March Madness 2018 Friday Best Bets
UNC, Syracuse, and New Mexico State lead the way for Day 2’s ten best bets
We’re off and running! March Madness is officially underway, and it got crazy late last night with the shocking Arizona beat down by Arizona as one of the trendy sleeper picks to make a run went home early.
Friday brings 16 new games and a day full of basketball, plus the promise of more Cinderellas and more chances to make some cash. We went 5–5 yesterday and came out slightly ahead overall with the Loyola upset. Let’s see if we can do better with today’s best 10 bets…
North Carolina -20 vs Lipscomb
North Carolina / Lipscomb over 162.5
Parlay this for my favorite bet of the first round. This is Lipscomb’s first tournament berth ever, and they drew the defending national champs. The Bisons play faster than almost any team in the nation. They’re top five in pace, and UNC is no stranger to running with a top 50 pace. Lipscomb is going to come out full of energy and run this game into the ground, and that spells death against a Carolina squad willing to run that’s bigger and better at every position. The winning team in Lipscomb games this season averaged just under 90 points a game, and UNC has hit 100 in four of their last six first rounds as a top 2 seed. There will be a LOT of points in this one.
New Mexico State +180 outright vs Clemson
The Aggies are really good and always looked like the best 12/5 upset. They have a top 10 defense and are outstanding on the boards. Clemson has had a surprising season but was not even supposed to make the tournament this year. They slow things down and play a lot of defense, but they haven’t been the same since the loss of Donte Grantham and the offense can go cold for long stretches. This is an upset waiting to happen.
Syracuse +180 outright vs TCU
TCU has one win ever in the modern tournament, and coach Jamie Dixon has 11 appearances and has never exceeded seed expectations (unless you count winning a 9/8 game). The Frogs are missing point guard Jaylen Fisher and haven’t been the same since, and that lack of handling could be a problem against Syracuse’s vaunted 2–3 zone. Jim Boeheim’s Orange are 20–10 when the tournament opponent has only one game to prepare. A play-in winner has won a game all six seasons since its introduction, and this is their last chance. TCU has a serious shooting and rebounding advantage and matches up well against the 2–3 zone, but this feels like a game Cuse can easily win.
Butler -1.5 vs Arkansas
Butler is the only team seeded 10 or lower that’s actually favored, and that probably means Vegas is onto this one. Arkansas is only 8–12 in the modern tournament as lower than a 5 seed. Butler is 21–11, far outperforming seed expectations year after year, and their last six tourney losses are to top 3 seeds. This is about history. Butler wins coin flip matchups.
Purdue -20.5 vs Cal Fullerton
Purdue has won nine times this season by 25 or more, and they’ve covered this line 13 times, including several times in conference. Purdue will have a huge size advantage, and they can really run up the scoring margin when the shots start falling.
Michigan State -14.5 vs Bucknell
This Bucknell team only lost by six as a 13 seed last year, but the previous three Patriot League reps lost by 39, 40, and 41. Michigan State has only one win the past two tournaments combined, and Izzo is still smarting from that 15/2 upset against Middle Tennessee State two years ago. He’ll have Sparty ready.
Nevada +110 outright vs Texas
Missouri +110 outright vs Florida State
Not a strong lean on either of these games, but it feels like the better team is the underdog in both. Nevada has a really efficient offense and a strong mid-major profile pretty similar to Wichita State. They’re underseeded, and Texas is a young, banged up team that never seemed to figure it out this year. Missouri is a question mark because of the health of Michael Porter Jr., and the tournament has not been kind so far to the top NBA draft prospects. But between Michael and younger brother Jontay, Mizzou will have the two best players on the court and that’s enough to give them a shot.
Cincinnati -13.5 vs Georgia State
The Bearcats started the year on fire winning six of their first seven games by 25 or more points, and they continued to blow teams out in conference too. They finished with 15 wins by 25+ points. The Sun Belt averages a 16-point loss as a 15 or 16 seed, and this is not the team the conference wanted to send dancing this year.
Wichita State -12 vs Marshall
Marshall is a fast-paced team ranked outside the KenPom top 100 that doesn’t rebound or play much defense. Wichita State was a preseason top 10 team that brings a crew of veterans who have been here before, one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and an efficient offense. They should roll.
Murray State +475 outright vs West Virginia
If you’re looking for today’s best long shot, this might be it. West Virginia is really good and might be underseeded as a 5 seed, but this team under Bob Huggins can go cold like no other and completely disappear from games. West Virginia always goes as far as their press defense takes them, and this year’s D is not quite as effective. Murray State is a top offense and plays a pair of point guards and limits turnovers, so they should stay in this one. Can’t you just see a tearful Bob Huggins embracing senior Jevon Carter as the One Shining Moment montage rolls in a couple weeks?
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