Latest Reuters Data Shows Hillary Losing to Trump, but Bernie Wins

Dustin Woodard
Mar 22, 2016 · 5 min read

As the presidential candidate field narrows, the number of polling participants marking undecided or not sure drops dramatically in election polls. Reuters has been the go-to resource for election sentiment, especially for head-to-head data. The most recent data confirms what many may have feared: Hillary Clinton actually loses in a head-to-head matchup against Donald Trump, while Bernie Sanders beats him easily.

EDIT: Reuters just released new 3/20 data for both candidates, which confirms the trend caught in this article.

I first caught the trend while looking at the Reuters polling data, which uses a 5-day rolling average (this helps smooth out their graphs & shows trends better). The Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump Reuters graph among looks like this:

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From this data, we might come to the conclusion that Hillary wins, but by a slim 1.8% margin. Considering these polls are usually given a 3% margin of error, you could call it a virtual tie.

Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: The Real Story

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Trump is actually beating Hillary by 1.5%

However, these are rolling averages (meaning a combination of several days). Visually you can already see the trend of Donald Trump narrowing the gap, but when you look at the most recent data (March 18th) without the 5 days proceeding, it shows Trump is winning against Hillary Clinton. He wins by 1.5% (37.8 to 36.3%).

Reuters is already a few days behind on updating its data, but I expect in a couple days when the new data is released and the 5 day graphic reflects the new trend, the mainstream media will finally pick up on this.

Donald Trump vs Bernie Sanders

Let’s take a look at how Bernie Sanders fares against Trump. Again, here’s the rolling average:

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Bernie Sanders beats Donald Trump by 11.6% in a head-to-head matchup (among registered voters)

The rolling 5-day period shows Bernie Sanders beating Trump by 11.6%. This is a very healthy lead and a comfortable win. Is the story like Hillary Clinton’s, where the rolling average is masking a more recent change?

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Bernie beats Trump by 18.5%

The short answer is no. Bernie Sanders beats Trump by an even larger margin: 18.5% (49.9% to 31.4%)

This is big news for anyone who still believes that Clinton will do better against Trump than Bernie Sanders. If you are worried about a Donald Trump presidency, Bernie Sanders is by far your safest bet.

Further Analysis: Why Bernie Sanders Does Better Than Hillary

Let’s look at the differences between Sanders and Hillary to find out why he does so much better. Here’s the head-to-head matchup between the two:

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Bernie Sanders has a 2.2% lead over Hillary Clinton

As you can see, Bernie Sanders has held a lead over Hillary for the past 8 days. For the 5-day rolling period ending 3/18, Bernie holds a 2.2% lead over Clinton. Dialing into just 3/18 gives Bernie a slightly bigger lead, but what is more interesting is the people who support the two candidates. Besides age, the major difference is Independents.


Bernie Sanders favors much better among Independent voters (said to be 1/3 of the voting population) when compared to Clinton.

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Sanders leads Clinton by a 31% margin among independent voters.

You may also notice that his lead is widening among Independents. The chart shows a 31% lead, but the most recent day (non-rolling average) shows a commanding 57% to 11% (a 47% lead) for Bernie Sanders.

Trump also beats Clinton handily with Independents:

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Trump beats Clinton by 18% among Independents who are registered to vote.

In fact, Trumps lead is growing as well. For 3/18 (without the rolling 5 days before it), Trump is beating Hillary 49% to 16% (a 33% lead). However, when matched up against Bernie Sanders, he loses the independent vote by 6% on average.

Hillary Loses Democratic States to Trump

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Clinton loses Blue States to Trump

What should scare democrats even more than any of the data I shared above is that Trump beats Clinton in the two strongholds for the Democratic party: the West Coast & the North East. According to Reuters polling among registered voters, Trump Wins the Far West by 40% to 29% and the New England region by 7% (though 3/18 shows a 28% win for Trump). Let me repeat that: Trump beats Clinton in the most important Democratic states!

Final Analysis

Democrats should be very worried if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination. Trump clearly beats her in the general election, even taking the core Blue states every past Democrat has relied upon.

To be honest, I think the data understates Trump’s potential to beat Hillary Clinton in an election. Trump’s primary debate strategy is mudslinging and no candidate has more dirt, than Hillary Clinton. She’s got more scandals and questionable funding than even the Republicans he faced. It’s time for the media to expose this data before Trump becomes the next President of the United States.

People need to know. Please take this graphic & share it among Democratic & Independent voters:

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