March Madness : 5 Sleeper teams that can make a run in March

Intro:

There is always a team that enters the tournament under the radar. They are not hyped or as heralded as other teams for whatever reason. Perhaps they play in a small conference or they were just ho hum throughout the year. Whatever the case people are not picking them for some reason. It is this unheralded group that usually makes a run in the tournament. They come from nowhere to make a run. We saw it last year with Oregon State and UCLA. No one was talking about them. There was no hype or discussion about either one. UCLA was predicted to be eliminated by Michigan State and made the final 4. Oregon State was considered. to be undeserving to make the tournament. They made the elite 8. Needless to say there are. times where a team comes out of no where to make a run.

So what do I mean by “sleeper” teams? Well teams that no one is talking about. Teams that are under the radar. I will use a combination of kenpom and the eye test as a way to determine who I believe will be. the unheralded teams to make a run. I like teams that are guard centric as they are the ones that usually make a run in the tournament. You need to have a star guard that can lead you into the tournament and beyond. You need a playmaker. Someone that can take over the game when in crunch time. I also like teams with solid defenses some that can clamp down when need be. But most important I wanted to find teams that have the talent to make a run this year. Teams with players you may not have heard of, but will after the tournament starts. Let’s get to it.

Memphis

Now I am no Penny Hardaway fan. I think that Memphis could find a better coach than him. He’s more clown than coach. But Penny can recruit there is no denying that. Penny is an ace when it comes to recruiting. This Memphis team is arguably one of the most talented rosters in the country. Led by Jalen Duren and a stacked trio of guards, Memphis is a sleeper. They decimated Houston twice. I know that a few are hoping onto this bandwagon. now, but I think a lot of people still have doubts especially about Penny. I am, however, willing to put aside my doubts of Penny to say that I believe this Memphis team can be an Elite 8 team and perhaps a borderline final 4 team if the cards break their way. That is how much faith I have in this team in the raw talent. Could this burn me? Absolutely, but I am willing to roll with them.

This defense is absolutely scary to watch. They are 23rd in Kenpom and the top defense in the AAC. They are so long and disruptive. They have a legitimate eraser in Jalen Duren who averages 2.2 blacks a game. When you talk about a no middle defense it is predicated on having a big eraser in the middle. Someone that makes the opponents fear coming into the middle. Well Memphis has that in the one and done player. Duren is a younger version of Oscar Tshibwe and that should scary the living daylights out of teams that are playing Memphis. There’s not a lot of teams that can compete or matchup with a player like Duren. But it’s not just Duren that someone to watch out for on defense. Alex Lomax, the heart and soul of this team, is one of the toughest guards in the country. Teams do not want to face the pressure he will bring on their guards. He leads the league in steals. with nearly 2 a game and is in the top 10 in the nation in the category. Lomax comes off the bench and is a jolt of energy. Not many teams can match the inside out defensive pairing of Lomax and Duren. That will give Memphis an advantage over teams without this type of lineup.

Unlike most great defensive teams, Memphis plays at a very fast tempo. In fact they rank 8th in Kenpom in tempo. Unlike the no middle zone defense or pack line, Memphis wants to pressure teams. Pressure creates turnovers and with their length this feeds into what Memphis wants to do. They will blitzkreig opponents to get out in space and run. If they can get the ball to Duren out in space then teams better watch out. They will try to out-athlete Now they do. struggle when you slow the tempo down which could be their Achilles heel if they run into a Baylor or Texas Tech. But if they get those teams sped up then they will play right into Memphis hands. With Lomax providing a great sixth man off the bench and a star in Duren, this Memphis team has all the potential in the world to make a surprising run in this tournament.

Loyola Chicago

I love watching this team play. What Drew Valentine has done with this team is impressive. They have not lost a beat since he took over. According to Kenpom, Loyola is the 24th best team in the country. They have the 43rd best offense and 23rd best defense according to the metrics. Let’s not forget that this is the same Loyola team that made a sweet 16 run last year minus a few key pieces. They have an absolute star guard in Lucas Williamson who will become a household name by the end of the tournament. So why is this team so underrated this year? Why is no one talking about them? Is this solely because Porter is now at OU and everyone thinks they are going to crumble without Porter Moser at the helm? Whatever the case those people are seriously mistaken if they want to doubt the Ramblers again.

Now one issue is they are an incredibly small, smaller than when Porter was the head man. This is because Drew Valentine knew that Loyola was losing their talented forwards that had carried them last year. Instead he wanted to go to a more guard centric lineup. This may be a problem if Loyola were to face say a Baylor, Gonzaga, Memphis, North Texas where length and height is their strengths. But if Loyola gets lucky than the lack of a true big man can play right into their hands. This team is deadly from the floor. They have the 18th best field goal percentage in the country. This is thanks to their guard centric lineup. Loyola is methodical when it comes to playing the percentages on being efficient. They do not take bad inefficient midrange shots. Drew Valentine has improved their efficiency with this smaller lineup.

Lucas Williamson will make a name for himself this tournament . The senior guard is the Ramblers leading scorer. He is a special talent and if any power school had him then Lucas would be a lottery pick. That is how much of a talent he is. At 6’4 he is a lanky and a threat from anywhere on the court. Williamson can drive and shoot. He is a creator and finisher. in every sense. of the word. Per 40 minutes, Williamson has a 46% field goal percentage. That is extremely impressive for a guy who used to average 8 points a game last year. Williamson is a threat everywhere he steps onto the court. The Tournament is always shaped by tremendous guard play. With an elite guard in Williamson, you can ride Loyola deep into this tournament thanks to. the play of Williamson.

Yes Porter Moser is no longer at Loyola and yes they have a first year head coach. But if you doubt this Loyola team just because of that then you are in for a rude awakening. This team has the talent and the intelligence to make a run. Plus they are old and experienced. They’ve been a part of the most celebrated class Loyola has ever had. If you are looking for a team to really make a run it’s this team.

Dayton

I absolutely love this team and am prepared to have my heart broken if they don’t make it in. But I am going to roll with Dayton if they make the tournament. They are one of the most fun teams to watch on the tournament bubble. The Flyers should be in the tournament, they’re the second best team in the A10. Dayton has beaten the league leader Davidson and St. Louis. The Flyers have arguably the best player in the conference in DaRon Holmes who is a freak athlete. They have one of the best sixth men in the country in Koby Brea. Oh and add to the fact that they are the youngest team in the country. They can compete with the athletes that say a Kansas or Duke has. You want a bold prediction? This is a sweet 16 team. They have the talent to do it, it’s just a matter of if they can put it all together.

Dayton’s Kenpom stats and regular stats don’t jump out at you. They are a top 50 team on Kenpom at 47. Their offense is 70th, but their defense is 40th. A solid team that doesn’t immediately jump out at you on paper. The team only averages 69.1 points a game. Yes their defense is solid, but they have a -1 turnover rate. They do not do anything exceptionally well according to the stats. That is unimpressive given how bullish I am on them. It seems like they would just be easily bounced out of the tournament. A team that would squeak into the tournament and then get eliminated in the first round. So why am I saying that they could reach the sweet 16? Well there is only one word for that and that is talent. Dayton is one of the most talented teams in this tournament and that should scare whoever they face.

Flyer fans like to say that they “have ten freshmen.” That isn’t entirely true. They have. about five to six true freshmen the rest are red shirts. Whatever the case their roster is absolutely loaded with talent. Obviously the stand out is the A10 rookie of the year DaRon Holmes. Holmes is a 6’11 freak of nature and is only 18. The four star prospect was the first Flyer player to win the rookie of the year since a player by the name of Obi Toppin. We all saw what he was like when he was at Dayton. Holmes is on pace to be just as good or if not better than Toppin. Just think about that for a second. Anthony Grant. basically brought in a younger Obi who has dominated the league. Holmes averages 11 points a game along with 2.3 blocks. He’s second on the team in rebounds. He’s going to be a force in the tournament. But it’s not just him. who should terrify opponents. Theres Koby Brea, the sixth man of the year in the A10, who has been on fire the last 6 games averaging 14.0 points a game. Toumani Camara is another outstanding forward on this team who is the defensive workhorse. Then there’s Malachi Smith, one of the more exciting guards in the country. He is the player that makes Dayton go. He’s their third leading scorer and lead assist man. He also averages 4 rebounds a game. He does a little bit of everything. He’s their best perimeter defender. Malachi Smith is going to make a name for himself if Dayton gets into the tournament.

This is my riskiest pick as they are “on the bubble.” However, this was a team that went toe to toe with Kansas and won. Beat a ncaa bound Miami team and beat Virginia Tech. A team that is getting hot at the right time. They have a loaded roster full of nba picks and come at teams in waves. Dayton could be the real dark horse to do something no one saw coming this year.

San Diego State

So everyone is going to ignore the team in the top 25 on Kenpom with the 2nd best defense in the country? Well then I will absolutely take them. The Aztecs are always going to be a defensive minded team. A team that wants to make a game a bar room brawl. They are extremely tough. That was what Steve Fisher built the program on and Brian Dutcher has continued. This version of the Aztecs are meaner and more aggressive. Yes, they have some bad losses like to a bad Utah State team. But this is the same team that beat St Mary’s. Kenpom has this has the 2nd best defense in the country. One cannot ignore that. Yes, their offense has been putrid and is 110th. However, it is this efficient and effective defense that makes them a team to watch out for. If they get say Texas in the first round, a team that plays at a slow tempo and is defensive oriented, then prepare for San Diego State to make a run.

The Aztecs are led by guard Matt Bradley who averages 18 points a game. For a team that “lacks offensive weapons”, they sure have one in Bradley. The Cal transfer has been outstanding. He earned best newcomer in the Mountain West this year. He has been a revelation for the Aztecs. They haven’t had a true finisher since Kawai was there. Bradley gives this version of the Aztecs what they didn’t have in previous years. A scorer and a playmaker. This has been missing from the Aztecs with Dutcher in charge. Now they have that in Bradley. His true shooting percentage is 57% which is one of the best in the mwc. This combined with the tough defense makes San Diego State a contender to make a run and upset a few teams.

It’s not just. Bradley though. San Diego State poised to make a run thanks to defensive player of the year Nathan Menash. Menash, the. 6’10 senior, is one of the scariest defenders in the country. He can cover both the. low block and the perimeter. His 7’1 wingspan helps him as well. He is a forceful shot blocker who averages 2.1 blocks a game. His skill set is a great compliment to Bradley. Yes, one could argue that San Diego State is a one trick pony when it comes to making a tournament run. But you cannot ignore how elite this defense is. It’s special and you have to roll with it. That is why I am going to pick San Diego State as a sleeper.

Oklahoma

The definition of a Boom or Bust pick. Oklahoma is one of the most bipolar teams in the tournament. Some times they look like world beaters and the other times they completely look like they do not belong. They are the 37th best team on Kenpom. Their offense is 53rd and their defense is 37. So they are solid, but are they elite 8 levels of special? I think so. This team has so much damn talent on it. Tanner Groves is the guy who makes them go offensively. But then there’s special guards in Jordan Goldwire and Umoja Gibson. We saw this in the Big 12 tournament against Baylor where Goldwire and Gibson took over down the stretch. This three headed monster has all the talent to make a special run. They just need to get into the tournament. Moser Madness is real and with him at the helm, Oklahoma can make a run.

Conclusion

Sure some of these picks may be controversial, but I do not care. If you are looking for 5 teams under the radar to make a run in March look no further than these 3.