A post-Trump globe. And Trump had little to do with it.
Whether you worship or abhor President Trump, whether you are a proud American or one who thinks Americans are ugly humans, get ready for a dramatically new world order. And it has little to do with Trump.
We are ending a three-decade, post-Soviet period where the US was the locomotive for the world with more than our fair share of trade, immigration, military intervention. In the next phase, we will see other rich countries increasingly share the load.
On trade, post-WWII we set up the export engine model to allow Japan, Germany, Italy to recover. 70 years later they continue to benefit and China, Korea, India, Mexico and others also have also got used to that export model. The US cannot be the dominant sponge for taking in most of those exports. On immigration, the US legally allowed about a million a year starting in the 60s. In the 90s, with newer H1-B, L1, and other visas, and the undocumented we are up to over 3 a year. The US cannot be the dominant sponge for those labor exports going forward.
The world does not like US military interventions but does not exactly push the Australians or Nordics to pick up the slack where the world needs policemen. They scream at Trump for not willing to give up on our shale but will not ask Trudeau if he will not use his oil sands or Putin his coal. Spread the burden, world.
We will not slam our doors — but others will need to step up and pick up many of the flows. The Germans need to import more, Japanese need to open more to immigration etc. They would rather the US continue with that status quo while they enjoy their relative prosperity. You can blame Trump or the US broadly for these traumatic changes, but the bigger issue is other rich countries are fighting the need to pick up the slack.
The changes will be dramatic, especially for Americans. We will have more opportunities to export as other rich countries open up. Our small and middle class businesses will need to think much more globally. As our immigration slows down, our businesses will have to rethink apprenticeships and automation. As US multinationals bring back trillions they parked overseas we will find new sources of funding for our infrastructure. I am just scratching the surface on changes that are coming.
You can blame or credit Trump for these changes. It was going to happen anyways. Nature hates vacuums and linear trends.
I had a chance to travel to 60 countries in the last phase. I look forward excitedly to the next phase. I hope you do the same —embrace the coming changes in the new world order.