Thinking in Bets — Annie Duke

West of the Sun
Mar 14, 2018 · 11 min read
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“Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them. Even when that effort makes a small difference — more rational thinking and fewer emotional decisions, translated into an increased probability of better outcomes — it can have a significant impact on how our lives turn out. Good results compound. Good processes become habits, and make possible future calibration and improvement.”


Score: 7/10


· Resulting — our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome

· Our brains generally aren’t built to understand randomness, luck, and probabilities, but rather cause and effect

· A great decision is a result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge

· All decisions are bets

· Learning from outcomes

· Regret minimization and tactics

· Backcasting — imagining a successful future and what decisions/outcomes were necessary to get there

· Book recommendations


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