First of all, let me say I’m not a doctor, not an epidemiologist, and I have no expertise in this subject matter at all. I’m an attorney and demographic researcher who reads the news, has a calculator, and wanted to get some sort of back-of-the-envelope estimate of what we’re facing in the next months or year.
Second of all, if someone who does have this expertise wants to come tell me that I’m being too alarmist, please do. I am very alarmed.
There’s an assumption in much of the media coverage of the Mueller report that has been nagging me for quite a while. With the report filed but not yet public, it’s the last opportunity to say something about that assumption, and lay out some standards for evaluating the report itself, without being accused of engaging in motivated reasoning. So here goes.
An awful lot of commentators are treating the question of Trump’s relationship with Russia, and the questions related to election interference, as if they were one and the same. An investigation that resolves one issue, it’s assumed, will necessarily…
Although proposals for place-based affirmative action have been suggested for years, the last year has seen an explosion in the number and variety of such proposals. The following is a memorandum I authored in 2017, in response to Trump administration attacks on affirmative action, that suggests an affirmative action system that incorporates both school and neighborhood characteristics — chiefly, racial segregation — to provide preference to students from disadvantaged areas. As place-based proposals seem more plausible by the day, I’m publishing it now to add it to the mix of policy proposals already on the table.
Unlike other place-based proposals…
In the original draft we summed up our findings as follows:
Ultimately, our model suggests that the probability of a set of payments coincidentally coming so close to $130,000 is approximately .1%, or one out of one thousand. Therefore, the probability that the Trump campaign payments were somehow related to the Daniels payoff is about 99.9%.
As several people pointed out, this is a somewhat overbroad statement of our conclusions, because it implies the probability that the payments were Daniels-related is, quite literally, one minus the probability of the null.
This is not quite accurate. First, there is also some…
As is well-known by now, in late October 2016, Donald Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen paid adult star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in order to purchase her silence about an alleged affair a decade earlier. The exact set of facts around this payment remains shrouded in mystery, with Cohen maintaining that he made the payment alone, without Trump’s knowledge, and with personal funds.
However, sharp-eyed observers have noted that, in late October 2016, the Trump campaign made a series of five large payments to Trump-affiliated entities, totaling $129,999.72. Campaign records do not provide enough information to conclusively determine, through traditional methods…
Race-based affirmative action policies are likely to remain under threat through at least 2020. Fortunately, there is an alternative policy that could conceivably replicate the integrative effects of race-based affirmative action, while remaining on stronger legal and political footing: opportunity-based affirmative action. Moreover, opportunity-based affirmative action has a bevy of positive features that race-based policies do not.
I. OPPORTUNITY-BASED AFFIRMATIVE ACTION
Conceptually, opportunity-based affirmative action is simple. During the application process, colleges, universities, and other institutions collect information on applicants’ previous home addresses. They also collect information on all schools previously attended.
Through a simple point system, applications are assigned…
Because being depressed about the future is cool on the internet, many people are saying that Donald Trump will probably win reelection. In reality, we don’t know if Donald Trump will win reelection. The signs are bad for Trump. But predictions are hard.
“But incumbents always win.”
Since Clinton’s election, three incumbents have won, and none have lost. So one way of looking at this is that, in the modern era, incumbents always win.
Since Nixon’s impeachment, four incumbents have won, and three have lost. …
I wrote this in the early morning hours of Nov. 9th. I’d been kept awake for, I think, about a day and a half at that point, first by nervousness and then by fear and panic. Until today, I’d forgotten I’d written anything at all after the election. I’m publishing it now because, with France’s election returns due within the hour, it’s good to be reminded that political outcomes are the byproducts of political systems, and political systems are complex. The fate of the world can turn on one percent of the electorate being here and not there. But that’s…
There’s a striking myth that when Columbus arrived in the New World, the natives were incapable of seeing his ships. The ships were so far outside their experience, the story goes, that the natives could not even comprehend their existence.
We are now all living in that myth.
I’ll admit it: I’m obsessed. I’m obsessed with the single astonishing fact that should be shadowing all American politics right now: our president-elect has betrayed our democracy to a foreign power.
But this conspiracy is being covered up — not by its brazen, incompetent perpetrators, but by everyone else, blinded by the…
Donald Trump’s presidency is probable but still not assured. If it can be stopped, it’s worth trying. Plenty of progressives will tell you everything is hopeless. Here’s the case for action.
Hillary Clinton could take two actions today that would considerably reduce the probability of Donald Trump ever becoming president: