Election Notes #1
Just something I wrote last week that I was sick of still having in my drafts.
Day 1 — Wednesday the 30th October.
1) All For One, Not One For All
Every bulletin. Every interview. Every commentator. Every news feature.
Everybody meet ‘Workington Man’, a creation of the Tory think-tank Onward. An older, white, non-graduate man from areas in the North of England with strong rugby league traditions which tend to vote Labour, he is the only sort of person who will be allowed to vote in the next election.
But wait. We’ve been here before. Remember ‘Essex man’, Mondeo Man’, ‘Worcester woman’, ‘Pebbledash people’ and the Holby City Woman?
Every election there will be a key swing voter who is either identified or created, and without fail this leads to under-coverage of other, key voting groups. Who was watching young renters in 2017? Who was watching the Unionists who gave Tories crucial seats north of the border? Who was watching the young women who would punish the Tories?
For each demographic that is heavily targeted, or over promoted in the media — and this is not to say Workington Man won’t be a vital influence — there will be one that gets ignored and those who think with a board horizon can reap rewards.
Now where is the focus on women in this election…….
2) The Long Game
Once upon a time, in a year called 2017, in a Green and Pleasant Land, there was an election.
In that election, The Conservative Party, the day before campaigning officially started, topped a YouGov poll. They had 48%, whilst Labour were on 24% (from 23% last week), giving the Tories a 24 point lead — or in other words, the highest vote share for the Conservatives since May 2008.
Fast forward six weeks and the Tories, despite winning 42% of the vote, had lost -13 seats and May had lost her majority, setting off a chain of events that led us to where we are now.
What price were the Tories when the election was called? What price were Labour for the most seats a week into the campaign? What price the Tories to win under 330 seats?
Never assume anything’s a done deal in a campaign, and always be on the lookout for long term as well as short term change.
3) Going, Going, Gone
One thing that will go a long way to deciding the exact makeup of the next Government is the individual quality of candidates and their relationship with their voters.
Let me explain simply. Many MP’s get re-elected because local people know them and become comfortable with them, and they contribute massive amounts to the overall seat tallies of the main two parties.
At this moment in time, over 50 MP’s have announced they will stand down at the next election.

MP’s do retire of course for various reasons, but a closer look at the names that will be leaving the commons, thanks to the Institute for Government’s Gavin Freeguard, reveals that some very notable MP’s, and many long-serving ones, are standing down. They will leave big gaps in some parties, especially locally, and the quality of their replacements in what is sure to be a very local election on the ground will go a long way to deciding key races which will have a big knock-on effect on the markets — some digging here could go a long way.
Watch out for: Outlier polls. This will be the most difficult election to poll in a long time. Be very wary of making any calls based on only one poll, or even only a handful — it was a costly exercise for some in 2017.
Don’t assume that: This election will be all about Brexit….
Watch This Space:The whiteboards have been put on notice….
For now….
