How to Beat the House — EOSBet Dice

I was watching Adam Khoo’s video on how to Trade Like a Casino for Consistent Profits.
Basically, his argument was that because casinos have a certain percentage edge over the player, despite the players making money in the short term based on pure luck, the casinos are the ones to make money at the end of the day.
I then came across EOSBet Dice, a blockchain gambling platform, placing bets through smart contracts on the EOS blockchain, so it is impossible for the players to play an “unfair game”.
I wanted to find out if the game was really fair, meaning, whether I would have a chance of generating profit by having an “edge” over the house. Afterall, there are people in the ‘HUGE WINS’ section, who have made over 3000 EOS with just 154 EOS — what could possibly go wrong?
My thought process was as follows:
If I could have an edge over the house, speaking in terms of probability, on the premise that I repeatedly bet, I would win some and lose some, but eventually come out with profits at the end of the day.
With that underlying idea, I developed a strategy that could possibly allow me to minimize my risk, while maximizing my gains. Since the player loses everything he bets, whether it be 1 EOS or 1,000,000 EOS, I decided I would bet 1 EOS only to minimize my losses. My plan was to save the profits made with 1 EOS, and constantly bet with the same 1 EOS. If I were to lose a game, I would bet 1 EOS again and accumulate the profit generated.
If my strategy worked, and I could eventually come out with even 0.001 EOS at the end of the day, I was going to use a computer macro to repeat my strategy, so that after hundreds and thousands of repetition, I would be able to accumulate profit without doing much work.
Before I get into my calculations of how much profit would be generated with certain probabilities, I would like to apologize for the clickbait title; there is no way you can beat the house. Here’s why.
On the EOSBet Dice website, you can see the betting screen straight away. You first log in with your scatter wallet, and bet as many EOS as you want. What’s interesting about this is that you can control your win chance and payouts on wins as much as you want. You can choose to have a 1% win chance with a 98x payout, or a 50% chance with a 1.96x payout, or even a 95% win chance with a 1.03x payout.
At first, it seems as though you can manage your risk/reward by changing the settings to your taste. It almost seems as if you can profit constantly by setting the win chance to 95%, and consistently make small gains. I’m sorry to break the news, but here’s why you’ll never win.
I have organized the win chance, payout, total payout on win, losses, and profit on excel.
As you can see, even considering every single possibility, you cannot generate profit. In fact, you will be losing money, an average of about 2 EOS.
This is how the calculation works.
Let’s say I were to play it safe by setting the win chance at 95%. I would then have a low payout accordingly. A 95% win chance, speaking in terms of probabilities, means that if I were to play this game 100 times, I would make money 95 times, and lose money 5 times.
The payout being 1.03, if I were to bet 1 EOS every game, I would make a profit of 0.03 EOS per game. 0.03 EOS profit generated for the 95 games I win would bring me a total profit of 2.85.
Sounds good so far, but we also need to consider the losses. In EOSbet Dice, when we lose a game, we lose everything we bet. In this case, since we bet 1 EOS, for every game we lose, we would be losing 1 EOS. Having won 95 games out of 100, it’s time to lose 5 games. When we lose 5 games, we’re ultimately losing 5 EOS to the house.
In the end, we’ve generated a net profit of 2.85 EOS, with losses of 5 EOS. That leaves us with a total loss of 2.15 EOS.
This logic does not change even with extremely risk win chance settings. The same applies when the player sets the win chance at 1%.
A win chance of 1% means that for every 100 games played, he will win once. The payout for that setting is 98, meaning that if the player bets 1 EOS and wins, he will win 98 EOS, generating a total profit of 97 EOS.
On the other hand, for every 100 games played, he will be losing 99 games, which means he is at a 99 EOS loss.
Again in this case, the player is left with a total loss of 2 EOS.
One might say that they have made a lot of money on EOSBet Dice, and that it works, since they have beat the house themselves. I would like to congratulate those people and tell them they have been very lucky. The people who have come out with a positive net profit, have managed to do so, not because they’re brilliant with calculating their reward and hedging risks, but because they were lucky.
Could you still make profits on EOSBet Dice? Yes. Will you continue to make profits? Absolutely not. At first it seems as though you can get an edge over the house by setting your win rate, but the house ultimately has the edge over you with their set payout. I wrote this not to blame EOSBet Dice for always being the winner at the end of the day, but to share what I have learned.
Afterall, if winning against the house was possible in any way, someone else would’ve already done it.
