How Can We Be Both Lucky and Strategic?

Success is random

In his book The Click Moment Frans Johansson argues that success is random. That it is far more a consequence of chance than the product of a carefully constructed and executed plan.

Johansson uses a number of examples to illustrate his point. The script writers of Lost never thought the idea would get picked up and in fact the executive who approved it got fired on the basis that it was so ridiculous. In the end it delivered 18.7 million viewers to the struggling ABC network. Mark Zuckerberg hoped in the early days that someone would buy Facebook so that he could use the capital to launch Wirehog, a file transfer company he thought was the better idea.

Here is what Johansson says about success:

Success in the real world is far less scripted than we usually acknowledge, and filled with unexpected moments that tip the balance.

What about the 10,000 hour rule?

This seems entirely contrary to Malcolm Gladwell’s proof, based on numerous research projects, that given certain advantages and practice over 10,000 hours you will achieve the success you were aiming for. Johansson makes the point that there are certain endeavours in which the 10,000 hour rule applies.

These are in such sports as tennis and boxing, or classical music, or even where there may seem to be complexity such as in the game of chess, but in actual fact are still confined by set pieces and moves. In all of these fields there are distinct norms and rules and in addition, these rarely change.

Just think about tennis. The dimensions of the tennis court have not changed in over a hundred years. The rules are more or less static and strategy is usually in four different styles: serve and volley, aggressive baseline, defensive baseline and the all-court player.

In the realm of chess Laszlo and Klara Polger brought up their three daughters to practice every school day for up to six hours from a very young age. The oldest daughter Susan became the first woman to earn a Men’s Grandmaster title. Their middle daughter got an astronomically high score playing at an open competition and the youngest girl became the youngest Grandmaster in history at the time and remained the number one women’s chess player in the world for twenty consecutive years. They served their time and they got the results.

Life is more MMA than boxing

But life doesn’t allow you to play by the same rules over and over again until you get it right. It is constantly changing. The goalposts move. Unexpected happenings lead to new directions. It is unpredictable.

The comparison would be between boxing and Mixed Martial Arts fighting. Success in boxing is in mastering the fundamentals. These have to learnt and drilled day after day. It is impossible for someone to come out of nowhere and become the world champion.

However, the many elements involved in MMA means that no fight is ever the same. Because there are different moves and you have to adapt as you go. Someone, with little MMA specific training, who is agile, strong enough and able to literally think on their feet could and has beaten a champion. Life is more like an MMA fight than it is a boxing match.

What hope do we have?

Does this mean that we must surrender ourselves to fate? Are all our plans ultimately useless and strategy a whim of leadership to fool us into thinking that we have some vague control in a universe that runs on chaos? Johansson’s question is: If the world is so full of uncertainty, how, besides hoping for the best, do we consciously strive for greatness?

This is where Johansson is helpful. The purpose of his book is to provide three specific ways individuals and organisations can capture randomness and focus it in our favour. These are: click moments, purposeful bets and complex forces. I will explore each of these in blogs to follow.

As I think about success in my life I do recognize the role of serendipities. The coincidental connections across networks that lead from one meeting to the next, creating partnerships, trusted suppliers and customers. Meeting a customer about one aspect of their business and a passing comment opening up a long term project previously not considered.

But I also know that my intention and focus, and increasing and developing my skill set have undeniably contributed to my success. I look forward to exploring with Frans Johansson how to capitalize on luck and combine these forces of randomness and purposefulness.