‘China doesn’t take India seriously’

The world’s most populous country doesn’t take any country, except for the United States, seriously and that includes its neighbour, believes China expert John Garnaut. 

They are two emerging powers and neighbours to boot.

In an ideal world they should make their proximity count and work together towards the same goal, thereby expediting the process of development in the region.

However, the reality is far from ideal. The mention of China brings about a certain doubt, an apparent lack of trust in every Indian. Those in the citadels of power don’t think very differently either.

Be it territorial encroachment, border disputes, dumping of goods, military exercises, missile tests or helping Pakistan out in every possible way, China forces its southern neighbour to be on alert at all times.

It is given that the Indian government views anything and everything pertaining to China with utmost seriousness and concern. But does China view India in a similar vein? Does it have the same concerns regarding the Indian modus operandi?

If well known China expert John Garnaut is to be believed that is not the case.

“Am afraid, China doesn’t take any country, except for the United States, seriously and that includes India,” he says, adding, “In fact, it is amazing as to how so little attention is paid in China towards India.”

There’s increasing concern among the Indian authorities and experts on a Chinese aggression but Garnaut, who is currently the Asia-Pacific Editor for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in the Fairfax Media stable, believes it is unwanted.

“A direct military invasion, like what Russia did in Crimea, isn’t something that China does. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have any design on South Asia,” he explains, proceeding to elaborate on his point.

“But it’s much more than a political game. It’s about propaganda, uniting front tactics, splitting enemy forces, planting a story and affecting a battle without actually firing a shot.

“And that is what is happening, both in the Indian border as well as the South China Sea,” he adds.

Indian political strategists have increasingly emphasised on the ‘String of Pearls’ theory and the resultant belief that China is trying to encircle India.

(For starters, ‘String of Pearls’ refer to the network of Chinese military and commercial facilities along the Indian Ocean, that includes strategic centres in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives and a few other countries.)

However, Garnaut doesn’t perceive it as a threat.

“China may have aspirations of being a dominant power in South Asia but that doesn’t necessarily amount to a strategy,” he explains, adding, “The ‘String of Pearls’ is a fantasy.

“I can’t see how it works.” He proceeds to explain why the above theory maybe flawed.

“India has got a substantial naval force. The United States has got ample presence and is very active in the region,” reasons Garnaut.

“And even the most capable maritime powers are aware that you can’t control territory via the sea. You can’t barricade a whole continent,” he continues, adding, “As such the argument regarding the ‘String of Pearls’ potentially doesn’t make much sense.

“In effect we have seen a developing relationship between China and Pakistan, one that has been built over many decades, much better than what China has with any other country in the region.

“In the case of Sri Lanka and Beijing, what is working today might not work tomorrow. These sort of military alliances take decades to build up and I don’t think China has the experience or patience to indulge in that.

“As much as China would like to keep forces in the Indian Ocean, the idea of successfully encircling India I think is more of a fantasy of New Delhi rather than a perceivable reality.”

The Australian, who spent years, working and travelling around China, believes though China may harbour expansionist hopes, it neither has the history nor the technological capability to support them.

“China doesn’t have a colonial history like the several European countries. But they expanded when they could and retreated when they had to,” explains Garnaut.

“The European, or for that matter the American, expansionism was based on technological and military innovation where as in the case of China it is dependent on borrowed knowhow and pilfered military technology,” he says, adding that there’s no cause for concern for either India or the other South Asian countries.

“When it concerns China, it will always be about how well India defends itself,” he continues, adding, “India is fiercely independent, and sceptical of all the emerging powers.

“It only requires clarity of purpose and a sense of understanding that Beijing is very good in planting all sorts of stories that serves its purposes and play differently, with a different set of nations, at the same time.

“I don’t think the Chinese expansionism is going to be a difficult challenge to respond to. It is going to be a nuisance forever but not something that India can’t deal with.”