Would modern day Singapore as a nation cease to exist if a megaton nuclear bomb was detonated over it?
Originally posted on Quora.
Okay, first of all: Little Boy, which was detonated in Hiroshima, was 15 kilotons. Fat Man, detonated in Nagasaki, was 20 kilotons. What you’re asking for is FIFTY times more tonnage than Nagasaki.
Are you sure?! Well, okay then. Let’s proceed. You sick fuck.
The W59 was an American thermonuclear warhead used on some Minuteman I ICBM missiles from 1962–1969. Its payload? 1 megaton (1000 kilotons)- or the equivalent of 1,000,000,000kg of TNT.
Detonating a 1 megaton W59 in the middle of Singapore would look something like this:
Fireball radius: 0.97 km (2.93 km²)
Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 0.87 km.
Remarkably, the fireball is contained within the reservoirs. Some secret army installations might get incinerated. Same fate for the poor monkeys at MacRitchie reservoir. At least it’s an instant death.
Air blast radius (5 psi): 7.03 km (155 km²)
At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 3.12 km.
Ang Mo Kio, Bukit Timah, Braddell, Orchard… all of those are fucked. Bye bye Holland Village, bye bye Botanic Gardens. Buildings crumble. You can’t tell the difference between Singaporean and Foreign Talent when looking at charred, irradiated remains. There’s some poignant, heartwarming message in there somewhere…
Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 12.2 km (466 km²)
Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 11.3 cal/cm2.
If you’re having some nice Katong Laksa in the open air area, or strolling along Geylang, or Woodlands… you’re in for some serious burns. Oddly, you probably won’t feel a thing. Everything just crumbles and falls off.
But as you can see, people in Pulau NTU would be totally fine. The cockatoos at Jurong Birdpark would live to sqawk another day. My dad would still be happily smoking at his favourite coffeeshop at Bedok South Ave 3. Changi, Pasir Ris, Tampines and much of Bedok would be fine. Some fishermen at Bedok Jetty would be very stunned. Changi Hospital and Temasek Poly would be intact. The Nasi Lemak at Changi Village will finally be the undisputed best in Singapore.
EDIT: I WAS WRONG, OOPS.
Turns out that I was using an oversimplified, outdated model. People in NTU and Pasir Ris will NOT be “totally safe”, they’ll just get burned less badly. Sorry, mum and dad. Sorry, cockatoo.
Estimated fatalities: 1,023,510
Estimated injuries: 2,219,640
1 megaton isn’t the biggest thing around. Not even close. The largest bomb ever designed was the Tsar Bomba, by the USSR- 100 megatons. They never tested it, because it was too scary. The largest ever tested was the 50 megaton Tsar Bomba.
What would that look like if detonated over SG?
Cheebye. Batam and Kota Tinggi also kena. You die. I die. Everybody die.
Source: NUKEMAP was what I used to get these figures. Turns out there’s a new and improved version- thanks Eric Valega P for pointing it out- here: NUKEMAP.
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