GovBrain’s Trump Card

Only GovBrain Predicted the Rise of Trump

You’ve heard it over and over. No one predicted the rise of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump. All the experts and pundits have since admitted they were wrong about the billionaire celebrity. Everyone thought that Trump would collapse and eventually drop out of the race in disgrace.

Everyone, that is, except for GovBrain.

Only GovBrain predicted that Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich would emerge from that initial scrum of Republican presidential candidates. In August of last year, when all the “smart people” predicted Trump’s demise, only GovBrain Founder and CEO Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, said “Trump is not going away.”

Only GovBrain’s Eastwood predicted that Jeb Bush would drop out as well as lose the first four elections. GovBrain also forecasted that Scott Walker and Marco Rubio would fizzle out. GovBrain knew that Chris Christie and Ben Carson would falter — and that Rand Paul could not break through the pack. Finally, only GovBrain foresaw that John Kasich would eventually strike a chord and capture voter interest.

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When Dr. Eastwood was interviewed about the Republican presidential race back in August of last year, he was armed with GovBrain research that enabled him to successfully handicap all participants in the race and predict who would eventually capture the nomination.

Recall that last summer, everyone left Trump for dead. Trump had associated Mexican immigrants with rapists and criminals. Trump demanded Mexico pay for his proposed southern border wall. He had insulted Senator John McCain by exclaiming that he liked “people that weren’t captured.”

IMAGE SOURCE: FLICKR USER NINIAN REID.

Trump also started a war with Fox News anchor Megan Kelly and made a crude and vulgar reference to “blood coming out of her eyes.” Additionally describing how blood was coming out of other parts of Kelly’s body. This statement had many calling for Trump’s scalp.

No one believed that Trump would recover and most claimed he would drop out amidst these scandalous comments.

In mid-August of 2015, after the first Republican debate, one of the country’s top political bloggers, Joe Monahan, asked GovBrain’s Eastwood for his take on the future of the race.

Dr. Eastwood nailed it.

Donald Trump is not going away,” Eastwood explained. 
The debate struggles and even the comments about Fox News’ Megyn Kelly are not going to hurt him long term. 25% of Republican primary-voters hate government and the GOP establishment so much that they will still back Trump — warts and all. He currently has full support of the listeners of talk radio hosts Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin and Michael Savage. That is very important. The mainstream media does not understand Trump’s talk radio support. I think Trump’s national support will eventually dip down into the teens, but he still has a lock on at least 15% of primary voters heading into Iowa. He will clean up some stuff and come up with a few public policies, but what you see now –circus antics — will continue and he will still steal the media coverage from the others the rest of the way out. The potential for him to run a third party campaign should be taken seriously. He could actually create a new nationalist, ‘America First-type party.’”

But Eastwood wasn’t done with his spot-on predictions in that e-mail interview (full text available upon request). Channeling GovBrain’s Nostradamus-like clairvoyance, he correctly forecasted what would happen to the rest of the candidates.

Here is what GovBrain’s Eastwood said about Ted Cruz in August of 2015:
Ted Cruz is best positioned to gain from Trump defectors and he is a great fund raiser. Cruz has a growing ground operation in Iowa and should do well there. Cruz will struggle in New Hampshire but has a fighting chance and enough money to do well in South Carolina. He will carry delegates into the GOP convention.

What happened to Cruz? He won Iowa. He finished third in New Hampshire and got 22% of the vote in South Carolina. Cruz will definitely carry delegates into the GOP Convention — as of this writing he has 562 delegates after winning 11 states.

When all the experts last summer said Jeb Bush would be the eventual nominee, Eastwood was already putting nails in Bush’s coffin.

Jeb Bush could lose Iowa and the next three primaries, but he will have enough money to hang around past March 2016, but then will finally drop out. He has some original ideas, but no charisma and no likability. He will not break 15%. It was a mistake that his campaign wrongly decided to play it safe at the first debate. The real problem is that Jeb is a dud with no passion for the job. Plus, he is too smug and entitled about it — a turn off when there are so many other choices. Jeb is just better suited to work at a think tank. He’ll spend all his money on negative ads and his consultants will make some money, that’s about it.”

Photo by Brian Snyder, Reuters

What happened to Bush?
In one of the most disappointing campaigns in presidential history, Jeb blew $150 million and won no contests. Trump labeled him “low energy,” and Jeb never recovered. He bungled his way through the campaign with awkward speeches and surprising gaffes. Bush dropped out after South Carolina where he finished in fourth place. It was a campaign that will go down in history as a cautionary tale for failed candidates.

GovBrain’s Eastwood was also correct about Scott Walker and Marco Rubio.

Rubio and Walker are nice, earnest, but boring. It’s not their year. Their problem is that they are too boyish and earnest without the sex appeal and celebrity status that presidents need to display these days. They’re just not really cool guys. They’re too vanilla and need new hairstyles.

What happened?
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker was not ready for the spotlight. He struggled with domestic policy and foreign policy. His public and media appearances were peppered with astonishing blunders and flip-flops. Walker had much of the Washington-establishment hoping he would do well, but he dropped out before voting began.

Rubio did better than Eastwood expected. The Florida senator used his personal story well and the establishment anointed him the savior of the party. But for some reason, Rubio rested on his laurels, did not change his message and had one terrible debate that sealed his fate. He won only Minnesota and threw in the towel after an embarrassing finish in his home state of Florida. The DC establishment and pundits were wrong again.

Eastwood had a positive hunch about John Kasich that few saw last summer.

John Kasich gave thoughtful answers in the debate and has put himself in contention for the vice-presidential nod. He is from a swing state and that’s important. He has a likable bedside manner and is empathetic, plus extremely dignified with a human touch. But Kasich has very poor name recognition and no national network of donors or supporters. I see him as a potential cabinet official.

As for the also-rans? Eastwood predicted their futures too in August of 2015.

Ben Carson has enjoyed some good answers in the debate, but he is better as perhaps a vice president choice or more likely a cabinet official in a Republican administration. Carson also does not know how to campaign and often says strange things that were not on display at the debate, but the bizarre comments will eventually come out and sink him.

Chris Christie is perceived by primary voters as a jerk and bully who hugged Obama. He is disliked in his home state and is disliked by movement conservatives. I can’t see him living past New Hampshire.

Rand Paul needs to step it up, but it’s probably too late for him to recover. Rand is a terrible fund raiser. He should not have pivoted away from his authentic libertarian positions. By changing his libertarian views, he has confused and dismayed his key supporters who loved his father. I do not see a path to victory and he may drop out after New Hampshire.

Carly Fiorina is the most improved Republican in the primary. I told you Fiorina is much better. She won the bottom tier debate and is now the top woman Republican in the party. She could be the VP, Secretary of State or Secretary of the Treasury in a GOP cabinet.

There you have it. Few would have agreed with GovBrain last summer, but events have proven them correct.

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Disclosure
GovBrain is a research firm that does not advocate for any political parties or policy positions. Brent M. Eastwood is not active and has no official position in any presidential campaign. He has contributed around $400 to the Ted Cruz for President campaign, but he has made no monetary contributions to any other presidential candidate.