Finding and Understanding Impact: A series on the concept of ‘impact’ — Part 1: We Know So Little
Part 1 Spoiler Alert: The impacts of much of our actions are unknown. New approaches will be needed to recognize and improve our understanding of causality and the full scope of impacts.
“Throw a stone into the stream and the ripples that propagate themselves are the beautiful type of all influence.”
~ Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1836
As Ralph nicely said, every action we take creates ripples, ripples that flow outwards, impacting and changing all aspects of their environment in some way.
But we know very little about the full ripples of our actions; our actions as individuals, as businesses, as a society. The economic, financial, social, environmental, emotional, and psychological impacts (for starters), are all only partially understood, if at all. We are continually improving our understanding through research and experiences, but the pace must change.
If we want to make well-informed policy decisions, business decisions, investment decisions, personal decisions, health decisions we’ll need a method of analysis that draws on and combines all of the aforementioned forms of impact in order to create a more complete image of change. We need a topographic map of the ripples of change and a snapshot of landscapes. This includes those interconnected flows of externalities, those positive and negative side effects, those intended and unintended outcomes, as the recognition of one positive effect does not mean there are not many negative effects we do not currently see. A single upward sloping line to show a mountain of positive impact does not convey the desert on the other side, the steep cliffs alongside it, the deep and fast river around it.
Above all, for a full conception of impact, we’ll need to strengthen our grasp on causality — i.e. finding the cause(s) for each effect — however outlandish that goal may be. Recognizing causality and impact will allow for increased recognition of potential future risks, boosting our well-being and those around us.
And so, where should we start in tackling this ambitious mission? We begin here, acknowledging our battle with information.
Acknowledgement: Many thanks to Tarek Haffar, Josh Donlan, and Drew Tulchin for their very constructive feedback on the several parts of this series.
