Image for post
Image for post

Authored by William Herrmann

You may have heard that market participants try to anticipate the economy by about six months. The reasoning for this? Six months is about as far as traders can reasonably attempt to predict future economic conditions. Also contributing to the short-term predictability is that most economic data is lagging.

Regardless, market participants are typically investing where they think conditions will lead us up to about a half-year out. For this reason, the market cycle will usually precede the actual business cycle by approximately that same amount of time.

Intermarket Relationships in the Economic Cycle

Stage I: The first slowdown in business activity causes a reduction in demand for debt. This slowdown has historically brought interest rates down (bonds prices move inverse to rates), as equities and commodities continue their downward moves. Commodities, a very cycle-sensitive group, are not in high demand, and inflation is typically not a concern. …


Image for post
Image for post

Authored by Garrette Furo

With boomers and Generation X’ers leaving their careers and more millennials entering, there is a demographic shift in the American workplace — what was once gold watches and making partner is now job hopping and celebrating the gig economy… right? More than any other cohort, millennials exhibit skepticism towards the economy and question the stability of their workforce. Having grown up in the financial crisis, many young adults recognize that a functional economy — and job — is not promised.

So just how badly are millennials disfiguring trends in American job tenure? According to Pew Research, millennial workers are just as likely to stick with their current employers as Generation X was when they were the same age. In fact, the U.S. department of labor data suggests that college-educated millennials have longer track records with their current employers than Gen X workers did. …


Image for post
Image for post

Authored by William Herrmann

Vega, Rho, Theta, and Delta are terms often used to name fraternities and sororities and likely more familiar to many in that context as opposed to being central in the pricing and trading of derivatives.

If you are currently making use of options and are not familiar with the above important terms, we believe you should not be utilizing options. In our view, which is shared by many, one must be an expert on trading the underlying (in this case equities) prior to even considering trading equity options (options on equities are a derivatives).

Unfortunately, this is not the case, as depicted by the charts…

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store