How to Use History to Unlock an Excellent March Madness Bracket
What can the ghosts of March Madness past teach us about this year’s tournament?
It’s March, and you’re looking for any advantage you can find to fill out the perfect bracket. Everybody reads KenPom now and anyone knows about advanced metrics and the Four Factors. So where can you find an edge now? Maybe through the lens of the past.
The players change every year in college basketball, and so many wins and losses come down to a blown call or a 19-year-old’s mistake. The real star of the program is the coach, and school history and legacy give us a lot more data than just the few games this year. We can learn a lot by looking at a coach’s past performance, a team’s history in a seed range, and conference history. We can also help remove recency bias by taking a look back at preseason expectations and checking more than just the few weeks of games. Other hidden factors like time of day and location can play in too.
History doesn’t always repeat itself — it’s March Madness for a reason — but the truth is that we can learn a lot about the future by looking into the past…
EAST REGION
(1) Villanova — (16) Mt. St. Mary’s
Villanova is a great example of why everything here should be taken with a grain of salt and why March Madness is great specifically because it’s unpredictable. It’s also a good reminder of the effects of recency bias — both for good and for bad.
A year ago Villanova looked like a classic choker. They’d recently been upset as a top-2 seed three times by a 7, 8, and 10, all in the second round. They were in the toughest region and you’d have had to completely ignore history to pick them — and then they stormed through the entire bracket. Now recency bias tells you Villanova has the heart of a champion, Jay Wright is a winner, and this is the team to beat. The truth is somewhere in between.
Villanova under Jay Wright is now 16–5 in six times as a top-3 seed, but they’ve only made the Sweet Sixteen half of the time. Even with last year’s title factored in, this is still an underachieving team you should be careful about picking too far. One year doesn’t erase history.
Villanova gets to stay in New York all the way until the Final Four, but they were dealt the toughest region by a wide margin. Their style of play tends to allow teams to hang around, and teams like Wisconsin, Virginia, and Florida are all the exact sort of team to take advantage of that. Be careful.
Sixteen seeds are 0–128 all time, but you already know that. It’s gonna happen eventually, but you’re crazy to pick it.
(8) Wisconsin — (9) Virginia Tech
The Badgers have a history of underperforming as a 5 to 9 seed. They are 14–12, well above expectations, but ten of those wins came against 9+ seeds on luck of the draw and most of that was under legendary coach Bo Ryan. But seniors Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig have both played in two Final Fours, and new coach Greg Gard scored the 10/2 upset last season.
Wisconsin was in the preseason top ten. They’ve been up and down during the year but still have three stars, and preseason rankings are often a good indicator of teams’ true ability come tournament time. They’re underseeded.
Virginia Tech coach Buzz Williams is used to Wisconsin’s slow style having coached much of his career at Marquette. He was a slight overachiever there going 8–5 with an Elite Eight berth. He’ll need to bring that experience to a Hokies squad making its second tournament experience in two decades going for just their third win ever.
(5) Virginia — (12) UNC-Wilmington
Virginia is the tourney’s reigning choke artist now that Villanova won. They were a top-3 seed each of the past three years and won only six games, underperforming each time and losing to 4, 7, and 10 seeds. In fact Virginia has only beaten one team this century seeded 7 or better. Tony Bennett’s teams tend to play tight low-scoring games and that’s a recipe for upset when anything can happen. Sure enough, Virginia has lost by four or less in each of the past three tournaments. Tony Bennett and Virginia have certainly underachieved.
But Virginia was the best defense in the country, and by a pretty wide margin, in the best conference in the land. Like Wisconsin, they too were a preseason top ten team, and they’ve been one of the unluckiest teams in the bracket. Six of their ten losses came down to the final possession or overtime.
Virginia’s killer defense and slow deliberate style make it troublesome as a favorite, but they also make the Cavs very dangerous as an underdog. Could Virginia turn the tables on Villanova and be this year’s surprise overachiever?
They’ll face a tough test starting out against the most dangerous underdog in the East in UNC-Wilmington. The Colonial has a strong March history with a 22–36 record, pretty good considering the conference has only ever had a one-digit seed five times and never higher than a 7. You remember VCU and George Mason’s Final Four runs, and the Colonial has also added first round upsets as 13, 13, 14, and 15 seeds.
One of those 13 seeds was Wilmington in their only tourney win ever in 2002. This team has won the Colonial three straight years and gave Duke a scare in the first round last March. They have the terrific offense to match Virginia and have a shot at the upset if they can hit enough threes.
(4) Florida — (13) East Tennessee St.
Florida as a 3 to 5 seed has quite a history, going 20–7 with three Final Four berths and a national title. Of course Billy Donovan was in Gainesville for most of that, along with guys like Al Horford and Joakim Noah. This Florida team is coached by Mike White, his second year at the helm and first March Madness. They are still smarting from the loss of their best defender John Egbunu to a torn ACL, just 3–3 since the loss. That could prevent a deep run for a team built around its strong defense.
They’ll face a pesky, aggressive opponent in ETSU. The Buccaneers do have one huge 14/3 upset win to their name from 1992 but it’s their only win in history, and the Southern Conference is just 6–42 ever with half those wins coming from one magical Stephen Curry run. ETSU is super aggressive and looks to force turnovers and attack, but they also foul a ton and turn the ball over a lot themselves. That’s trouble against a better opponent.
(6) SMU — (11) Providence/USC
It’s tough to peg SMU, playing under first-year coach Tim Jankovich and with only one tournament appearance since 1993 and only four in modern tourney history. They also play in the AAC, a young conference that’s only been around for three tournaments. The first year worked out quite nicely with Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen and a Connecticut championship, but the AAC has gone only 2–6 the last two years after settling in.
Basically, history can’t help us much here. SMU lucked into a Tulsa draw, even closer to Dallas than to 3-seed Baylor in Waco, so that should add a nice advantage. SMU has a top-10 offense and a top-20 defense in what is probably the top mid-major conference in the country. They look really good. One thing to keep an eye on — SMU basically uses a 6-man rotation. Against an athletic team or one that gets them in foul trouble, that could spell trouble.
They’ll face USC or Providence, and neither team is very good. USC has won only once in six appearances as a 7 seed or lower, though coach Andy Enfield does have that magical Dunk City run with 15-seed Florida-Gulf Coast a few years back. Providence had magical runs in 1987 and 1997, so maybe 2017 will bring good luck. They’ll need it since they’ve won only one game ever outside of those two runs. These teams are in the play-in game for a reason.
(3) Baylor — (14) New Mexico St.
Baylor is the one top seed from the East that may be a bit overseeded. They’re a great rebounding team but have a huge turnover problem. The Bears only played in one tourney before 2008. Since then they’re 8–6 but seven of those wins have come against double digit seeds thanks to luck of the draw, and they’ve only ever made three Sweet Sixteens. Baylor was upset in the first round each of the past two years, to Yale as a 5-seed last year and to 14 Georgia State the year before.
It’s hard to see a deep run here, but New Mexico State may not be the team to beat them. The WAC is just 1–13 over the past decade with its one win from a 7-seed. This is the Aggies’ fifth straight tournament berth but they’ve lost by 19, 4, 20, and 13 the last four years and have nine straight opening round losses. A tenth is likely.
(7) South Carolina — (10) Marquette
The Gamecocks got pretty lucky with a higher seed than expected and a de facto home in Greenville, South Carolina. They can probably use some luck considering the team is 0–4 in the modern tournament and hasn’t won a tournament game since 1973 — and that includes first round flame-outs as 2 and 3 seeds in the ’90s. Coach Frank Martin was 6–5 at Kansas State and won at least one game every time, all of his losses coming to top-5 seeds.
Marquette is in their first tournament under third-year coach Steve “Copy-and-Paste” Wojciechowski. The Eagles have only played five times as a 7 seed or lower, winning a pair of games one year as an 11. Everyone would love a matchup with Woj and his alma mater Duke in the second round, but they’ll have to get there first.
This should be one of the more entertaining matchups of the first round, a true offense vs defense strength-on-strength. Marquette has an awesome offense and can hit threes in a hurry when they get going, while South Carolina has one of the nation’s stoutest defenses. Neither team has much on the other side of the ball, but Marquette’s streaky shooting make it the more dangerous upset team after this coin-flip game.
(2) Duke — (15) Troy
As a 1 seed, Duke is a ridiculous 51–9 with four titles in thirteen appearances, well above the already-high expectations that come with a top seed. As a 2 or 3 instead, they’re 35–13 with one title in fourteen appearances, with only one Elite Eight in seven such tries since 1994. That’s a pretty huge drop-off, and it of course includes Duke’s 14/3 loss to Mercer in 2014 and its 15/2 loss to Lehigh in 2012.
So what does it mean? Once Duke became Duke! in the early ’90s, they’re either good enough that they get a 1 seed and make a run or they’re usually just not good enough. Ah, but they got screwed and should be a 1 seed, right? Duke’s 8 losses would’ve been the most in history for a 1 seed. They had an awesome four days last week, but they’ve been up and down all year before that, so be careful before you decide that this team has magically pulled it all together.
Still, you’re probably safe to put Duke in ink the first couple rounds. Coach K is 27–4 in the first round and 23–4 in the second. Add it all up and Duke has made the Sweet Sixteen an incredible 23 of the past 31 years. Krzyzewski teams are 42–10 in even rounds, when teams have only one day to prepare for their opponent. That’s the sign of a stellar coach. Add it all up, and everything points to a possible exit to Baylor or SMU in the Sweet Sixteen.
They shouldn’t have much trouble with Troy in the first round. The Sun Belt has six tournament wins this century but none as a 15 or 16 seed, and Troy finished tied for sixth in the conference this year.
EAST REGION CONCLUSIONS
This region is well and truly up for grabs. Villanova and Duke are the best two teams and the most likely Final Four teams if they can dodge bullets along the way, but Virginia and SMU are capable of a big upset or even a run to Glendale too. Expect a lot of tight games in the East, which makes for good viewing and a region with a lot of possible outcomes.
WEST REGION
(1) Gonzaga — (16) South Dakota St.
Without question, Gonzaga is the biggest decision you need to make in your bracket. Every stat and advanced metric says Gonzaga is the best team in the country, but everything in recent history screams STAY AWAY. The eye test doesn’t work because Gonzaga hasn’t played anyone besides St. Mary’s in four months, and we only think St. Mary’s is good because they beat up on the same conference Gonzaga dominated. Let’s start from the top.
Gonzaga has a pretty impressive tournament history — as an underdog. Mark Few’s Bulldogs are 14–3 in round one, including an incredible 7–1 as a first round underdog. Those same teams are only 6–8 in the second round and 1–6 after that. That’s not as bad as it looks — a lot of those losses came from underdogs that had already overperformed — but it’s still not great. Gonzaga as a 6 seed or worse is 14–13, well above expectation. As a 5 seed or better, they’re a disappointing 10–6. That includes a 10/2 upset loss to Nevada in the second round in 2004 and a 9/1 shocker to Wichita State in 2013. Gonzaga has only ever made two Elite Eights, and only one of those was in their six tournaments as a top-5 seed. Not great, Bob.
What about other 1 seeds from non-power conferences? Glad you asked. Wichita State lost in the second round in 2014 just like Gonzaga the previous season. Memphis lost in the title game in 2008. There were a pair of Elite Eight losses by 2006 Memphis and 2004 St. Joseph’s, and there’s another second round loss, by 2002 Cincinnati. Combined, those 1 seeds went 14–6, almost ten wins short of expectations for a top seed. The ones that did make a deep run had future NBA players like Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Jameer Nelson, and Delonte West on the roster, and I’m sure having John Calipari didn’t hurt either. Does this Gonzaga team have the NBA talent to match those rosters that lived up to expectations?
Gonzaga was a preseason top-15 team, and they’ve murdered most of their competition. They’ve played five games all season within single digits while beating teams by 20 or more an insane 21 times. They’re the only team in the country with a top-10 offense and defense in all the metrics, and they might be closer to 1 than 10 in both. They play good smart ball, don’t foul much, work hard on defense, and don’t beat themselves. The Bulldogs shoot 61% from inside the arc while also limiting opponents to 40%, an insane difference. Their stats are unparalleled… but they’ve come against the 128th ranked schedule, about the same as Wichita and Nevada. Those teams are 10 and 12 seeds with only three more losses each. Of course those teams didn’t smack down opponents anywhere near as dominantly as the Bulldogs.
Are we sure Gonzaga is this good? The answer is no, we aren’t. We don’t know. They happen to have a home court advantage and a region with a bunch of other overseeded teams, so they might be the best West team even if they’re really only a 3 or 4 seed.
Do you side with the numbers and ride Gonzaga all the way? Or go with history and knock them out by the Sweet Sixteen, maybe even earlier? Your decision will make or break your entire bracket.
But you probably shouldn’t pick them to lose to South Dakota State in round one. Mike Daum is awesome at over 25ppg but he can’t do it alone.
(8) Northwestern — (9) Vanderbilt
Nerd wars!! Maybe you’ve heard, but this is Northwestern’s first ever appearance in March Madness. They’ve only finished above fourth place in the conference twice since World War II. This Wildcat team has already won three more times than any in Northwestern history. If they get one more, they’ll do it for Rachel Nichols and Mike Wilbon and apparently every other person in sports journalism.
Vanderbilt should give them a good chance for at least one win. They’re a poor NIT team that just happens to have Florida’s number this season, going 3–0 against the Gators and 3–10 against all other tournament teams. New head coach Bryce Drew is a March legend but this team just isn’t very good.
(5) Notre Dame — (12) Princeton
The Irish are another team that may catch you on recency bias. They made the Elite Eight last year as a plucky 6 seed but lucked into an incredible draw to do it, getting wins over 14 Stephen F. Austin and 7 Wisconsin in the second and third rounds. Before that run, Notre Dame was just 10–10 as a 5 to 7 seed team including just one win in five such appearances over the past decade. Mike Brey has done amazing things for the Irish but his teams tend to overachieve in the regular season, end up with an overinflated seed in March, and get upset early.
They’ll have their hands full with Princeton. The Ivy League is on fire with five wins in the past seven years, all as 12 to 14 seeds. That’s about triple the usual expectation, and it’s in large part because recent Ivy teams tend to play slow-paced smart ball, limiting mistakes, and shooting a lot of threes. Princeton was 18–0 against Ivy opponents this year but hasn’t won in the tournament since 1998, though they did lose by two in the first round to a 4 seed Kentucky team that ended up in the Final Four.
The biggest reason to doubt Princeton is that Notre Dame plays a lot like an Ivy team but with more talent. They won’t be thrown off by the slower pace, and they too tend to limit turnovers and fouls. This is the first game of the tournament, and it should be a close one.
(4) West Virginia — (13) Bucknell
West Virginia has really overachieved over the past couple decades, going 16–10 with about double the expected wins. This is their second best seed ever, and their only higher-seeded team made the Final Four as a 2 seed. Of course a lot of that success was with John Beilein. Bob Huggins is the Mountaineers’ coach now and he has struggled. Huggins is 16–6 in the first round and 7–9 in the second with a quintet of memorable chokes with Cincinnati at the turn of the century. He’s a miserable 11–7 as a top-3 seed and a terrible 9–11 in even rounds with only a day to prepare.
West Virginia lost in the first round to 14 Stephen F. Austin last year but otherwise hadn’t been upset in March since 2009. The one nice thing about picking the Mountaineers is that you’ll know pretty early when their day to lose has come. They’ve lost by 14, 39, 23, 8, and 21 points in their last five tournament defeats when they just stop scoring.
Despite all that, these Mountaineers are the one team out West that may be correctly or even underseeded. They force the most turnovers in the country and play stingy defense and kill teams on the boards, more of a bludgeon team than finesse. Both Notre Dame and Gonzaga present a contrasting matchup since each of them limits turnovers, though West Virginia could pound the Irish on the boards.
Bucknell’s guards will have their hands full in round one. This is the third best seed ever for the Patriot League, but the conference is just 3–24 all time and generally loses by 20 or more. That could continue if the press gets to the Bison early.
(6) Maryland — (11) Xavier
Both Maryland and coach Mark Turgeon have a tendency to win one and go out in recent history. The Terps haven’t been upset in the tournament this century but they also haven’t made a run since their title in 2002. Turgeon is 8–7 in his career and made the Sweet Sixteen for the first time last March. He’s only ever beaten one team above an 8 seed.
Xavier was a preseason top ten team but that was before they lost point guard Edmond Sumner for a season and went on a six-game losing streak midseason. Xavier is 7–6 under Chris Mack and this is their worst seed in a decade. They have a nasty history of keeping upset bids close but not quite finishing the job. One thing to keep in mind is that Xavier’s 1–3–1 defense is tough to prepare for on short notice. They’ve won five of their last six second round games with only one day to prepare, so Florida State should watch out if Xavier does advance.
(3) Florida State — (14) Florida-Gulf Coast
You may like Florida State, but history is not on your side. They’ve been a top 5 seed five times and disappointed expectations all but once in a 1993 Elite Eight berth. Head coach Leonard Hamilton doesn’t give much more reason for hope. His teams have gone 6–8 and he’s seen his 2, 3, 5, and 5 seeds all lose on the first weekend with just a 2–4 combined record. Florida State was not ranked in the preseason top 25 either, and they have a young and inexperienced team. It’s hard to find many more red flags for a 3 seed.
They’ll play in Orlando against regional opponent FGCU, which looks like a pretty friendly draw. The Atlantic Sun is only 3–14 in their history, though two of those wins were by this Dunk City team as a 15 seed in 2013 and the other was Mercer in a 14/3 over Duke the following year.
(7) St. Mary’s — (10) Virginia Commonwealth
St. Mary’s has only won three tournament games, just 3–7 in their history, though they did beat 2 Villanova to make the Sweet Sixteen in 2010. Whatever you decided about Gonzaga should tell you a lot about St. Mary’s since the Gaels last three times to Gonzaga and once to the rest of the country. This team was in the preseason top 20 so they’re not exactly a big surprise. They play a very slow pace with tough defense that makes them a very dangerous underdog team and, like Gonzaga, the numbers sure look good.
They’ll have a pretty big travel advantage over VCU, who has one of the longest treks to make as they head to Salt Lake City for round one. VCU had the one incredible Final Four team under Shake Smart but is 4–10 otherwise. They’re not the same team you remember from the Final Four but still took Buddy Hield’s 2 seed Oklahoma to the wire in the second round last year.
(2) Arizona — (15) North Dakota
History tells a long sad story for both Arizona and head coach Sean Miller. Arizona as a top-3 seed is just 26–12 with a couple of huge first round 14/3 and 15/2 upsets and four consecutive heartbreaking losses. Sean Miller has that dreaded “best coach to not reach the Final Four” tag. His teams are an impressive 14–2 as the favorite but have a laundry list of close heartbreaking losses to top-3 seeds in 2007, ‘09, ‘11, ‘13, and ‘15 by an average of four points a game.
Does that make Arizona and Sean Miller choke artists? Or just the victims of a really long string of unlucky coin flip finishes? That remains to be seen.
They’ll start out against North Dakota in their first ever tournament appearance. The Big Sky is a terrible 3–32 but that doesn’t mean I can’t give a shout out to my home state. Fighting Sioux forever!
WEST REGION CONCLUSIONS
You need to make a big decision about the WCC, and it’ll affect both halves of your West region. If Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are as good as their numbers look, they might well meet in your regional final. If not, the doors could open wide for Arizona or West Virginia. This is the weakest region by far, so this is the perfect chance for a team like Gonzaga or Arizona to finally get the Final Four monkey off their backs.
MIDWEST REGION
(1) Kansas — (16) NC Central / California-Davis
The Jayhawks have been a 1 seed twelve times and gone 32–11. That includes the one 2008 title with the miracle Mario Chalmers shot, but it also includes five big early upsets to 4 Michigan in 2013, 11 VCU in 2011, 9 Northern Iowa in 2010, 9 UTEP in 1992, and 8 Rhode Island in 1998. Kansas averages just 2.7 wins as a 1 seed, not even an Elite Eight appearance. Yikes.
Bill Self’s Kansas teams have an even bigger history of upsets. In the last eleven years, he’s added losses to 7 Wichita State, 10 Stanford, 13 Bradley, and 14 Bucknell to those others above. That’s six upset losses to a 7 seed or worse in eleven years, including five on opening weekend. Double yikes.
Bill Self is 26–5 in odd rounds with a week to prepare but only 14–12 with one day’s prep. That includes a brutal 2–6 record in the Elite Eight. KU gets to play in Kansas City if they make the second weekend, but it’s not like they’ve been super successful lately at the Big 12 tournament hosted there anyway.
This Kansas team has let middling teams stick around all season, relying on a huge amount of luck and closing touch to finish the job. They could be in trouble if the luck runs out at the wrong moment. Self would have to beat a Final Four coach in round two and probably another to make the Final Four, both with one day of prep. If you made it this far in the piece, you probably know by now what to do with the Jayhawks.
And if you want to get really crazy, NC Central has the best shot of any 16 seed at making history.
(8) Miami — (9) Michigan St.
This is only the seventh appearance in two decades for the Hurricanes, and they’ve only won one upset in school history back in 2000. Of course head coach Jim Larranaga has a little more experience with upsets, having led 11 George Mason to the Final Four with victories over 1, 3, 6, and 7 seeds including this very Tom Izzo and Michigan State. After the Final Four run, Larranaga’s underdog teams got blown out twice, won a tight 8/9 game before getting blown out by a 1 seed, then won two tight games over 11 and 14 seeds last year before getting blown out by Villanova. Maybe you’re noticing a pattern here.
There’s another pattern: Tom Izzo is really good in March. Even after last year’s disastrous 15/2 upset, Izzo is still 46–18 and has made three Final Four runs as a 5 seed or lower. Even as a 7 seed or lower, Izzo’s Spartans are still 8–6 with two Elite Eight berths, still way outperforming expectations. And Izzo is an absurd 21–4 in even rounds, practically unbeatable when opponents only have a day to prepare. Michigan State was just outside the preseason top ten but struggled through a terrible year by Sparty’s standards. Izzo might have used all his coaching magic up just getting them here — or maybe this is all a set-up for yet another monster upset.
(5) Iowa St. — (12) Nevada
Iowa State’s recent choke jobs are still pretty fresh, losing twice as a 3 seed the past few years to 7 and 14 seeds. But that was Fed Hoiberg and this is Steve Prohm, who is now 3–2 in the tournament, pretty well exactly at expectation after leading the Cyclones to two wins last season. This team is probably a little overseeded after their Big 12 tourney win and tends to play a lot of close games with five early losses by a bucket, then four wins in the same sort of games later in the season. If they end up facing Kansas in the Sweet 16, you should know that they already won at Kansas by 3 and lost at home by 4.
Don’t get your hoops up on a Nevada 12/5 upset. The Mountain West is 1–19 as a double digit seed, the lone win coming a decade and a half ago. Nick Fazekas ain’t walking through that door.
(4) Purdue — (13) Vermont
Purdue seems like a basketball school, right? You might be surprised to know they’ve only ever been to two Elite Eights and never the Final Four. They’ve about played to expectation as a 3 to 6 seed in the past, but they’ve had some upset problems lately with a first round 12/5 loss last year and an 11/3 loss to VCU in 2011. In fact Purdue has only won a single upset in the tournament this century, and that was just a 10/7.
Vermont had a heck of a season and earned a strong seed, but the AMEC has a pretty terrible history. In fact, the conference has only one win in 20 tries, though that was indeed Vermont in a 13/4 upset over Syracuse. This team lost by 52 to its only three tournament opponents so they probably… Catamount to much.
(6) Creighton — (11) Rhode Island
Creighton was having a lovely season before their best player Mo Watson tore his ACL. He’s out for the season and the Bluejays struggled to a 7–8 finish in his absence, lucky to get a 6 seed. Creighton has disappointed in recent appearances with just one win from two years as a 3 and 6 seed.
Rhode Island is partying like it’s 1999, their last time going to the dance. They have a nice history at 6–5, always as an 8 seed or lower, including a Sweet Sixteen as an 11 seed and an Elite Eight as an 8. This Rams team is coached by Dan Hurley, son of Hall of Fame high school coach Bob and brother of Duke star and current Arizona State coach Bobby. Rhode Island was a preseason top 25 pick but struggled with injuries early before putting it together late and winning the A10 tournament. Can’t you just see the Hurley story being told on repeat for a week after a big upset or two?
(3) Oregon — (14) Iona
Oregon probably had a worse weekend than you. On Thursday the Ducks were riding high and had a good shot to win the PAC 12 and steal a 1 seed. Instead they lost star defender Chris Boucher to a torn ACL and then lost to Arizona in the title game and dropped to a 3 seed.
Oregon is actually 2–6 as a tournament underdog but 11–2 as a favorite with three Elite Eight berths, and the only two losses were in coin-flip games to a team one seed lower. Oregon coach Dana Altman is 4–4 as a favorite himself, though he was only 1–3 before this team’s run last year. He could have a rematch with his old team Creighton in the second round.
Iona has never won a tournament game in eight appearances and has a tough travel schedule on this game and an early start. The MAAC is 5–32 all time and has never won with a seed this low. This team likes to run and that could be death against an athletic team like Oregon.
(7) Michigan — (10) Oklahoma St.
Michigan doesn’t have a ton of experience as a 7 to 11 seed, going 3–6 about as expected. Coach John Beilein has a little more underdog experience. He’s 6–7 as the lower seed with big upset wins over 1, 2, 3, and 3 seeds and four other losses by 2, 2, 3, and 6 points. The guy gets his team ready for big opponents, so Louisville should be on high alert if there’s a rematch of that 2013 national title game in the second round. Pitino broke Beilein’s heart then and previously in 2005 when Beilein’s 7 West Virginia lost to Louisville in the Elite Eight. Revenge would be sweet, even if it’s the undercard to an inspiring Michigan team story that went from plane skid to Big 10 champ.
Michigan may not even get their shot at Louisville, though, because Oklahoma State has the best offense in the country. This game should be high scoring, maybe the most fun game of the first round. History is against the Cowboys at just 3–8 as a 7 seed or lower, but that was before they hired new head-coach-and-definitely-not-a-country-singer Brad Underwood. Underwood won two of three first round games as a 12 and 14 seed with underdog Stephen F. Austin and had close losses in the second round each time too. These Cowboys are fun, and whoever wins this game might give Louisville their toughest test in the Midwest.
(2) Louisville — (15) Jacksonville St.
Louisville went 23–8 last year and probably would’ve been a 4 or 5 seed but were disqualified from the tournament, so these kids have been waiting for this chance to get back. Louisville as a top-4 seed is a sterling 39–12 with two national titles, a full 10+ wins better than expectation. As a top-2 seed, they’re 15–1 in three appearances with two titles and a loss in the Elite Eight. That’s pretty good.
Rick Pitino is even better. He’s been to seven Final Fours and won two titles and he’s 53–17 overall. Pitino is 16–3 in round one, 13–3 in round two, and an incredible 12–1 in the Sweet Sixteen! That’s a combined 41–7 in the first three rounds with an Elite Eight in 13 of 19 tournament appearances. That’s an incredible showing, no matter how good your team is. Pitino is 5–5 against 1 seeds too, an awesome record. In the last decade, Pitino’s Louisville have lost to Izzo twice, Calipari twice, Roy once, and one 13/4 buzzer beater upset. This team will not go down easy, if they go down at all.
Jacksonville State should be written in your bracket as “Not Belmont.” They stole the OVC bid from a fun Belmont sleeper team and probably won’t do much damage here.
MIDWEST REGION CONCLUSIONS
History says Louisville is the Midwest favorite, not Kansas. The Jayhawks are primed for an upset in round two or the Elite Eight. If the Cardinals go down too, any number of teams could make a run here. Either Michigan team could rise up from a low seed, or hot teams like Iowa State or Oregon could make a run. But it’s Louisville’s region to lose, and that potential Louisville-Michigan second round game could be the key to the whole region.
SOUTH REGION
(1) North Carolina — (16) Texas Southern
There is almost no safer bet in March than North Carolina as a 1 seed under Roy Williams. UNC has the most 1 seeds in modern tournament history, going an awesome 49–9 in twelve appearances with three titles. That’s more than four wins per appearance. In other words, 1 seed UNC averages better than a Final Four berth. And they don’t get upset either. They lost once to 9 seed Boston College in 1994 but otherwise the worst losses were to 3 and 4 seeds that made the Final Four.
Roy Williams as a 1 seed with UNC has two championships and has lost to 1, 2, 2, and 2 seeds. Williams is 43–8 in odd rounds but only 23–15 with just one day to prepare. That includes a disappointing 17–9 in the second round with losses as a 1, 1, and 2 seed all back in his Kansas days. History says when UNC lands a 1 seed, you should write them in to at least the Elite Eight and think about writing them once, twice, or three times more. They also happen to have the weakest half of any quadrant on the bracket, so that should be true than ever this March.
(8) Arkansas — (9) Seton Hall
Arkansas as a 5 seed or lower has gone 7–11 with just one Sweet Sixteen berth and no huge upset scalps on the resume. Head coach Mike Anderson has one through, a 9/1 UAB stunner over Kentucky back in 2004. Arkansas has a weird bit of tournament history with North Carolina. They’ve played them five times in tourney since 1990, and the better seed has won all five.
This is Seton Hall’s fourth tournament appearance since 1994, and they got smoked the last two times. They’re only 4–6 overall in March since the great P.J. Carlesimo run from 1989 to ’93.
(5) Minnesota — (12) Middle Tennessee St.
Minnesota’s 5 seed may have been the most shocking announcement on Selection Sunday. This is the school’s second best seed ever, after the 1 seed that made the Final Four in 1997. The Gophers are just 7–9 outside of that year with only one Sweet Sixteen berth. This is Richard Pitino’s first tournament game, and Minnesota was not only outside the preseason top 25, they didn’t even get a single vote. This team is ripe for an upset.
And Middle Tennessee State is just the team to provide it. These are the Blue Raiders that shocked Michigan State as a 15 seed last year, and they’ve brought back their two best players and added Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams who leads this year’s team in scoring. Conference USA has changed a lot in recent years so there’s not much history to go on, though they got the big win last year and had a 14/3 win by UAB over Iowa State the year before too. MTSU might be the best team of the four in their mini-bracket. Don’t talk yourself out of an upset just because it’s too obvious.
(4) Butler — (13) Winthrop
You know Butler’s name by now because they have a big history of outperforming expectations. They’re 19–10 this century and tend to take care of underdog opponents by comfortable double digit margins, then give top teams all they can handle. Butler’s last five tournament losses were to 1, 1, 3, 3, and 3 seeds — and that’s while Butler was a 5, 9, 6, 6, and 8 seed. Chris Holtman is no Brad Stevens, but expect this team to take care of business until they run into a better foe, probably UNC.
Everyone seems to love Winthrop, but the Big South has a horrible conference history with just one win in 26 tries. That was indeed Winthrop’s win as an 11 seed. This 13 seed is tied for the conference’s second best ever, but the Eagles were are 13 once before and lost by 31. In fact the Big South has only even kept a tournament game to single digits three times outside of that one upset.
(6) Cincinnati — (11) Kansas St.
Cincinnati doesn’t have a great tournament history under coach Mick Cronin, just 4–6 with only one Sweet Sixteen berth. Cronin has two other losses to his name while at Murray State, while Cincinnati was on the wrong end of a slew of memorable upsets at the turn of the century.
Kansas State is 3–8 as a 6 seed or worse, which is about as expected. They’ve yet to win a tournament game under Bruce Weber, 0–2 with a 13/4 upset loss. Weber took Illinois to the championship game but is just 6–9 outside of that season, though he did have an 11 seed Southern Illinois Sweet Sixteen berth in 2002. There’s not a lot to be afraid of on either side here.
(3) UCLA — (14) Kent St.
UCLA has a big geographical advantage on the opening weekend with games in nearby Sacramento while all three possible opponents travel from the Eastern timezone. They’re probably going to need the help. UCLA as a top-2 seed is 25–5, averaging better than a Final Four berth. As a 4 or 5 seed instead, they’re just 4–7 with five first round losses and have never made it past the Sweet Sixteen. This team is of course a 3 seed, a first for the Bruins, stuck right in the middle.
Head coach Steve Alford is 9–9 isn’t going to make you feel too much better. His previous best three tournament teams have all been 3 seeds, twice with New Mexico and once with Iowa. They all lost on the opening weekend, one to an 11 seed and two to 14s. Alford has never won a game after the first weekend. This UCLA team is loaded with buzz and plenty of offensive talent, but they’re going to have to overcome a lot of history (and a distinct lack of defense) to stick around this tournament.
Could Kent State pull off the upset? The MAC has a heck of a history as a 12 to 14 seed. They’ve won seven times in 19, and they’ve kept another seven of those games within seven points or less. That’s 14 of 19 times the MAC team has been right there with a shot at the upset. Kent State was only sixth in the MAC regular season and won 9 of their last 10 games, all of them by single digits or in overtime. Insanely lucky, or a team ready for its biggest win in school history?
So when the smoke clears from the chaos of round one and you’re searching through your bracket to find the biggest upset, you know what you might notice? U-C-L-A.
(7) Dayton — (10) Wichita
Dayton is 7–9 in tournament history, but this is only the third time they’ve been a seed favorite and they lost both of the other times. Still, Archie Miller is one of the hot names in coaching. Dayton lost in the first round to eventual Final Four 10-seed Syracuse, but the Flyers won five tournament games the two previous years.
But they have their work cut out for them with one of the worst-seeded teams in recent history. Wichita State has come up huge in recent tournaments and had an terrific season in a pretty good mid-major conference. They look like they should be a 4 or 5 seed but somehow became a first round underdog. This is a team built for a Final Four run.
And it wouldn’t be their first time making a run. As a 7 seed or lower, Wichita State is 9–6 including Shocker wins over 1, 2, 2, and 2 seeds. That’s almost double any expected wins and enough marquee wins for a lifetime. And this is probably not the first time Wichita has been underseeded. They’ve won some games as a 7, 9, and 11 seed the last three years before eventually losing to 1, 3, and 3 seeds, and all of those games were close. This is probably the third best team in the South region. Their poor seeding may throw off the entire region.
(2) Kentucky — (15) Northern Kentucky
If you’ve followed Kentucky basketball under John Calipari at all, you know the seed number makes very little difference. Cal UK teams are 23–5 in six appearances, nearly averaging a Final Four berth despite the fact that half those appearances came as 4, 4, and 8 seeds. That’s far above expectations and it’s probably because Calipari starts over with new freshmen every year and always seems to struggle with his guys early on before peaking at the right time heading into the tournament. At this point, just about any Calipari-coached Kentucky team should probably just be considered a 1 seed.
And they haven’t exactly been upset prone. Kentucky under Cal is 14–0 when favored by at least two seeds. In fact, in all his time coaching, Calipari’s only real significant upset was a 10/2 while he was at Massachusetts. In thirteen years with Memphis and Kentucky, Calipari’s has only lost twice to a seed lower than 3, last year to 5 Indiana and to 7 Connecticut in the national title game. Calipari is good, and he gets his young Kentucky team ready. They’ll face a steep test against a terrific coach in the second round, but history says they’ll handle it. This Kentucky team could go all the way.
Of course they have to start by beating Northern Kentucky in their first tournament appearance. The Horizon League is an impressive 19–18 in league history, but 15 of those are by Butler. The conference is only 1–9 when seeded 13 or lower.
SOUTH REGION CONCLUSIONS
There are three real choices here — but not the three you think. North Carolina should at least play in a game for the Final Four and Kentucky has a great shot as always. Otherwise it’s Wichita State and not UCLA that may be the latest double digit seed to crash the Final Four, though their terrible seed gives them a brutal path to victory. This is a pretty weak region outside of that nasty 7/10 matchup. UNC has the best shot by virtue of a cakewalk top half of the region, but Kentucky already beat them once this season and could have a shot in the Elite Eight to do it again.
FINAL FOUR PICKS
East
Villanova, Duke, Virginia, or SMU
West
Arizona, Gonzaga, or maybe West Virginia
Midwest
Louisville… or talk yourself into Michigan, Iowa State, or Oregon
South
North Carolina or Kentucky
CHAMPIONSHIP PICK
Go with a team wearing blue. History is on your side.
If you enjoyed this, please recommend by clicking the ❤ so others can too. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, humor, pop culture, & life musings. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.
Thanks to the Washington Post and KenPom for their incredible databases.
