Windows 10 Mobile for consumers is not dead, but will be.
First I want to tell you that this is obviously just my opinion, and you don’t need to agree with it.
But the reality is simple, Windows 10 Mobile is not dead, but would be better if it was.
Microsoft is ending Lumia production, and sells will go only while stock lasts. This should be expected because Nokia (and Microsoft) almost always ended production after one year of launch, but the thing is that won’t be any new phones from Microsoft for a while, if it happens. Rumor says that Surface Phone may launch later 2017 or even 2018. Why would take so long? For two reasons. Microsoft want to “relaunch” phone business on Microsoft and also because they will be doing a major effort on Continuum for Windows 10. You would be surprised.
Meanwhile, there will be just Elite x3 and some other phones, from smaller OEMs. Yeah, even HP is smaller, because they are not a Phone company. If it was LG, Samsung and some other big companies selling Windows phones, things could be different. And they would need to REALLY sell, all carriers, world wide sells, ads. Things that would never happen. Besides that, Elite x3 won’t sell on any carriers or make ads either. They are focusing on enterprise. I’m not sure if they’ll be successful selling it to companies, but HP is super stronger on enterprise segment, so don’t doubt it.
If HP falls on selling Elite x3 on enterprise market, no OEMs would ever do a Windows 10 Mobile again, and this may include even Microsoft with Surface Phone.
But the thing is, consumers will suffer using Windows 10 Mobile because developers won’t develop apps for it. There’s no reason to develop apps for a few users. Without Lumia selling, Windows 10 Mobile marketshare will literally disappear. There will be new app of course, but probably just for enterprise segment, as we have seen with VMWare.
I’m reading your mind and you are saying “you are forgetting about UWP”. NO, I’m not. Most app installs on Windows Store is on Mobile, even with less users. Even if Windows 10 gets to 1 billion of users, that 1 billion would need culture of installing apps from Store and that’s why Microsoft is putting Win32 apps so people would download UWP without noticing it. But it will work? This is another story.
So why would be better if Windows 10 Mobile was dead? Because it has been years of winding users that something magical will happen in the next release, and history just confirms that it will not happen. Because has been lost at the time Ballmer laughed iPhone. And that’s why Microsoft has been focused on iOS and Android, because they know it. Sorry kids, but there’s no good future for Windows 10 Mobile.