3 tech trends for an autonomous future, part 1: The law of acceleration will carry on with or without you
In a previous post, we mentioned four benefits of integrating autonomous systems into the workflow of an entire organization. I’ve identified three main technological trends pushing us toward autonomous tech adoption. In a series of three posts — 3 tech trends for an autonomous future, I’ll explore each of them in turn.
The first trend is the continuous acceleration of computing power sustained by Silicon Valley, otherwise known as Moore’s Law. As we will see, it’s a relationship already shaping the world in its foundation.
Most of us are familiar with Moore’s Law. Let’s agree that it means that computing power happens to roughly double every 18 months. Since Gordon Moore first observed the phenomenon in 1965, Intel Corporation has worked diligently to keep it alive and on schedule. Extrapolating from this trajectory, the futurist Ray Kurzweil projected in his 2005 book The Singularity Is Near that by 2023, a computer will surpass the brainpower of a human, and by 2045, a computer will surpass the equivalent brainpower of all human brains combined. That singular point in time will be like no other before in the history of humans on earth.
Some are doubting that we would maintain the accelerating pace once Moore’s Law reach a hard-physical limit as transistor sizes approach the single-atom scale. But even when this threshold is reached, many new technologies like quantum computers, protein computers, DNA computers, optical computers, and molecular computers have the potential to continue the acceleration law in new forms. Moore’s Law is a human law, not a law of nature, it is the human energy put into enforcing it that makes it real. And the law of acceleration of computing power is enforced by a very formidable human powerhouse: the whole ecosystem known as Silicon Valley.
Silicon Valley is not just a place. It is a societal pattern, a cultural and economic phenomenon shaping behaviors and relationships in an interconnected network of cities and tech hubs around the world. It has its own language, full of terms like MVP, pivot, seed round, down round, Series A, and product/market fit. It has its own particular set of archetypes to model player interactions, casting participants in roles like founder, advisor, unicorn, serial entrepreneur, angel, VC, incubator, accelerator, and startup studio. And most important, it has developed its own robust mythology, applying colorful character and a narrative logic of cause and effect to what looks like a game of chance with brutally bad odds. After all, randomness is no fun and wouldn’t attract the best and brightest players that are needed to keep the game alive. So, what the ecosystem’s statistics point out as negative expectancy behaviors are being taught as winners’ attitudes and celebrated with cult-like enthusiasm.
What interests us here is the reinforcing loop that exists between Silicon Valley and Moore’s Law, or the law of acceleration. Silicon Valley appropriates and deploys the various resources necessary to sustain the law, but as computing power keeps accelerating, it fuels the expansion and adoption of the Silicon Valley network and culture as well. Each feeds and sustains the other.
As a general rule of any system, with time, complexity mounts and entropy increases, generating increasing waste and misallocation of energy and resources. As an ecosystem, Silicon Valley is no exception, and it’s already running today with a high level of waste — waste of capital, waste of ideas, waste of human life and passion and time. But since the law of acceleration will keep going, it will force a reckoning to happen soon. Autonomous technology could tune and refactor the whole ecosystem, keeping entropy in check through radical transparency and systematized learning. A Silicon Valley suffused with autonomous tech would essentially expand while optimizing itself, continuously reducing the level of energy needed to successfully participate in the network. The benefits would be enormous.
It’s hard to fight trends — especially past the tipping point where a trend reaches critical mass and becomes a true paradigm shift. Rather than try to resist the tide, a better approach is to ride the wave: participate, get involved, learn, and contribute your own perspectives. If you add your voice to the conversation, some might care to pick up on your ideas as new directions to explore. You can help steer the course, not just get swept up along for the ride. The law of acceleration isn’t stopping. Whatever you do, make sure you’re in the maelstrom.
In a next post, we’ll look at the second of the three trends: the rise of ubiquitous computing.
