Second-Order Thinking
Good thinking series- Part 3
During the colonial rule of India; there was a time when the British government began to worry about the number of venomous cobras in Delhi. To reduce the numbers, they instituted a reward for every dead snake brought to officials. In response, Indian citizens dutifully complied and began breeding the snakes to slaughter and bring to officials and collect the reward. The snake problem was worse than when it started because the British officials didn’t think of the all possible consequences of this incentive.
This brings us to the tool called ‘Second-order thinking’
Almost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. It requires us to not only consider our actions and their immediate consequences but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Failing to consider the second- and third-order effects can sometimes unleash disaster.
A lot of times new start-ups in order to drive quick interest in their product or service offer a lot of cashback, coupons, and incentives. While it generates the fence-sitters into taking action but it also attracts a lot of deal seekers who are just looking for a deal to cash on and are not the right customers which can be sustained profitably by the businesses so prove a drag on the whole business whose advantage evaporates quickly once the deal or offer is over.
This is a useful model for seeing past immediate gains to identify the long-term effects we want. Some parents bribe their kids with candy/chocolate to study if this done frequently the kind associates effort with reward and his/her intrinsic motivation to study never develops and in fact, he associates studies negatively as he/she has to be bribed to do it.
Always think of some second-order effects some of your actions might have and if you might want to do things differently. You can do this by asking questions like what am I trying to do and what is the best way to achieve it. Once you come up with options do reflect on any unintended consequences that you may result in because of the course of action you decide.
PS: Here are the links to the rest of the Good thinking series. Enjoy :)
