The Mamba Reloaded: Kobe Bryant’s Game in the Age of Analytics
I’m sitting in a cafe in Thailand right now, and what am I doing with my time? I am watching Kobe Bryant highlights in a cafe.
Specifically, the 65-point game versus the Blazers and the 62 points in three quarters where he outscored the Mavericks. I think Kobe is in the argument for the most entertaining basketball player of all time.
Make or miss, Kobe was a show.
While his affinity for long mid-range jumpers with a high degree of difficulty looked cool and added to his style of play, he simply would not be taking these shots in the NBA today.
It would be fun to delve a little deeper and see what adjustments Kobe would likely have made if he were in the NBA today.
For the sake of this discussion, let’s go with Kobe from the 08–09 season, #24 version, not the more arrogant but youthful #8.
Kobe is one of the most skilled players ever, so I have no doubt he would adjust to the changes in the game and score even more efficiently.
KOBE, THE THREE POINT SHOOTER?
“3PAr” measures the percentage of FG attempts that are from three-pointers. For example, if a player attempted 10 shots total and 3 of them were three-pointers, then the player’s 3PAr would be 30%.
In Kobe’s 08 and 09 seasons, his 3PAr was approximately 22.1%, which was virtually the same as the league average 3PAr during those seasons.
The league average today is 38.9%, so even if we assume Kobe just maintained his 3PAr along with the league average, we would see a noticeable increase in his three-point attempts.
In this example, let’s assume that Kobe takes 20 shots per game.
During the 08/09 season, this means that 4.42 of his 20 shot attempts would be from three-point range. In today’s NBA, assuming he maintains a league-average 3PAr, he would be taking 7.8 three-pointers per game out of his 20 shot attempts, which would put him in the top 20 in the league in terms of attempts today.
If Kobe were to maintain his 35.7% three-point shooting percentage from the 08 and 09 seasons, he would be producing 8.35 points per game on three-pointers, as opposed to the 4.77 points he was producing back in 2009 from three-point attempts.
This would be a massive difference in his scoring from three-pointers.
I would guess that Kobe would be a higher percentage three-point shooter in today’s game, given the greater emphasis on the shot. However, we are already assuming a level of improvement by assuming that his efficiency would remain the same despite taking on more volume.
Kobe v. DeRozan
“Okay, just because the league average for three-point attempts is much higher doesn’t mean that Kobe would shoot more 3's. DeRozan still takes long 2’s.“
— Chad, an NBA fan
Thanks, Chad. I’m glad you brought up DeRozan.
In my opinion, DeRozan is stylistically the closest thing to Kobe in the league today. However, there are two main reasons why their games differ.
POINT #1: Kobe was a way more prolific three point shooter than DeRozan POINT #2: And DeRozan is a more efficient mid range shooter than Kobe
Addressing Point #1
It’s worth noting that before Curry and Klay became known for their sharpshooting, Kobe actually held the record for most threes in a single game with 12, which he shared with Donyell Marshall.
Over the chosen seasons, Kobe was 15th in the NBA in 3 pointers made.
In contrast, DeRozan attempted only 1.9 threes per game this past season with a 32% three point %.
If DeRozan could shoot 4% better on more than double the amount of three-point attempts, he would match what Kobe was doing 15 years ago.
15 years ago, damn.
Addressing Point #2
I believe Kobe would have trended towards taking more three point attempts because he wasn’t efficient enough as a mid-range shooter from 16–23 feet to justify the high volume of shots he was taking from that range back then.
On the other hand, DeRozan is a more efficient mid-range shooter than Kobe was, which explains why he doesn’t need to take as many threes.
They both took a similar number of shots from 16–23 feet, but DeRozan had a significantly higher shooting percentage from that range in 2022.
Three Point Conclusion
Given that Kobe shot only 40% from 16–23 and 36% from three, it would make sense for him to increase his three-point attempts, especially considering his proven high volume capability.
This could potentially make Kobe a 60+ TS% scorer in today’s NBA if he maintains the same level of efficiency he had relative to his era.
While Kobe will still be Kobe and won’t stop taking mid-range shots entirely, it’s likely that he would shift some of those contested deep 2’s to beyond the three-point arc and possibly even add more of a post game.
Here’s an insane stat: during Kobe’s MVP season, almost a third of his total shots (29.2%) came from the 16–23 feet range, but he made only 37.4% of them. Surprisingly, he shot a similar percentage (36%) from beyond the arc, despite attempting threes on a much lower proportion (24.6%) of his total shots.
There’s no way that the percentage of looks from 16–23 feet he got isn’t allocated to more threes today.
Quick bullet notes about POST GAME
- In fact, I believe that Kobe would make more use of a deeper post game in today’s NBA. Instead of receiving the ball behind the arc and sizing up his defender from the perimeter, he would start closer to the basket in late shot clock situations.
- Throughout his career, Kobe only took 15.5% of his shots from 10–16 feet, but he made around 44% of them, which was a higher mark for him than his 16–23 foot range.
- I like to imagine that Luka/Tatum and Kobe would share some similarities in terms of where they would score from. All three would be high volume, streaky three point shooters, but still efficient due to their volume. They would also have the ability to operate from a mid-post triple threat position in late clock situations, and to manipulate the defense to get a favorable mismatch and a decent shot attempt.
- Luka is better at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, while Kobe was a better overall shooter than Luka. Kobe is a better ball-handler than someone like Tatum.
Speaking of Luka, this leads me into…
KOBE, THE ORIGINAL HELIO-CENTRIC HUB?
helio-centric: having or representing the sun as the center, as in the accepted astronomical model of the solar system. Kobe is the sun here.
Kobe’s career usage rate is 31.1%, and in the chosen seasons, it’s around 31–32%, with a peak of nearly 39% usage rate in his incredible 35 PPG year in 2006.
Although Kobe’s usage rate in the chosen seasons is still noticeably lower than that of someone like Doncic, who has peaked at around 37–38% over the past two seasons, this disparity is understandable given that Luka plays more of a de-facto point guard role and initiates every offensive set for the Mavericks. He embodies the true essence of a “heliocentric playmaker,” while Kobe could be considered the epitome of a “heliocentric scorer.”
We’ve stylistically called out the similiarities between DeRozan’s ways of scoring and Kobe’s. In 2022, DeRozan’s best season of his career, he recorded a 31.8% usage rate, very similar to Kobe in the chosen season.
And DeRozan ranked #5 in the number of pick and roll possessions in 2022 and was very efficient with his scoring out of these sets.
I imagine that Kobe would attack the pick and roll in a similar way (as a scorer) but could take on an even greater play-making role than DeRozan, by simply the virtue of Kobe being a better scorer.
During the 08–10 seasons, the Lakers made it to the finals 3 consecutive times.
Kobe’s playoff statistics during these seasons were as follows:
I think that while Kobe was primarily a scorer and not the playmaker that Luka is, he was still highly effective in pick and roll situations with Pau during the playoffs. It’s impressive that he was able to maintain his efficiency, and even increase his scoring output in the postseason despite facing better defenses.
In fact, over 60+ playoff games during that stretch, Kobe averaged 5.5 assists per game.
Kobe and D’Antoni
However, it’s worth noting that Kobe was known for being stubborn, and there were disagreements with Mike D’Antoni when he was the head coach of the Lakers in 2013 (and D’Antoni is the best look we have of Kobe with a coach that emphasizes heavy pick and roll play and an obscene amount of threes).
While the pairing ultimately didn’t work out, people forget Kobe did start to buy into D’Antoni’s more decision-making system and put up impressive numbers before tearing his Achilles, effectively and unfortunately ending the last of his prime.
Post All-Star break in 2013 under D’Antoni, Kobe was averaging 28.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 7.0 APG on nearly a 58 TS% in 24 games!
The Lakers were 17–7 over that stretch, which is a .708 win percentage, equivalent to a 58-win team pace.
Kobe’s assists
Kobe had already averaged 6.0 APG twice in his career and consistently averaged over 5 APG. In a more pick and roll heavy offense under D’Antoni, he demonstrated that he could dominate in that role too, even though he was past his absolute peak.
Given how much he would handle the ball in today’s NBA, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kobe had long stretches of “helio-centric” play, where he’s dictating how the defense switches and where he could attack from a scoring position. This attention defensively alone could enable us to be able to imagine him maintaining 6+ APG in today’s NBA.
Defensively
I think Kobe’s defensive abilities might be less recognized in today’s game, but he would still be an all-NBA caliber defender.
While his on-ball defense might be slightly less utilized in today’s game, as offensive players often switch until they find a weaker defender, he would still be disruptive with his hands and conserve his energy more defensively, making his on-ball defense a big asset in late-game situations when the game takes a more isolation approach.
It’s worth mentioning that Kobe received some All-Defensive team selections later in his career that he probably didn’t deserve, but this doesn’t erase the fact that he was a smart defender who used his hands well, particularly when he was focused. When he was younger, he was a terror with the hand-check and aggressiveness he used to play with on defense.
Overall, I don’t have much else to add except that Kobe’s defensive abilities would largely remain the same in today’s NBA.
CONCLUSION
I think that Kobe would still generate similar arguments from both “haters” and “fanboys” as he did during his career.
The main difference would be a slight shift in his shot selection, reducing his long mid-range 2-pointers and incorporating more 3-pointers (but not abandoning them completely), while adopting a more offensive playmaking mindset in terms of where he would prefer to operate with the ball as a play-maker.
In my view, this would highlight areas where Kobe was more efficient (pick-and-rolls, 3-pointers, and triple-threat position scoring) and he would remain an entertaining and dazzling player who could “lead the league in scoring” in a more refined manner.
He would be smooth like DeRozan in pick and rolls as a scorer and passer, but with a more deadly three-point shot like Luka or Tatum, and he would also prove to be above average defensively in the postseason.
I think he could be a 32/7/6, all-D kinda player on 60+ TS%.
On a championship level team. That’s scary.
