Majority for BJP…and stability for India

The 16th Lok Sabha will witness a stable government and one that will complete its five-year term sans interruptions. India, for once, is spared of the scourge of coalition politics.

The results are out and it is good news for the world’s largest democracy.

The 16th Lok Sabha will witness a stable government and complete its five-year term sans interruptions.

The Narendra Modi wave, coupled with anti-incumbency factor, was always meant to be the crucial factor in these polls. However, the windfall that it has ensured works in the country’s favour.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has expectedly emerged as the single largest party.

What has come in as a surprise though is the fact that it has registered an absolute majority on its own — more than 272 of the 543 seats, its best ever result. It’s for the first time in three decades — since the Congress won amid the sympathy wave following Indira Gandhi’s assassination in 1984 — that a single party has had a majority.

To say that it is a pleasant surprise for the nation as a whole would be an understatement. For these numbers bring along with them an assurance, that the NaMo government will last its full tenure come what may and consequently will get ample time to fulfil the promises it has made to the people.

In the last couple of decades stability has become an anathema in Indian politics largely due to the volatile nature of coalitions.

The recent history of Indian polity is replete with examples where parochial constituents, vested interests and repeated arm-twisting have ensured the fall of the government at the centre.

For starters, the 12th Lok Sabha was dissolved and fresh elections were called in 1998 when the Congress — having earlier had their way and got HD Deve Gowda replaced — left the United Front government led by I.K. Gujral, after they refused to drop the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), linked by an investigative panel to Sri Lankan separatists blamed for the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, from the government.

Likewise, the BJP-led government collapsed in 1999 when the AIADMK (18 seats), withdrew their support, after repeated threatening the same.

The outgoing Congress-led UPA government also had a tough time keeping its allies at bay during the last decade.

In its first stint, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) — with 18 seats — announced withdrawal of its support in June 2008 after the Congress starting opposing the ruling BSP in Uttar Pradesh.

A month later, the UPA narrowly survived a vote of confidence in the parliament brought on after the Left Front withdrew their support in protest at the India–United States Civil Nuclear Agreement (123 Agreement).

In its second tenure, the DMK gave the UPA a tough time. Having announced that it would provide only outside support initially, the party from Tamil Nadu did a volte face only four days later after its demand on cabinet positions was met.

More recently, in September 2012, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (with 19 MPs then), after repeated blackmailing and getting things done — like having Dinesh Trivedi replaced as the Railways Minister after he put forth a pragmatic budget, announced withdrawal of support after their demands of rollback of reforms (including FDI in retail) were not met.

The DMK subsequently pulled out last March over the issue of a draft resolution at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) of the alleged human rights’ violations of Sri Lankan Tamils, even though the withdrawal didn’t leave the Manmohan Singh government in peril.

The above examples notwithstanding it is also a fact that the era of coalition is a harsh reality in Indian politics, and one that is set for a long haul.

India may be a unified nation on the surface but divisions become apparent when one looks underneath the facade. And it is this division that has led to the formation of a host of regional parties in recent years, thereby forcing an era of coalitions, one where the electorate is both biased and confused.

What is worrisome for a democracy like India is the fact that these regional parties have a myopic vision. In their quest to satiate the demands of their respective states, they conveniently ignore the nation as a whole.

To cite an example, in her two-year tenure as the Union Railways Minister Mamata Banerjee fulfilled most of the promises she made to the people of West Bengal, introducing a host of express and passenger trains, extending existing routes et al.

However, her many populist measures ensured the Indian Railways became loss-making unit. It is imperative here to mention that till that point, Railways happened to be the only department that had never incurred any loss. Therein lay the harsh reality of coalition politics.

It is in this context that BJP’s success assumes importance. It is a fact that the party will continue as a coalition government — the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) — with a total of 340 seats.

At the same time the BJP doesn’t have to bother about outside support, or for matter keeping its allies happy. Moreover, the likes of Jayalalitha and Mamata, despite maintaining strangleholds in their respective states, won’t be able to arm twist the government at the centre on this occasion.

The electorate has given the BJP in general and Modi in particular, the cushion of parliamentary majority and five years of certainty. It is now up to the elected to provide a stable and able government.

And justify the ab ki baar, Modi sarkar rhetoric.