Latinos in Battleground States support gun control & abortion rights
Latinos are the second largest voting bloc in the country and disproportionately reside in critical battleground states where they are also the fastest growing voting bloc. Candidates hoping to win in November and beyond will need to appeal to Latinos and the issues that matter to them. In order to understand how Latinos feel about two of the most salient issues in the country — abortion rights and mass shootings — Change Research surveyed 1,033 registered Hispanic and Latino voters in the seven key battleground states of Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania from June 2–7, 2022 on behalf of Voto Latino¹.
A strong majority of Latinos are concerned about their personal safety from gun violence and believe weak gun laws are a major reason why perpetrators are capable of inflicting such carnage. Overwhelming majorities support many common sense gun safety laws Democrats have proposed and believe there would be fewer mass shootings if they were to be enacted. Latinos are also ready to reward leaders who take action on gun laws: an overwhelming 69% are more likely to support candidates who support the gun laws tested in this poll, including roughly half of Republican Latinos.
Latinos also fear for their reproductive freedoms as the conservative majority on the Supreme Court indicates it is prepared to overturn Roe v. Wade. Over two-thirds of Latinos support the right to an abortion in all or most cases.
Other findings:
- Latinos overwhelmingly think mass shootings are a big issue in the US with 86% saying it is either a crisis or a major issue. Latinos are fearful for their personal safety from mass shootings in public places, with 69% saying this worries them either “a lot” or “some”.
- Large majorities of Latinos support many common sense gun laws they believe would make them safer from mass shootings and they are ready to reward leaders with the courage to act. An overwhelming 78% of Latinos agree that “common sense gun safety measures can be passed while still respecting the Second Amendment rights of responsible gun owners” and 57% strongly agree with that. Various policy propositions:
— Requiring background checks on all gun purchases. 82% strongly support, 9% somewhat support. With 99% of Democrats, 90% of Independents, and 80% of Republicans
— Requiring gun safety training courses before the purchase of a handgun. 72% strongly support, 15% somewhat support. Requiring gun safety training courses before the purchase of a handgun also has broad support at 87% of Latinos. 98% of Democrats support this, 84% of Independents, and 73% of Republicans
— Banning the sale of assault weapons. 53% strongly support, 9% somewhat support. Banning the sale of assault weapons is supported by 62% of Latinos overall, with a majority (53%) of Independents supporting the policy compared to 42% opposing.
— Banning the sale of high-capacity magazines. 52% strongly support, 10% somewhat support. Banning the sale of high-capacity magazines is supported by 62% of Latinos. 56% of Independents support the policy, compared to 36% opposing.
— Increasing the minimum age of purchasing a firearm to 21 years old. 68% strongly support, 11% somewhat support. Increasing the minimum age of buying a firearm has overwhelming support among Latinos at 79%. Republicans are at 58%, Independents at 78%, and Dems at 96%.
— Prohibiting the open and concealed carry of firearms without prior safety training or a permit. 65% strongly support, 13% somewhat support. Prohibiting carrying firearms without safety training or a permit polls at 78% among Latinos, with 56% of Republicans, 74% of Independents, and 95% of Democrats in support.
— Requiring firearms to be safely stored in homes with children. 77% strongly support, 9% somewhat support. 87% of Latinos support requiring firearms to be safely stored in homes with children, with 96% of Dems in support, 88% of Independents, and 74% of Republicans.
— Creating a “red flag” law that would allow family members or law enforcement to remove guns from someone who is acting violent or unstable. 63% strongly support, 15% somewhat support. 78% of Latinos support red flag laws. A majority of Republicans do at 52% compared to 42%, a clear majority. 79% of Independents support these laws as well as 97% of Democrats.
— Required licensing for all gun owners. 66% strongly support, 10% somewhat support. 76% of Latinos support requiring licensing for all gun owners, with 97% of Democrats and 78% of Independents in support. Nearly a majority of Republicans support mandatory licensing at 46%.
— A mandatory wait period when purchasing a gun. 64% strongly support, 15% somewhat support. Mandatory wait periods are overwhelmingly popular at 79% among Latinos. Even among Republicans, 60% vs 38% opposed. Among Independents, 76% support mandatory and wait period, and among Democrats, 96% do.
- Latinos believe gun laws in their state are not restrictive enough and are frustrated with the lack of action from their leaders at every level of government. Six-in-ten Latinos in these battleground states say that their state gun laws are not restrictive enough, and only 10% believe that they are too restrictive. Latinos identify limited mental health resources, gun laws, and gun culture as the factors that contribute most to mass shootings in their state.
- Latinos are pro-abortion rights and support laws to protect their right to abortion care. More than two-thirds of Latinos believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases (41% legal in all cases, 27% legal in most cases) and only 10% believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. Support for abortion rights is particularly strong with women and those under the age of 35.
- Based on what you know, do you support or oppose a law to protect the right to access abortion care throughout the United States
— Similarly as above, 65% of Latinos would support such a law. 68% of Independents and 90% of Democrats say they would support such a law. - Latinos are galvanizing in response to the Supreme Court’s likely decision to overturn Roe. Three-in-four Latinos are paying attention to reports of the leaked draft of the U.S. Supreme Court opinion that indicates the conservative majority intends to overturn Roe v. Wade this year. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Latinos are more motivated to vote in November as a result of this opinion and 52% are much more motivated. Latinos supporting a generic Democratic candidate for Congress and supporters of abortion rights are disproportionately likely to say this decision motivates them to vote in November. It is also motivating to 52% of Latinos who did not vote in 2020.
Latinos in battleground states will determine the outcome of critical races in 2022 and the balance of power at every level in the country in 2024. They are paying attention to the threats to their safety and bodily autonomy — from opposition to sensible gun safety laws to prevent mass shootings to the intention to roll back reproductive freedom for women — and are motivated to reward leaders who share their priorities. Candidates on both sides of the aisle should take notice if they hope to be politically successful in November and beyond.
¹ On behalf of Voto Latino, Change Research polled 1,033 Hispanic and Latino voters across AZ, NV, TX, FL, GA, NC, and PA from June 2–7, 2022. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is 3.1%. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads & text messages that point people to an online survey instrument. Post stratification was done on state, gender, age, education, and 2020 presidential vote.
METHODOLOGY
Change Research surveyed 1,033 registered Hispanic and Latino voters across AZ, NV, TX, FL, GA, NC, and PA from June 2–7, 2022. We used some or all of the following sources to recruit respondents:
- targeted advertisements on Facebook
- targeted advertisements on Instagram
- targeted advertisements on individual websites via Google and/or Facebook’s ad platform
- text messages sent, via the Switchboard platform, to cell phone numbers listed on the voter file for individuals who qualified for the survey’s sample universe, based on their voter file data
Regardless of which of these sources a respondent came from, they were directed to a survey hosted on Surveymonkey’s website.
Ads placed on social media targeted any person living in AZ, NV, TX, FL, GA, NC, and PA. As the survey fielded, Change Research used dynamic online sampling: adjusting ad budgets, lowering budgets for ads targeting groups that were overrepresented, and raising budgets for ads targeting groups that were underrepresented, so that the final sample was roughly representative of the population across different groups. The survey was conducted in English.
The survey was commissioned by Voto Latino and conducted online by Change Research. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, region of the state, and 2020 presidential vote. Weighting parameters are based on the demographic composition of 2022 general election voters, based on probabilistic turnout scores provided by Deck. These scores incorporate past vote history and demographic factors, as well as environmental factors including media coverage, fundraising numbers, and candidate demographics.
The modeled margin of error* for this survey is 3.1%, which uses effective sample sizes** that adjust for the design effect of weighting. This research, like all public opinion research, does entail some additional unmeasured error.
* We adopt The Pew Research Center’s convention for the term “modeled margin of error”(1) (mMOE) to indicate that our surveys are not simple random samples in the pure sense, similar to any survey that has either non-response bias or for which the general population was not invited at random. A common, if imperfect, convention for reporting survey results is to use a single, survey-level mMOE based on a normal approximation. This is a poor approximation for proportion estimates close to 0 or 1. However, it is a useful communication tool in many settings and is reasonable in places where the proportion of interest is close to 50%. We report this normal approximation for our surveys assuming a proportion estimate of 50%.
** The effective sample size adjusts for the weighting applied to respondents and is calculated using Kish’s approximation (2).
(2) Kish, Leslie. Survey Sampling, 1965.
