The 12 College Football Teams that Can Still Make the Playoff
A new top-12 ranking as the season heads to November…
It’s that time of year again, when the leaves begin to fall and college football starts its annual descent into utter chaos. Every year we wonder how we’ll possibly determine a champion, and every year things miraculously work themselves out. This year instead of too many unbeaten teams, everyone is losing. It’s not even November and only five undefeated teams remain.
Down goes Penn State! Off with TCU’s head! It’s always a wild weekend of football when two of the top five teams go down, and that means it’s time to refresh our rankings. With a month to go, only 12 teams still have a legitimate chance at making the College Football Playoff. Here’s how the resumes stack up through October…
The SEC Stands Alone
1. Georgia (previous rank: 2)
2. Alabama (1)
Georgia grabs the top spot as its win in South Bend looks far more impressive than the Tide beating the Seminoles, but it hardly matters. These teams are on a crash course for the SEC Championship, but Alabama is more vulnerable than you’d think. A loss this week to LSU or in the finale to Auburn could knock them completely out of the title race. Either team would move into a tie with Alabama atop the SEC West and hold the tiebreaker, and the committee almost never selects a team that didn’t make its conference championship game. Still, one of these two will almost certainly be the 1-seed in the playoff.
Irish Eyes Are Smiling
3. Notre Dame (9)
Notre Dame is somehow 8th in the terrible Coaches Poll, but they’ll be much higher in the official playoff rankings. The Irish are rolling with two straight dominating wins against top-25 opponents, and early road wins at Boston College and Michigan State look pretty good, too. Freight train RB Josh Adams has emerged as a serious Heisman candidate, and the Irish lines are dominating both sides of the field. Catholics vs. Convicts looms large in two weeks. Notre Dame has the best one-loss resume in college football.
4. Clemson (5)
It feels like we’ve forgotten about the defending champs over the last few weeks, but Kelly Bryant and crew dominated at Georgia Tech and face another tough test at NC State this week. The Tigers still have the chance to add that win along with wins against Florida State, South Carolina, and either Miami or Virginia Tech in the ACC title game, and they already have six good wins against likely bowl teams. They may actually be the most likely playoff team right now and certainly control their destiny — no way the committee leaves out a 12–1 defending national champion.
The Five Contenders that Control Their Destiny
5. TCU (3)
6. Oklahoma (6)
These two resumes are nearly impossible to separate. Both have a marquee road win over a top-15 team, at Oklahoma State and Ohio State. Both lost to Iowa State, though TCU’s was on the road. That along with the Horned Frogs’ wins over West Virginia and SMU gives them the slight edge.
More importantly, both have better resumes than any Big Ten team. It looks like there are essentially five “teams” fighting for four playoff spots: an SEC champ, an ACC champ, Notre Dame, a Big Ten champ, and a Big XII champ. That Oklahoma-Ohio State game is a massive data point if the committee has to choose between the two conferences.
TCU and Oklahoma meet in two weeks, but Oklahoma faces in-state rival Oklahoma State first. The Big XII might be the deepest conference at the top, but that won’t matter if they cannibalize themselves.
7. Penn State (4)
8. Miami (8)
9. Ohio State (12)
Yes, the Nittany Lions still rank ahead of the Buckeyes. Penn State looked like the better team most of the game before their late collapse, and that’s twice this season the new supposed #3 team in the nation has been dominated at home by a clearly superior opponent. Ohio State has a worse loss than any team above them and a weak resume outside of this weekend’s stunner. Their other six wins are against teams likely to finish with 5 to 7 wins as they scrape and fight just to make a bowl game.
Of course, that’s not going to matter. Ohio State is a game and a tiebreaker ahead of Penn State in the Big Ten East. Even if the Nittany Lions win out, they’re probably already out of the playoff race. They need the Bucks to lose twice to make the Big Ten title game; otherwise they’ll need a ton of help. Ohio State isn’t the third best team in the country, nor do they have the third best resume, but they do control their destiny if they continue to win.
Miami remains undefeated but might not actually be good. Their last four have been one-score escapes against Florida State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina — three of which may not even make a bowl. We’ll know soon enough if the Hurricanes are for real with visits from Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on tap.
Wisconsin Has Done Nothing Yet
10. Central Florida (NR)
11. Iowa State (NR)
12. Wisconsin (NR)
Central Florida is really good, and their resume is absolutely better than Wisconsin’s. Wins against Memphis and Navy are better than anything the Badgers have done, and UCF beat Maryland by more than Wisconsin and did it on the road. The Knights are good and they’re a great story too, one of a handful of teams playing with a lot of emotion after Hurricane Irma.
Wisconsin’s resume is a joke. They have zero wins against definite bowl teams. Their best win was probably Florida Atlantic. Their best road win was at Nebraska, a place Northern Illinois won this season. We have no idea if the Badgers are actually good, and it’s absurd that they’re ranked in the top four in both polls because of the zero at the end of their record.
Iowa State has lost twice already but has the better resume. Let Wisconsin play Iowa, Texas, TCU, and Oklahoma. Would they win two of those games? The Cyclones continuing to look good is great news for both TCU and Oklahoma, whose one loss suddenly doesn’t look too terrible after all.
Three Other Teams that Could Still Crash the Playoff
13. Oklahoma State (10)
14. Virginia Tech (NR)
20. Washington (NR)
There are twelve teams that still have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff. Penn State, Central Florida, and Iowa State would need a ton of help and don’t seem to have a real shot despite their high rankings. These three each have one loss and a light resume and will need a bunch of wins and help to move into the picture.
Oklahoma State hosts Bedlam this week. Virginia travels to unbeaten Miami. It’s now or never for both teams. Washington has the third best resume in the PAC-12 (notice they’re ranked 20th, behind USC and Stanford) but they’re the only conference team with one loss and probably their last shot at the playoff. But the resume is very poor, and even winning out would leave them weak up against a one-loss Penn State, Georgia, or Alabama or even a two-loss conference champion. The PAC-12 should probably start preparing for a Rose Bowl matchup with the Nittany Lions.
“Five” Games to Watch Next Week
A delicious slate of appetizers
USC at Arizona
(11) Iowa State at West Virginia
South Carolina at (1) Georgia
(10) Central Florida at SMU
Stanford at Washington State
Auburn at Texas A&M
And none of those games are even among the best seven of the weekend. Make sure you keep your Saturday open.
5. Big Ten road trap games
(6) Penn State at Michigan State
(12) Wisconsin at Indiana
(9) Ohio State at Iowa
Big Ten road games are always tough. Michigan State beat Michigan, Iowa beat Iowa State, and Indiana… had that nice start against Ohio State. All three ranked teams are two-score favorites, but at least one will go down in a road upset.
4. LSU at (2) Alabama
It feels like Nick Saban has figured LSU out. The Tide have won six straight against the Tigers and most of them haven’t been particularly close. LSU is 6–2 but they’ve been outscored this season and lost to Troy a month ago. There’s a reason Alabama is a three-touchdown favorite.
3. (4) Clemson at North Carolina State
The Wolfpack are a tough opponent with a strong run game and great run defense. Upset wins this weekend by NC State and Virginia Tech could knock the ACC out of the title picture altogether.
2. (14) Virginia Tech at (8) Miami
Expect plenty of defense between two teams that haven’t been as good as their records. The winner should head to the ACC title game, and a Miami win sets up a monster Catholics vs Convicts matchup next weekend.
1. (7) Oklahoma at (13) Oklahoma State
Bedlam is here. Both teams have been waiting on this one all season. The winner becomes the Big XII team to beat and thrusts their star quarterback into the top three of the Heisman race. There will be points.
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