This is how Big Oil will die
Seth Miller
3.4K195

Looks like a very convincing forecast, except by the detail that this change may not be so fast as it seems. Photo or mobile communications technologies can outdate quickly because they can be quickly consumed/replaced as well, and their substitution presumes more of a consumer behavior change than a heavy cultural change by the consumer standpoint. Smartphones still make calls and you still have to frame your subject to make photos in a dedicated camera device or maybe a smartphone camera sensor, so culturally they still exist in essence. I wouldn’t assume the same about transportation vehicles. Maybe in a larger time frame, yes, this forecasts feels more realistic, as more than just a consumer behavior change, the fade of auto would need heavy cultural changes from the consumer perspective. The most delicate point is that the auto revolution as you depicts presumes people won’t want to drive themselves anymore — people not into driving today already have their transportation solutions, being simple bicicles, buses commuting or their feet. Also, there will still a gap between telling people that driveless cars are efficient and safe, and getting them to feel convinced about this. Is this gap even totally fillable? Time will tell.

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