations of his embarrassing gaffes with new embarrassments added almost daily. Like denying he is running for President and then letting it slip that he is. Or urging a guy in a wheelchair to stand up and take a bow.
Biden provides comic relief while our political parties adopt a time tested guide as they navigate the path to the 2020 election:
“When in danger or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.”
The Republican party collapsed into a disorganized mess when Trump won the election. Old time GOP stalwarts left the party and longtime senators announced their retirements. Trump has basically taken over the party, not because powerful GOPers are supporting him, but because they’ve thrown up their hands and are running for the exits.
The Democrats are in the same boat, but for a wholly different reason.
They’ve moved so far to the left and have taken identity politics to such an extreme that they can’t even agree on a basic philosophy. They leave facts and reality behind while they alienate their supporters with emotionally driven tirades and reveal a shocking ignorance of American history and democratic principles.
No, Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez, the 22nd Amendment was not passed by Congress to prevent FDR from being re-elected. The Founders stipulated three forth majorities in the House Senate and state legislatures to ensure broad support across the political spectrum for constitutional amendments. By the way, the 22nd Amendment was ratified several years after FDRs death.
The intent of the 22nd Amendment was to prevent progressivism from leading to fascism.
Rep. Ilhan Omar of Detroit has done a stellar job of insulting the Jewish community not only with her comments, but also with her (non)apology. Jews have been an important demographic for the Dems, but that might be changing. It will be interesting to see if the traditionally Democratic Jewish voting block stays home in 2020.
President Obama is so concerned about democratic infighting that he made a rare political statement recently, warning the party about ideological litmus tests and circular firing squads. He is clearly concerned the party will self-destruct in time for the 2020 election.
And it just might.
The Democratic party does not have a unifying message uniting their base. Instead more than twenty contenders have officially entered the race for the democratic nomination for president while the party lacks a coherent platform.
What issues are they pushing to electrify and gain support from the Democratic rank and file?
For Andrew Yank it’s circumcision. Nancy Pelosi wants 16-yearolds to vote. Not to be out done, Bernie Sanders wants to allow incarcerated felons to vote. Kristin Gillibrand is still figuring out what she thinks, but she knows it’s different from what she thought before.
As entertaining as this might be, there is a very serious aspect to such a wide range of trial balloons — big donors don’t give to candidates who don’t have a powerful message that can bring voters to the polls.
Trump doesn’t have that problem.
Although the election is a year and a half away Trump has managed to amass about $20 million in campaign donations, most of which were from individuals contributing under $200. None of the Democratic hopefuls are even close.
That’s a measure of how much grass roots support Trump enjoys.
Trump rallies draw more people than there are parking spaces, and the overflow crowds are driven and enthusiastic. Trump has the knack of articulating powerful messages about immigration, trade, and the economy that electrifies his base.
The only thing the Democrats can agree on is that they don’t like Trump, and that might be their undoing. At least Elizabeth Warren thinks so.
The Gallup organization is posting a very interesting collection of figures with the ungainly title, President Trump Job Approval by Demographic Subgroups, Overall and Within Party Subgroups.
It takes only a glance to see that subgroups of Republican voters approve of Trump in the 80% to 90% range, while approval among Democratic subgroups is in the low single digits.
No surprise there.
The surprise is in the Independent numbers. Almost every Independent subgroup shows significant approval for Trump. If enough of them vote for Trump he will be swept into office in a landslide.
Of course, the only poll that means anything is the one voter create on election day. That day is a year a half away and a lot can happen between now and then.
The thing I find interesting and entertaining is the unknown path leading to that day.