BitCoin fork and the road ahead

Cryptocurrency prices are tumbling and the market is downtrend. There has been many speculations around what is happening and in this blog post I am going to give you a rundown of events that are upon us and I believe are the main triggers of this turmoil.

Let me relax your mind at the beginning, nothing sad is happening to the Blockchain technology itself, in fact we are witnessing wider adoption of this smart technology on a daily basis, not convinced? read THIS.

However, the Crypto-currency markets have been volatile and downtrend since last week and entered into what traditional equity market analysts label as a bear market. Digital coins are currently worth around $80 billion, down from a market capitalisation of $100 billion on Friday.

Many people asking what is happening and why is the market crashing? You may even wondering whether this downtrend is over now.

As it’s clear from the following graph, the turbulence may be far from over, as rival bitcoin enthusiasts are set to adopt two competing software updates at the end of July. This has raised the possibility that bitcoin split in two, an unprecedented event that would send shock waves through the entire sector.

Market depth of ETH

I believe that the following events are triggering this bearish market:

  • 21 July: SegWit2x software will be released and supporters begin using it.
  • 21 July — 31 July: The community monitors how many miners deploy SegWit2x. If more than 80 percent deploy it consistently, that should signal community-wide adoption of SegWit and the avoidance of a split.
  • If a majority do not deploy, expect anxiety within the community to grow as the focus shifts to the 1 Aug. deadline.
  • 1 Aug : UASF is deployed by its supporters, who begin checking if bitcoin transactions are compliant with SegWit.
  • If after 1 Aug deadline majority of miners do not deploy SegWit2x or otherwise accept SegWit — or — if UASF supporters do not back down, then two versions of bitcoin’s Blockchain could come into existence: a UASF-backed one where only SegWit transactions are recognised, and another where all trades including SegWit and non-SegWit are recognised.
  • If a split occurs, bitcoin will likely begin existing on two Blockchains in parallel, resulting in two versions of the cryptocurrency. In that case expect traders to quickly re-price the value of both, likely leading to massive volatility.

To conclude, I suggest you sit tight and act smart to avoid future disappointments. :-)

My twitter: @MattVojdani