Baseball Mogul: An Interesting But Imperfect Game
Baseball Mogul dates back to the 1990’s. The game has a long history, and it changed over the years. The baseball simulation has evolved into an interesting but imperfect game. The game’s latest version has a very realistic player model, but the simulation still has a simplified system with regard to player development and scouting.
Baseball Mogul has highly realistic ratings. A player’s abilities are no longer based on a historical range. Such ranges were used in older iterations of the game, leading to some ratings appearing too high, while other ratings appear too low. Abilities in Baseball Mogul’s most recent version appear more correct, because they are based on a distribution of ratings in the decade in which a player plays. For example, stolen bases are, in the current era, much rarer, while home runs are more common than in past eras. A player in this era who can steal 30 bases is considered a top-notch base-stealer, whereas he would have been considered a good one in the past. Similarly, a player who can hit 30 home runs is considered a good power hitter in today’s game whereas he would have been considered a slugger in previous eras. These differences between eras are smoothed out by Baseball Mogul’s rating system, which use an era-specific distribution instead of a general range. This distribution does not affect performance, but it does make ratings appear more realistic than in past editions of the game.
The simulation’s ratings are realistic, and they are also detailed. For example, the eye rating for batters is split into two separate ratings: eye and plate protection. In the past, a high eye rating could mean a hitter who does not strike out very often or a hitter who walks frequently. In the current version, a high eye rating refers exclusively to walks. Strikeouts are represented by plate protection. Avoiding strikeouts and garnering walks are different skills. They are now represented by different ratings. Baseball Mogul’s rating system is quite detailed.
The game’s system even appears to get a player’s ceiling correct. Many players have the potential to be great. In the game, a rating of 90 and above indicates that a player has hall-of-fame caliber abilities. The potential of such capabilities is common. Many players have lofty potential at 17 or 18. That future is reflected quite well by Baseball Mogul, where many players have the potential to be hall-of-famers.
Not every player becomes one and not every player who becomes one get there rapidly, a reality that Baseball Mogul reflects accurately. In the game, a player’s potential settles over time to his “real” potential. The hordes of players with stratospheric futures waft slowly back to earth, as their actual potential is much more earthly than originally thought. The players who do have hall-of-fame potential do not reach that potential right away. A player’s future clarifies itself over a few years in the minors. Very few players in Baseball Mogul are amazing at 18 or 19, a situation that matches reality. Very few baseball players are in the majors at that age. Even fewer are very good. Baseball Mogul accurately models a player’s development trajectory.
Players come from the draft, a process that Baseball Mogul also models accurately. Players with a high ceiling are available in every round. The actual baseball draft regularly produces great players in its later rounds. Those players typically require more development. In Baseball Mogul, late round players with a high ceiling are typically further way from reaching that potential than players taken in earlier rounds. A player taken in the first round is closer to the majors than a player taken the fifth round. The person taken in the fifth might even have a higher ceiling than the player taken in the first. However, the first rounder is more likely to reach that ceiling than the fifth rounder is. Baseball Mogul accurately reflects this reality in its draft, where late round players have high ceilings and a high likelihood of failing to reach that ceiling.
For all that praise regarding detail and realism, the game has its warts: a player development and scouting model that is over-simplified. The accuracy of scouting is determined entirely by the amount of money that a team spends on it. Expenditures also determine how likely a team’s players are to reach their ceiling and how quickly that ceiling is reached. This money model assumes that resources are intelligently allocated or that smart allocation is a non-factor in determining success. However, beneficial outcomes are definitely influenced by intelligent allocation. Smart decisions with a modicum of money can beat unintelligent decisions with large amounts of money. A smart upstart beating a well-healed interest is not uncommon. Microsoft beat the wealthier IBM, because the company saw that the home computer was the future, while IBM did not. IBM assumed that computing would continue to be mainframe-centric, while Microsoft predicted that home computers would become the center not mainframes. Due to Microsoft’s insight, the company grew into one of the largest in the world, while IBM fell from being dominant. Microsoft’s brains beat IBM’s money. Yet, cash remains the only determining factor in Baseball Mogul with regard to accurate scouting and successful player development. The game does not match reality very closely, a wart that tarnishes an otherwise praiseworthy game.
The simulation has been around since the 1990’s. Baseball Mogul has a history over which it has evolved into a fascinating but flawed game. The simulation is incredibly realistic and detailed, but its model for scouting and player development is over-simplified. That model is the blemish on an otherwise accurate representation of running a baseball franchise.
