The Rise of Rafael Leao — Player Spotlight
“The first time I saw Leao — I knew he was special”. These were strong words from Sporting’s technical director — a club that has created and fostered the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Luis Figo. Despite this — Rafael Leao’s journey to becoming a superstar in Milan has been quite peculiar and turbulent.
Leao agreed to ‘mutually’ terminate his contract in 2018 from Sporting before moving to Lille. At Lille, he scored 8 goals in 26 games and in the following season he was bought for a fee of close to 35 million euros by AC Milan. It was quite a gamble for a talent that was raw and still relatively unproven. As fate may have it — perhaps Leao and AC Milan both needed this move. AC Milan is a great club with a prestigious history giving Leao a huge platform to showcase his talent, but Milan was also in dire need of ‘franchise’ players that can lead them to trophies. It may have been in a match made in heaven.
If you told the Rossoneri fans that Leao would become the club’s star a few years later — they would’ve ridiculed you and ultimately come back to the same narrative around the club’s poor scouting in recent years. Leao’s start at Milan followed the stop-start trajectory that his whole career was taking. He had scored on big occasions which included a 4–2 win over Juventus, however, in his first two seasons he only had 12 goals in over 60 appearances. Time was in Leao’s favour and Milan’s favour.
The graphic above only further enhanced the narrative that Milan still had a ‘diamond’ in Leao. His ability to win most of his individual battles, and to create spaces that led to key passes (90th percentile in Expected Assists, 75th percentile in Progressive Carries) highlighted that he was an attacking and progressive influence. However, Leao knew his weakness lay in his shot-creating and making ability as indicated by 28th percentile in shots in Serie A, quite low for a player who played quite centrally or quite high up the pitch.
Perhaps — Leao could also blame the system. The progressive passes he received were below the 50th percentile — Milan fans know that if this was currently the case a lot of their attacking output would not be as high. The rise of Rafael Leao coincided with the rise of Pioli — as Pioli made his signings and settled into his Milan role, seemingly Leao also settled in. What tactical instructions did Pioli give to Leao?
Tactical Role:
Leao seems to have been given one major instruction from the manager — that is to get involved in goals. A detailed look at his stats proves that approach — in the 2021/22 season Leao’s attacking output increased from the 29th percentile (in 2020/21) to the 66th percentile, his ball retention increased from 31st percentile to the 61st percentile — perhaps due to his slightly bulkier frame last season. Leao’s dribbling was at the top of the league in the 99th percentile. The result? 11 goals, 8 assists, Serie A MVP and Serie A champion.
To understand Leao’s role — the best game to study would be his starring role against Inter Milan earlier this season. It encapsulates the growth in his game, the confidence in his role and the rise of Rafael Leao.
Instantly, at the beginning of the Milan derby earlier in the season — as seen in the image above Leao is playing quite central and almost joining Giroud as a 2nd forward. While — this isn’t a fixed role as Leao is often deep in possession or quite wide for individual duals — it is a testament to his hunger to be involved in goals. This is one of the aspects that has changed in his game and helped him rise as a top prospect in Europe.
The versatility of his role is further proven in the image above as Leao is almost back in his own half to receive the ball and look to drive at defenders to create space to launch an attack.
This can also be seen in an attacking transition as well as Leao is almost hugging the touchline while charging forward at the Inter Milan defence — Leao can easily be compared to Vinicius Jr — while Leao has a much bigger frame. Both the wingers possess a highly treasured burst of speed and athleticism that make them quite hard to fully nullify or ‘pocket’ in a game as they can turn even 5 seconds of possession into a potential goal-scoring threat.
The image above is a great example of the importance of Leao in unlocking the rest of Milan’s attacking players. His ability to get past his man and into space allows him to whip in dangerous crosses from out wide — in the following cross, he whipped the ball into quite a dangerous area as Bastoni hit his own crossbar in trying to deal with the venom of the ball.
This can also create instances in which Leao has space for himself and with his much-improved shooting accuracy and power, it only makes him even more dangerous.
Leao’s finishing ability was at its peak against Inter Milan. While the finish in the image below seems to be a straightforward one — the technique and composure that Leao shows to slot that into the top right corner on a Derby Day is a result of hard work in the training ground but also built-up confidence due to being a star attacking outlet in a title-winning season for AC Milan.
Ultimately, while analysing Leao’s role and how it allows him to thrive — there is a major conclusion that cannot be ignored. Leao possesses serious natural talent and when combined with his athleticism and speed he can torment and wreak havoc amongst defences.
Proof? Here. Leao receives the ball at the edge of the box and goes around 3 defenders due to his sheer pace and strength before calmly slotting the ball in the corner to give Milan a 3–1 lead, in which 2 of the goals were his after they fell 1–0 down early. The commentary team rightly preaches that ‘He has reached superstar status’. The Sporting Lisbon reject has turned his natural talent into an attacking machine through sheer hard work in a system that allows him to thrive.
To pinpoint the rise of Rafael Leao to one reason is quite difficult. But a valid conclusion that can be drawn is that AC Milan has their own star player in Leao — if Leao can replicate some of his domestic performances for Portugal in Qatar, then it will go a long way in cementing his name in the world game. It will also go a long way in fuelling his transfer narratives — with it already being rumoured that the likes of Chelsea are interested. Whether Leao will stay at Milan will be a matter to closely watch. More importantly, Rafael Leao deserves a close watch — if there is a platform or TV near you showing Serie A football then be sure to check out a game of his. You won’t be disappointed.
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