It’s really unlikely for the Texans to suffer that kind of drop-off with Watt coming back.

Yes, Watt is back, but football has a ton of variance year to year. The Texans were 4–6 outside of their division including 0–4 on the road, and almost all of their wins were in close coin-flip games. They could pick up a few wins and get to 11–5 and then the trade is a clear win, but they could very easily move slightly the other direction, get to 5 or 6 wins, and it’s a disaster.

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