Everything You Need to Know about NBA Free Agency
The key players and teams to watch as we dive into the NBA’s silly season
It’s the NBA offseason, but you’d hardly know it. The NBA has become a 365-day sport. We just finished the Finals a couple weeks ago, yet already those games seem like ancient history. Chris Paul and Dwight Howard have new teams, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George don’t, Markelle Fultz got a new job, and Phil Jackson lost his. And now that you’re caught up on all that, it’s time for NBA Free Agency to begin.
Free agency officially starts at 12:01 a.m. on July 1st. That means there will be some signings already late Friday night and throughout the weekend, and the biggest names will likely take meetings and make their decisions just in time to interrupt Independence Day barbecues as usual.
So, who are the biggest names available this summer, what teams will be busy, and what else is there to know as we enter the NBA’s silly season?
1. Not Every Team Will Be Playing Free Agency This Summer
Some teams have already spent more than their budget allows and are going to have to sit this one out for the most part. The NBA’s cap rules are confusing and convoluted, but the teams can mostly be broken into four tiers heading into free agency:
Well over the cap and not free agency players
Portland, Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Charlotte, Milwaukee
Effectively over the cap, likely to focus on re-signing their players
Memphis, Detroit, Washington, Toronto, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, Utah
Room to add a good starter but not a max player
Minnesota, San Antonio, New York, Orlando, L.A. Lakers, L.A. Clippers, New Orleans, Atlanta
The big free agency players (with near max or max room)
Denver, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, Chicago, Brooklyn, Indiana
Keep in mind that those are broad umbrellas, and teams can still make moves that would slide them into another bucket. The first two groups will probably focus mostly on re-signing their own guys, while the latter two groups should make the most noise. Expect Boston, Miami, Denver, Minnesota, and San Antonio to be five key contenders that set the rest of the free agency dominoes in motion.
Remember, over and under the cap don’t necessarily mean what you think. Teams over the cap can still spend to keep their own players — they’ll just come at a hefty price, often two or three times the price tag you see because of luxury tax fines and other rules. They also have a couple exceptions they can use to sign players and can always sign guys at the minimum. Savvy GMs know how to manipulate the cap rules to bring in the right players.
Teams under the cap aren’t always operating under the cap — teams have cap holds for their own free agents, draft picks, and stashed international talent, and that counts toward the cap too. Take the Warriors, for example. They technically have the least salary committed for 2018, but they also have cap holds of $32 million for Durant, $18m for Curry, $17m for Iguodala, $11m for Livingston, and more. They’re way “under” the cap but won’t be operating that way. They could “renounce” Durant, Curry, and Iguodala and have a heap of cap room, but they won’t because then they can’t re-sign those guys. Free agency is complicated.
2. Those Who Act First Often Act Worst
Free agency officially begins when the new NBA year begins, at 12:01 a.m. (Eastern Standard Time) on July 1st. The NBA has strict tampering rules that prohibit free agents and teams from talking before that, but we always get a couple deals signed within minutes of free agency starting. And you can count on those first deals being some of the worst.
The best players take their time making a key decision. You’re not going to see Gordon Hayward announcing a free agency decision late Friday night. It’s often players from the third or fourth tier of free agency that sign early deals, when a team looking to make a splash offers them way too much.
Remember last year’s big deal right at midnight? That was the Lakers and Timofey Mozgov, a disastrous 4-year $64-million deal mocked from the minute it was announced — a deal so bad the Lakers already traded away former number two pick D’Angelo Russell just to get out of it. Other big early signings last summer were Luol Deng to the Lakers and Joakim Noah to the Knicks.
Teams that act first aren’t acting smart — they’re looking to make news. Do you know who won’t have any midnight signings? Teams like the Spurs, Celtics, Jazz, Warriors, and other smart teams. They’ll be patient. Instead look for teams like New York, Sacramento, Chicago, and Los Angeles with questionable front offices to make the big early signing.
The smartest teams will take their time, and the best deals of the summer will come late, when players sign smaller or shorter deals. There are no bargains early in free agency. In a few weeks, a good player might sign a one- or two-year deal when the market dries up, opting for a chance to prove himself and get back out there. Some solid role players will be available for dirt cheap deals. Patience is usually rewarded in NBA free agency.
3. The Worst Free Agent Deals Are The Ones Right In The Middle
There are three great contracts in the NBA, and you’ll find them on any contender’s roster: really good players on max deals, young players on rookie deals, and veterans playing at or near the minimum. The way to build a successful NBA team is to stack it with two or three stars at the top (perhaps playing for less than they’re worth because of the max) and surround them with cheap talent on rookie contracts and bargain deals.
Most of the money in free agency will be spent on the opposite of that, especially in the first frenzied week or two. Almost every middle-amount contract signed last summer is bad or awful already one year later. Last summer’s market dictated that the price for an average NBA starter was around $14 to $16 million. A veteran max deal costs between $30 and $35 million a year. Would you rather have one superstar or two decent starters? Depth and balance is nice, but superstars win in the NBA.
Let’s put some names to it. Last summer, the Magic signed Evan Fournier and Bismack Biyombo on deals that will pay them $33 million for three more years. The Bucks owe Dellevadova, Teletovic, and Henson almost $30 million a year. The Pelicans will pay $33 million to Omer Asik, Solomon Hill, and E’Twaun Moore three more times. Last summer, the Blazers gave Evan Turner and Moe Harkless $28 million a year, then Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard another $29 million a year. Each of those pairs or trios is effectively being paid as a collective max player. The Blazers signed two “max” players last summer in the form of four overpaid players. The Warriors paid Durant $26.5 million this season. LeBron’s max deal paid him $31 million. Would you rather have LeBron or Durant or a package of two or three of those guys above?
It’s those middling deals in the $10 to $18 million range that can really kill teams in free agency. Too often, they represent a consolation prize for a team that missed out on its top target and settled on a next-tier player for a little less money. The problem is the money and talent isn’t proportional. Mozgov and Deng each signed for half as much as Durant and LeBron last summer, but they’re nowhere near half as valuable to an NBA team.
Those middling deals are killer. They might seem harmless now but they can really pile up later.
4. The Modern NBA Should Color Every Move Made
In 2017, every NBA team is looking for players that can defend and make a shot. Teams are only as good as their weakest link on both offense and defense, especially in the playoffs. Versatility is key. And almost no one is as versatile in 2017 as wings. Good wings can often play two through four, guard almost anyone on the court, and create for themselves or teammates. Every NBA team is looking for talented wings.
Conversely, it’s no longer enough just to be really tall. The NBA is littered with bad big-man contracts. Do you need a big man? Here’s a handful of the many terrible contracts you can find around the league, deals teams would desperately love to get out of:
Dwight Howard (2 years, $48 million)
Brook Lopez (1/$22m)
Bismack Biyombo (3/$51m)
Joakim Noah (3/$56m)
Tyson Chandler (2/$27m)
Timofey Mozgov (3/$48m)
Enes Kanter (2/$37m)
Ian Mahinmi (3/$44m)
Greg Monroe (1/$18m)
Dwight Powell (3/$29m)
That’s almost $400 million in sunk cash on big men, and there’s more where that came from. That’s two entire teams of cap space for ten guys you hope you never see playing in a key moment. Meanwhile the Spurs and Rockets paid DeWayne Dedmon and Nene the minimum last season to be just as good. Teams still need big men to protect the rim, but in the modern NBA, they better be able to do a lot more than that or they just aren’t worth much.
5. In Free Agency Contracts, The Devil Is In The Details
Not all max deals are created equal. There are three levels, depending on how long a player has been in the NBA. Max deals start at about $25 million for players with under six years of experience, $30 million with seven to nine years, and almost $35 million for ten-plus seasons. Salaries can increase by five percent each year, or eight percent for a team re-signing a player. Max deals can last up to four years, five for the incumbent team. That means a max deal for a young player might be four years at around $106 million while a longtime veteran could re-sign for five years and north of $200 million.
That’s the sort of deal Kyle Lowry could get if he takes the full max to re-sign with the Raptors. By the end of that contract, Toronto would be paying a 36-year-old Lowry over $40 million. That’s over 40% of the salary cap (for now) and might cost the team nine figures in its final season alone if the Raptors are in the luxury tax. So is Kyle Lowry a max player? He is this season, but you’re getting the whole deal, the beginning and the end of the contract.
How long is the deal? It’s the back years that really matter. That’s when a player is either a bargain like Isaiah Thomas or an albatross like Carmelo Anthony. Is there a no-trade clause? Does the contract have a player option or team option? These are the sort of details smart teams like Boston and Philadelphia use to give their team flexibility moving forward.
Because of the salary cap, the NBA is never just about talent. It’s about relative value. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are really good players. But at a combined $36 million for the next couple seasons, they turn into insanely valuable championship pieces.
So when you see a tweet that a player has signed with your favorite team, read the article too. The details matter.
6. Restricted Free Agents Are Often Stuck Waiting
Players leaving their rookie deals are usually restricted free agents, if their teams make a qualifying offer. That gives the incumbent team the right to match any deal — and really gums up the process. Any team that signs a restricted free agent loses precious time waiting to find out if the incumbent will match. That’s only three days now but still three days sitting out all the other signings with your cap space tied up. Because of that, the market for restricted free agents is often pretty tepid.
For a key player like Otto Porter or maybe Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, a team may be willing to take the risk. But most of the other restricted free agents will likely end up waiting out the early fun. Some will sign a one-year deal to become an unrestricted free agent next year. Others may come at a bargain later this summer.
Some key restricted free agents
Porter, KCP, Nerlens Noel, Mason Plumlee, Kelly Olynyk, Tim Hardaway Jr., Andre Roberson, Nikola Mirotic
7. Just Because It’s Free Agency Doesn’t Mean The Trade Market Won’t Keep Buzzing
Paul George is the big name, of course. You’ll see a ton of PG rumors over the next week or two, but he’s not the only name that could move.
Ricky Rubio and Eric Bledsoe could be playing elsewhere next season. Carmelo Anthony may need a new home. Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge could be moved. Boston (Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley) and Denver (Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Will Barton) have a slew of veterans they could be ready to move if they find the right trade partner or free agent target.
The NBA offseason is only two weeks old, and it’s already been wild. Just because free agency starts, that doesn’t mean all the crazy trading will stop.
8. Five Players Should Get A Max Deal: Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Kyle Lowry… and Otto Porter
Hayward looks like he’ll visit Boston and Miami or could stay in Utah. Griffin may be ready for a fresh start after the Clippers traded Chris Paul. Atlanta may not bring back Millsap, and the Raptors could hit the reset button too.
Each of those four is an All Star, a terrific player worth a max contract — for now at least. Lowry and Millsap are older. Those two and Griffin have a history of injuries that could come back to bite a team that pays too much, or too long. But that’s the cost of business in free agency.
Boston, Miami, and Denver could be the key names in the mix for Hayward, Griffin, and Millsap — maybe in that order. There’s not a clear suitor for Lowry. Teams like the Wolves or Spurs could be interested but don’t have max space right now.
But a fifth name will probably get a max deal this summer too. Otto Porter is a 3-and-D guy who shot 43% from downtown this year and quietly became a key player for the Washington Wizards. He was a top ten forward by almost every advanced metric, and he’s a player almost every NBA team could use. Porter is a restricted free agent, but don’t be surprised at all to see some team splash the cash — even though the Wizards will probably just match anyway. Porter is going to get paid. And he’s worth it.
9. The Point Guards Could Play A Game Of Musical Chairs — And Someone Could Be Left Standing When The Music Stops
Chris Paul is now off the market, but there should be plenty of action to come. Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday, and Jeff Teague headline the list, while George Hill, Patty Mills, and Derrick Rose will all be looking for a starting job too. Rubio and Bledsoe could move in trades. That’s eight possible new point guard starters, and the market will be very interesting.
That’s partly because some of the key point guard destinations just got filled in the draft. The 76ers got Markelle Fultz. The Kings got De’Aaron Fox. Dallas has Dennis Smith. Brooklyn traded for D’Angelo Russell. Those four teams could still grab a veteran point guard, but they’re much less likely to pay up for one of the above guys.
The Knicks drafted a point guard too, but they’re really one team likely to sign one of the names above. Otherwise it’s Toronto, New Orleans, Indiana, Utah, San Antonio, and Minnesota that need a starting point guard — you know, the teams associated with all of those guys listed above. Maybe this will all just be boring. Maybe Lowry, Holiday, Teague, Hill, and Mills re-sign, and Rubio and Bledsoe just stay put.
What’s really interesting is that point guard seems to be a secondary priority for many of these teams. Utah and Indiana would probably love to bring back Hill and Teague — if they’re keeping Hayward and George. If they go, it makes less sense to pay for an older veteran on a team that may be rebuilding. The Raptors may choose to rebuild too, and Minnesota won’t bring in a new point guard unless they find a Rubio suitor.
But if teams like Utah and Indiana drop out of the top point guard market, it could get very interesting. Maybe Kyle Lowry doesn’t actually find a max offer if Toronto doesn’t give it to him. Someone like Jeff Teague could sign a short bargain deal and look to try the market another year. Holiday is the point guard most likely to stay put, because New Orleans doesn’t have cap room for a replacement, but he could choose to leave anyway.
We could see all of these players back on their incumbent teams next fall. Or there could be a huge game of musical chairs with many of them swapping teams — and one or two key names could be left without a chair when the summer free agency music stops.
10. The Forward Market Is Where All The Key Free Agency Action Will Happen
The point guard market should be fun, but could end up boring if the biggest names re-sign. There aren’t any great centers available, nor teams that need them. There isn’t much on the wing either, so teams will be relying on names like J.J. Redick, C.J. Miles, and Dion Waiters to get their fix.
Instead, forward is where the biggest names and player movement will come. That mostly means guys that can play the four — some traditional power forwards and some wing threes that can play stretch four.
Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin, and Paul Millsap are the three big names and could all find a new home. Otto Porter will probably stay put, and Andre Iguodala should too. (There may be some juicy Iggy rumors, but is he really leaving that team? And are they really letting him? Let’s be real.) After those names, Danilo Gallinari is a really intriguing fallback plan. He looks likely to leave Denver and is a proven versatile scoring option. Rudy Gay is another veteran that could fill that role for a team that misses their first target. Jonathon Simmons and Joe Ingles broke out in the playoffs and could sign shocking contracts with a new team whose attention they caught.
There are plenty of traditional fours too. They’re the guys doing the dirty work to free up today’s unicorn centers to work their magic. They play tough defense, get boards, and hopefully stretch the defense a bit. Serge Ibaka is the big name but seems likely to stay in Toronto unless the Raptors decide to rebuild. James Johnson broke out for the Heat and will get rewarded for it, a sort of hybrid Draymond lite point-center. Taj Gibson is a stingy defender. JaMychal Green and Patrick Patterson are good defenders that can shoot and add some versatility. These guys have never gotten a huge payday and probably won’t get another chance, so they’re likely to cash in. These are the sort of really valuable players that can quickly turn into overpriced assets.
And there should be no shortage of suitors. Boston will almost certainly add one of the marquee names. Miami, too. Denver and Minnesota may be in the market for a rim-protecting four like Millsap, Ibaka, JaMychal, or PatPat. The Raptors, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Thunder will need to find forwards if they’re unable to re-sign their own players. You could add another eight to ten teams, which means that more than half the league will be shopping for forwards.
That’s the key position and the area most of this summer’s money will be spent. And that’s where you’ll find all the best action in the upcoming weeks.
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