The 5 Lessons We Are Learning From California Fires

Wanbin
Wanbin
Nov 4 · 5 min read
source of image

Another year, another round of devastating fires in California. While the fires become a repeating pattern, it is probably worth thinking about its causes and implications. Then ask ourselves, where do we go from here?

Here are some of my thoughts on our reality and future:

  1. Like it or not, climate change is affecting us already.

The California fires start for various reasons. But what do they share in common? The answer is drought and heat.

The Camp Fire that claimed 85 lives in 2018, was started by a faulty electric transmission line, but exacerbated by drought. The town of Paradise usually receive 5 inches of rain per year, but only received 1/7 of an inch from May to November that year (source). July 2018 was also the hottest month ever recorded in California’s history (source). This year the trend continues.

A strong wind can create sparks by blowing things into power lines. The Getty Fire this year was caused by a tree branch, which was blown from 25 feet away from the power line and 20 feet up the hill (source).

Lack of humidity and excessive heat then create a perfect condition for the fires to spread, as this article explains. Dry vegetation adds fuel to fire; lack of rainfall also makes it hard to battle with wild fires.

As drought and heat become more and more common in a warming globe, California fires are one of the early signs of climate change effects that hit home for a lot of people. We can expect natural disasters to happen more frequently, and closer to our homes as time goes on.

2. And we don’t know when, where, and how.

The environment is a very complicated system, with many factors interconnected to each other in ways we don’t completely understand.

For example, we know that California experiences various wind conditions throughout the year. We also know about many other characteristics of the state’s environment. Now what will happen when the climate becomes just a little bit warmer? It is hard to predict that the wind will blow some things into power lines, and spark a fire that is hard to contain in the warmer and drier climate.

It is very hard to model a complex system, as it turns out.

Many of our knowledge and practices are based on current understandings of a relatively stable environment. When important factors in the environment change, many of our existing expectations will break. Even if we can imagine many possible scenarios in a shifted climate, how do we know which ones will become true, and when and where? What about the butterfly effect that further complicates things?

Unfortunately often we only know after events happen. Whether or not we can react or adapt quickly and effectively is crucial to our survival. Just ask the ancient Mayans.

Mayan ruins (source of image)

3. The economic development of entire regions might shift gears.

Each time fire brings direct damages, including casualties, property damages, and loss of economic productivity. Besides 85 lives, the Camp Fire also caused $16.5 billion in damage (source).

However, the indirect impact fires have on a region is even more profound.

Regular power cutoff is becoming a lifestyle for Californians in high-risk seasons; air pollution always affects neighboring cities including major ones like San Francisco and Los Angeles, forcing schools and businesses to shut down, and having employees consider moving away even faster than the house prices rising.

I was in SF in 2018 during one of the northern California fires — the sky was red, the city smoked like a huge barbecue, face masks were sold out — it was not pretty.

San Francisco covered in smoke (source of image)

It is hard to imagine families and companies in California not giving second thoughts to their residency of choice. And because California is such an important state in agriculture, technology, and entertainment industries, this could mean gradual yet significant shake-up of the local and national economies.

Another interesting consideration is that accoding to a research conducted at Stanford University, the optimal annual temperature for economic productivity is 13 degrees Celsius or 55.4 degrees Fahrenheit (source). This includes both agriculture and non-agriculture activities.

Currently the average temperature of San Francisco is 57.3 degrees Fahrenheit, close to the optimal temperature. An increase in the average temperature would likely negatively affect the region’s economy. Similarly, climate change will affect economies everywhere in the world.

4. Technology alone cannot save us, although it helps.

For a lot of people, technology advancement keeps them hopeful. After all, we have overcome so many challenges by inventing new technologies. Elon Musk is going to save us all, right?

Some technologies will definitely help. In the case of wild fires, if we can create a power transmission method that does’t involve exposing risky lines in the open air, or if we can decrease our need of transmitting power over long distance by implementing local power generation (e.g. solar power), the fire risks would be lower.

However, as we discussed previously, there are many unforeseeable environmental factors that can cause damage or butterfly effect. It would be extremely hard for us to develop comprehensive tools to help with every cause. Even if we could, it would take a very long time to both develop them and for markets to adopt them on large scales.

That is why we need actions from personal, organizational, and governmental levels. Remember, Elon Musk is developing rockets to send people to Mars, which is nothing like the Earth.

5. This is the new norm we live in.

Almost all discussions about environmental challenges these days try to end on a positive note. While this approach makes sense in encouraging actions, I think it is also important to acknowledge the reality and understand potentially dismal outcomes. At least for me, knowing what might be ahead of us gives me reassurance in face of uncertainties, and allows me to think about the future more realistically.

In meditation, being aware of our emotions is the first step to ultimately regulating them. In this changing world, knowing the reality is the foundation of planning and taking actions.

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