The big Denver Broncos strategic decision that went awry
OK fine, decisions plural. Like, lots of them. Denver never should have lost this game …
While most of us were fast asleep last night, the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs were still wrapping up a wild, prime time NFL game that came down to the last play of regulation and then the last possible play of overtime too. The crazy finish saw two touchdowns in the final three minutes of regulation along with two game-winning field goal attempts in the final minute of overtime. And of course that included the winner, a Cairo Santos field goal that hit flush on the left upright as time expired and somehow doinked through the uprights for a Chiefs win.
It was a game that saw Kansas City struggle mightily on offense for 57 minutes on the road against the NFL’s premier defense only to come up with miracle after miracle to get a huge divisional win and boost in the playoff race against the defending Super Bowl champions.
And it was a game the Broncos should never have lost.
You know Denver coach Gary Kubiak’s big decision by now, attempting a 62-yard field goal with 1:08 left in overtime, but let’s rewind a bit.
The Broncos had the ball on the Chiefs 44-yard-line, 1st and 10, at the two-minute warning of overtime. Each team had a timeout remaining and any score would win a game — though a tie obviously loomed large. At this point, Denver was in range for a 61-yard field goal attempt.
Priority #1 at this point should have been running the clock down. Of course priority #2 should be picking up yardage to set up a more makeable field goal, but the most important thing was to make sure the Chiefs got the ball back with as little time as possible, if at all.
Denver could’ve run the ball into the line three times. They were averaging 3.4 yards per carry for the game at this point, so three straight runs probably leaves them something like a 52-yard field goal attempt — no sure thing, and not significantly more makeable than a 61-yarder.
But more importantly, they would’ve run the clock way down. Assuming it takes around 5 seconds a play, plus a 40-second play clock, Denver could’ve run the clock down to around 25 seconds remaining before attempting its long field goal on 4th down — even if Kansas City used its timeout.
At this point, even if the kick is still missed, the Chiefs get the ball back with around 20 seconds left, enough for three plays. They also get the ball around their own 42, which means they’d need to pick up around 20 yards in two plays while getting out of bounds just to set up a potential 55-yard field goal for the win. Even in the thin air, this would have been a long cold kick and nearly a career-long attempt for Santos.
Sitting on the ball and running the clock down would’ve left the Chiefs very little chance to win. It would’ve left the Broncos in a spot where they might win or would likely tie at worst.
NFL coaches are never really prepared for the possibility of a tie, and you almost always see a team become overaggressive to go for a win. No one wants to “settle” for a tie. It looks passive and the fans will never get excited about it, especially at home.
But it was absolutely the right decision in this case. A tie was a pretty good result for Denver. It was a pretty good result for both teams actually (such a good result that it might have actually been in Kansas City’s best interest to let the clock run down and give Denver a super long field goal attempt too).
But why? Look at the AFC playoff picture, now that the Chiefs got the win:
1. New England 9–2
2. Oakland 9–2
3. Baltimore 6–5 (AFC North leader)
4. Houston 6–5 (AFC South leader)
5. Kansas City 8–3
6. Miami 7–4
— — — — — —
7. Denver 7–4
8. Pittsburgh 6–5
9. Buffalo 6–5
10. Tennessee 6–6
A win here was big for the Chiefs, as it would have been for the Broncos. The win kept them in the division race — which is also the race for a top-two seed and a first round bye in this case. The loss was crushing for Denver. They’re out of the playoffs at this moment and almost certainly out of the division now, two games back and with a 1–3 divisional record.
And the schedule gets pretty brutal down the stretch too. Denver has winnable games the next two weeks in Jacksonville and Tennessee — and they’ll need them. They close out the season against New England, away to Kansas City, and then Oakland in the finale. That’s the top three teams in the AFC. Ouch.
So this game was a must-win for Denver then, right?
Well, not quite. It was actually must-not-lose. And that’s where the tie comes in. Take a look at the playoff picture had this game ended in a tie:
1. New England 9–2
2. Oakland 9–2
3. Baltimore 6–5 (AFC North leader)
4. Houston 6–5 (AFC South leader)
5. Kansas City 7–3–1
6. Denver 7–3–1
— — — — — —
7. Miami 7–4
8. Pittsburgh 6–5
9. Buffalo 6–5
10. Tennessee 6–6
It looks pretty similar, but let’s play this out. Remember, Denver gets to play the Jaguars and Titans the next two weeks. They should win those games (though the Titans will be coming off a bye and possess a strong rushing attack, so that one is no gimme). Assuming they get the two wins, the Broncos would’ve been 9–3–1 with that brutal NE KC OAK stretch remaining. Going 0–3 in that stretch was never going to work, but now getting even one win from that set would leave Denver at 10–5–1 — ahead of all 9–win and all 10-win teams in the conference. Miami, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo would all need to get to 11 wins to pass Denver.
The Broncos would’ve been in excellent position to make the playoffs even with “just” a tie. A tie was not a win, but it was also not a loss and that would’ve probably been enough to separate them from the contending pack.
The loss was crushing on many levels. It means Miami, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo are all one game closer, and that 10 wins instead may likely pass Denver. It also means Denver is all but eliminated from the division and the first round bye at 1–3 in the division. Denver also lost to Kansas City, one of the teams it is directly competing with for a playoff spot — that means the Chiefs are up a game and also that they currently hold the tiebreaker over Denver. And of course Denver lost to an AFC team, dropping their conference record to just 4–3. That’s the tiebreaker that would be used against Miami, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, and Denver is now trailing in every case.
This was absolutely a must-not-lose game for Denver and, even though ties are rare, that’s something Kubiak and the coaches had to know for this game.
Now let’s flash forward again to the actual field goal attempt with 1:08 remaining in overtime, when Brandon McManus missed wide left from 62 yards. Should Denver have gone for the field goal here?
The Denver air is thin and conducive to long kicks — three of the five longest field goals in NFL history have happened in Denver — but the ball was cold and heavy and McManus was basically being asked to equal an NFL record in a pressure situation. NBC reported that McManus had made a long of 60 yards before the game — when it was warmer and with no opposition on the field. He would need to better it here. What are the odds of making that kick? The answer is pretty low, however you slice it.
Alternatively, Denver could have punted the ball. That decision gives them almost no chance of winning but a pretty high chance of a tie. They could’ve also decided to go for it on fourth down. Picking up the first down should eliminate any losing scenario ensuring at least a tie, and it would’ve obviously increased Denver’s chances of winning significantly. Even coming up short would’ve saved Denver at least seven yards (since a missed kick gives KC the ball at the spot of the attempt) and probably more assuming they gained yardage on the play. Kansas City’s winning field goal was from 34 yards. Would Santos have made it from 41 or from 45 or 50?
It’s obviously quite speculative from here, but there’s one sure conclusion. Denver’s decision to kick with 1:08 left may or may not have given them the best chance to win, but it absolutely definitely gave them the best chance to lose. And in a must-not-lose game, that makes it the wrong decision every time.
Denver’s decision to kick… may or may not have given them the best chance to win, but it absolutely definitely gave them the best chance to lose. And in a must-not-lose game, that makes it the wrong decision every time.
Of course, we never should’ve even gotten here. Denver probably made the wrong choice in overtime, but it was a very difficult spot and an incredibly unfamiliar one — one that has taken 2000 words to unpack the morning after. That’s why these guys are getting paid millions of dollars, but still, it was a difficult decision and Kubiak had only a couple minutes to make it.
The more egregious error came back in regulation when Denver had a chance to put the game away for good. With 3:12 remaining, the Broncos held a 17–16 lead and had a huge 3rd-and-2 play on their own 24. The Chiefs had just used their final timeout, so a few yards here would’ve allowed Denver to run the clock down to almost nothing.
Instead of a few yards, Denver receiver Bennie Fowler badly beat Chiefs cornerback Phillip Gaines off the line and caught a pass that sent him to daylight and what felt like the clinching touchdown at the time.
But it was not a clinching touchdown, and it probably shouldn’t have been a touchdown at all. Fowler should’ve run down to the one-yard line and given himself up there instead of scoring.
Denver would’ve had 1st and goal on the Chiefs 1 with 3:00 remaining, but with the clock moving and no Kansas City timeouts left. One kneel down takes the clock to the two minute warning. A second takes the clock to around 1:15, and a third takes it down to about 30 seconds left. Here Denver could have used a timeout and kicked the field goal to go up 4 with 25 seconds remaining. The Chiefs would’ve had to go 80 yards in four or five plays needing a touchdown against the NFL’s best defense to win the game. And Kansas City to that point had not even twice that many yards the entire game.
The Broncos would’ve had around a 98% chance of victory at this point, and that stat probably underestimates the strength of the Denver defense and the ineptitude of the Chiefs offense.
Fowler giving himself up would’ve all but secured victory for the Broncos. And it’s easy to say that a guy making just his ninth catch of the season and the biggest play of his NFL career would never even think of going down at that spot — but that’s on the coaching staff. Every week teams are in a spot like this. It’s basic end-game strategy stuff for NFL coaches, and they need to have the players ready, especially coming out of a timeout.
The Broncos did have another option there. Even when Fowler went in for the score, Denver was up seven with three minutes left and an extra-point attempt on the table. With the crowd and momentum on its side, Denver could’ve gone for two and a chance to go up nine and basically end the game. NFL teams should go for two more often, and even that decision could’ve helped Denver win a game it had to have.
In the end, Denver’s coaches faced a must-not-lose situation and confused it for must-win instead — and the decision could likely cost the Broncos a playoff spot this year.
It turns out that sometimes a tie actually isn’t like kissing your sister.
Sometimes a tie is almost is good as a win.
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