How to estimate the number of cars in a city?

Vinodh Kumar Ravindranath
1 min readSep 9, 2019

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I came across this question asked in context of product manager interviews, and the answers hovering around a series of guesstimates around demographics, city conditions etc leading to a final “guesstimate”.

However I realized there is a elegant statistical solution to this problem, therefore making this an interesting question for a data scientist interview too. I documented the answer and mathematical proof of the same on quora — please feel free to check out and share your comments.

By Bundesarchiv, Bild 101I-218–0504–36 / Dieck / CC-BY-SA 3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5476517

However in the meantime, I also learnt that this is also referred to as the German Tank problem, a reference to the fact that the allied forces used the serial numbers of the captured tanks to estimate the number of tanks that the Germans had manufactured!

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Vinodh Kumar Ravindranath

Data Scientist. Part-time social activist. Participant in Politics. Learner. AI@Eightfold.ai. Ex-Googler.