US Open Draw Notes and Futures

Whale Capper
Aug 27, 2017 · 6 min read

This post focuses on the recent news and notes, observations about the draw and future positions taken for the 2017 US Open which starts Monday at Flushing Meadows. Don’t forget to enter the Bracket Challenge in the Deep Dive group, winning players will be awarded a sweet prize from our podcast sponsor.

Men’s Singles Draw

The big news of the weekend was No. 2 Andy Murray withdrawing from the competition before the first match has been contested which resulted in a re-configuration of the seeding whereby the No. 5 Marin Cilic (my favorite outright play pre-draw at 20/1) takes Andy’s slot in the prime position of the bottom half of the draw and then No. 17 Sam Querrey (another future identified in the preview at 150/1) slides into Cilic’s slot, greatly improving his chances for a deep run.

The funny part of this is Nadal and Federer both ended up in the top half of the draw which has two implications: 1) the Center Court Men’s matches have scheduling imbalance now since they have to find a place for both Fed and Rafa on the same day but then every other day they lack a premier star attraction for the fans and 2) the long hoped for Fedal Final (which has never happened at the USO and seemed imminent this year) is impossible as they would meet in a semifinal if both men win their quarter. If Andy had pulled the rip cord pre-draw, Federer would’ve gotten the No. 2 seed (and the absolutely cherry draw that comes along with it) and all of this would’ve been avoided… Fedfans seething.

Some surprising movement in the outright market with the re-shuffle, Federer remains the favorite at +175 (no change) Nadal still second but his price up to +350 from +300 (more on this below), AZverev price continues to drop, now down to +525 (incredible considering he was 25/1 three weeks ago), lastly Cilic and Dimitrov are both down to 15/1 to round out the top five. Other notable movers include:

  • Nick Kyrgios up to 18/1 from 14/1…
  • Dominic Thiem up to 25/1 from 20/1…
  • Jo-Willy Tsonga down to 50/1 from 75/1…
  • Sam Querrey down to 80/1 from 150/1…
  • David Ferrer down to 80/1 from 250/1 (!!!)…

Basically the farther away from Federer you ended up in the draw the more your price improved, and vice-versa.

Overall the top half of the draw is significantly stronger than the bottom half. Looking for more of the favs to make it through and some really great match ups on tap for Rounds 3 and 4…

1Q

1st Quarter is the toughest with Rafa on course to meet an in-form Richard Gasquet in R3, the mercurial Fabio Fognini in R4 and then Grigor Dimitrov in the QF (unless Monfils or Goffin can surprise). Holding tickets on Dimitrov, Monfils and Gasquet in this quarter so eagerly on Rafa upset alert. One reason for the Rafa price going up is he’ll potentially have to face RF in the semis, but another reason is Rafa’s knees have apparently been giving him hell in practice and warm-up play, will be watching very closely for signs that he’s in trouble and if he faces the very fit Dimitrov in the QF it presents a great opportunity for the Bulgarian to advance to his first career USO semifinal.

2Q

On paper and based on the market, the 2nd quarter belongs to Fed. He’s got a clear path to R4 where he draws Kyrgios (barring an upset) and will face the fittest of Thiem, DelPo and RBA in the QF. Given his ailing back, which is only mildly concerning, Fed’s chances to win this Title likely depend on winning his Quarter without exhausting his reserves; if his matches vs Nick or DelPo go five sets and he takes some damage then be on the lookout for him to run out of gas in the SFs or Finals. On the flip side if Nick gets upset and the draw breaks favorably for Fed it will be important to open a ML parlay to cover all of these other futures because Fed on his best day is much better than the next best player in this field.

3Q

Prior to the Murray w/d re-shuffle, the 3rd Quarter looked to go to the better of Sascha Zverev and Maric Cilic, but with Cilic now into the 4th, the 3rd quarter is now AZ’s to lose. The three best US hopes are all in the 3rd with one QF representative likely to be the winner of the Sam Querrey/John Isner 4R match; the third American is last year’s US darling Jack Sock who will look to repeat his Round 4 performance but will need to beat AZ to advance any father which is a long shot. Also interesting that we’ll probably get our third AZ-KAndo match-up of the summer; can KAndo finally take a set off Sascha this summer? Holding a Sam ticket at 150/1 and hoping to cash that out when he comes up against AZ in the quarterfinal.

4Q

By far the weakest quarter when Andy Murray was the top seed, road to the semis now paved for Cilic if he can play his way into form. The dangerous Croat has taken more than a month off since his infamous Wimby Final meltdown and will probably look rusty out of the gate but there are few challengers in his path until R4 where he’ll likely come up against an in-form David Ferrer. Anyone’s guess who comes out of the top half of this quarter but watch for Canadian up-and-comer Denis Shapovalov who’s having a nice summer. My strongest position heading into this tourney is 2u on Cilic at an aggregate 21/1, the rationale for backing Marin is speculative in that it’s based on the assumption that his hip injury is minor and was a convenient excuse to rest up for this specific tournament which he has previously won in 2014. Cilic was impressive through four best of five matches at Rolland Garros before running into a white hot Stan Wawrinka and Cilic was razor sharp through six matches at Wimbledon before getting undressed in the Final against Federer. If Cilic can play his way into form through the first three rounds he’ll be far too tough for Ferrer, whoever he faces in the QF and then would likely draw AZ in what would be his first ever Slam semifinal. Love Cilic in that situation and love his chances against whoever wins the much more challenging top half of the draw. Let’s GOOOO!!!

Summary

These futures were placed at 5D pre-draw with 1u added to Cilic after the Murray news, except where noted otherwise.

2u Cilic 21/1

1u Dimitrov 18/1

0.2u Zverev 18/1 (from 8/14)

0.1u Monfils 100/1

0.1u Querrey 150/1

0.1u Ferrer 250/1

0.1u Gasquet 250/1


Women’s Singles Draw

The Women’s slams this summer have been far more difficult to evaluate before the start of play than the Men’s side. Wimbledon champ Garbiñe Muguruza is the odds on favorite at around 5/1 and despite being in form, that price is pretty lousy based on her track record at this event and in the US, in general.

Simona Halep has the goods to win the 4th Quarter but her future price isn’t nearly enough to back given her inability to get over the finish line on the grandest stage.

Venus Williams makes for a decent look at 20/1 with the extra rest in between matches; best guess is this tourney will be the third slam runner-up finish for Queenus this season after losing the Aussie Final to Serena and the Wimby Final to Mugz.

Two very dangerous Women on this surface sit as favorites to emerge from the 1st and 2nd quarters in Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina, respectively. Look for young American CiCi Bellis to make noise in the 1Q. Also very talented American Madison Keys can give Svits a run in the 2Q if her wrist is right. In the end the eventual winner of a Plis-Svits semifinal will be the player to back in the Final against a gassed Venus or a nervous Halep, between the two, Svitolina is the better price and is absolutely due to secure her first slam.

Summary

1u Elina Svitolina 12/1

0.5u Venus Williams 20/1


BOL and enjoy the US Open Tennis Fans!

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Whale Capper

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