This is definitely the hardest part to latch onto.

Staff writer @16WinsARing, @TheCauldron. Words at Bleacher Report, ESPN, NBA. Follow @wheatonbrando for sports, humor, and pop culture.

Aug 25, 2016

3, P(Crap) = 1-P(Brilliant) = 1/2. This is always the most controversial statement in a Bayes argument. What I am saying here is that there was a 50% chance my team was good and 50% it was bad before the season start.

How long can a run of bad luck last before we start to suspect a football team is actually crap?

David Sumpter

182

This is definitely the hardest part to latch onto. I think it works as long as you have a bit of a rotating scale of what “crap” means for each team based on expectations. Good Bayesian work otherwise, great read!