How to Screw Up a Robot, Creatively.
You can’t look at your phone or computer these days without reading how cognitive computing, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, automation, machine learning, blockchain and other technologies are poised to transform every facet of our lives, including the future of work.
According to Oxford University, 47% of jobs will disappear in the next 25 years due to cognitive computing advancements. Analysts and scholars alike are predicting that mid-level jobs will be completely obsolete by 2034 — — jobs like accountants, lawyers, teachers, financial analysts and doctors, just to name a few. The ultra-wealthy will, most likely, come out unscathed and AI a boon to those that have the financial resources to leverage massive technological, cultural, and economic shifts. Governments, however, are completely unprepared to handle the notion of wiping out an entire middle class.
Historically, society and employment has always been impacted by technology. Automobiles put blacksmiths out of business. Blacksmiths pivoted and became mechanics, craftsman and makers. Pivots like this may not be as easy as AI and robotics becomes more pervasive. However, this doesn’t mean we’re all destined to a pivot-less career path unable to make a living with no choice other than subsisting on some sort of government sponsored universal basic income program. Moreover, to believe a robot and AI dominated societal transformation will be without chaos and new business and career opportunities, is be a bit of a stretch.
The complexity of integrating AI into the healthcare space was recently illustrated by a stumble between MD Anderson Cancer Center and IBM Watson’s promise to transform cancer care. Four years and $62 million later, MD Anderson has little to show for it. The main reason for the failure cited “management and technology challenges at MD Anderson that make it hard to integrate artificial intelligence into complicated healthcare settings.”
Having experience in the area of AI and robotics ( I led several programs at NASA), I’m uncomfortable with prognostications around this burgeoning technology turning 50% of jobs into the ether. I’m more at ease with the notion that its impact will be more of a matter of degree for specific occupations.
I’m a hybrid creative, geek, strategist, data junkie, operator and entrepreneur that grows health companies by designing, building, selling and delivering amazing products and experiences. The more I read about the predictions that nearly 50% of all jobs will be taken by robots, the more I’m compelled to dig deeper into the data. Anecdotally, the predictions don’t feel accurate, especially when it comes to creative work.
After much introspection, research and discussions with many smart people, I’ve come to the comforting opinion that it’s going to be really difficult for cognitive computing to eradicate creative-based jobs. The resulting consensus and associated rule of thumb — — the more creativity you use in your job and the more people you interact with to solve complex problems, the less likely AI and robots will be filling your shoes in the next few decades.
This rule of thumb appears to be validated in at least one study from Nesta, a nonprofit in the UK. Nesta estimates that 21% of US jobs require high creativity (the use of imagination or ideas to make something new) and 86% of those jobs are at low risk for automation. Goods can be manufactured in a factory of robots but jobs that require imagination and social and emotional intelligence like a therapist, consultant, designer, entrepreneur, artist, musician or a sales professional selling complex products, will be much harder to artificially replicate. The closer you get to managing and deciphering emotions coupled with the nuances and need of the human touch, the farther you also move away from having AI punch your ticket (if you’re interested in finding out about the likelihood of a robot taking your job see the links, below).
Many fintech companies like JP Morgan Chase have made a big push at automating mind-numbing tasks that take countless hours of legal and administrative work. Chase recently reported that their COIN (Contract Intelligence) program does in seconds what took staff 360,000 hours to do in the past. Interleave “smart contracts” by leveraging blockchain technology and those hours will be reduced even more. Anywhere humans are spending time moving products and information from one point to another is a prime target for automation — always has been, always will be.
At the same time, these companies are building out their own internal design teams or acquiring design firms. Capital One’s internal design studio, “Capital One Digital” designs experiences that make it easier for customers to manage their finances. They also acquired Adaptive Path, a user experience and design consultancy and doubled down with another acquisition of design and firm, Monsoon. They apparently see the same rule of thumb applying — — automate complex repetitive tasks and and amp up design capabilities by hiring creatives to assure products and associated consumer experiences are simple, valuable and sticky.
Although moving at a more tempered pace, our healthcare system is headed in the same direction. Healthcare systems like Providence Health, a 159-year old not-for-profit Catholic healthcare provider has founded both a venture capital arm and design and innovation center. The healthcare consumer (the patient) is expecting much more when it comes to their experience. Healthcare payers like the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) are incentivizing healthcare providers largely based around the patient experience.
Healthcare providers are becoming so concerned about the patient experience that they’ve created the relatively new role of Patient Experience Officer. Experience officers are working with companies like Humm (www.hummsystems.com) and leveraging its AI and computational linguistics as a tool to curate patient opinions and create actionable insights in real-time. Other companies like Qualtrics (www.Qualtrics.com) , Medallia (www.Medallia.com) and CognitiveScale (www.cognitivescale.com) are also doing similar work.
The future of work that I envision is one of collaboration between creatives and machine “cognitives”. One where creatives help with the discovery, design and delivery of amazing consumer experiences that meld the best of humans and machines. This will, however, require creatives to come to the table with an enhanced skill set that includes a deeper understanding of constantly changing and improving technologies in the areas of AI, robotics, machine learning, big data, functional art, blockchain and cognitive computing. By doing so this “Creative at Large”, a hybrid of experience designer and technologist, will continue to be sought after by large and small companies alike.
The media hype around the massive loss of jobs in the next few decades makes for great headlines. However, if you’re currently a creative or have decided to enhance your innovational skills, there’s tremendous opportunity to do what visionaries do best and what robots and AI will find difficult to impart in the human experience — — imagination, humor, empathy, spirituality, rebellion and the perception of beauty.
If you want to find out if a robot is likely to take your job take Nesta’s quiz http://www.nesta.org.uk/quiz/will-robot-take-my-job .
If you want to see the full Nesta report “Creativity vs Robots” http://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/creativity_vs._robots_wv.pdf
