9 Potential Busts for OWL 2019: Sacred Cows Edition

WolfofVillainy
Sep 3, 2018 · 7 min read

Hello and welcome to another article from yours truly, WolfofVillainy. Yesterday we talked about 9 talents that are underlooked by everyone. Today, I’m going to touch on 9 talents that are at risk of being a bust despite their hype if they get signed to OWL. As provocative as the title might imply, this is not a list for me to diss or criticise any talents. My purpose in this piece is to point out players’ factors and data that is in in the way of their current hype. This can be hero pool, historical performance (or the lack thereof), patches and such. All of these factors can make or break these players’ chance in the big league. Here are 9 players that might not be able to play up to their hype in OWL 2019 if they get signed.

  • Daco

One of the premiere players in the vaulted Element Mystic. Even as they slipped from their “OWL ready” hype after season 1 and Spa9kle’s suspension in season 2, they have been an excellent upper tier team in KR Contenders, and Daco is a huge part of the puzzle. As much as people praise his performance however, he is a huge question mark. Historically he has been on D.va for EM, and nothing else. In the past season of OWL D.va has been one, if not the most prevalent pick in the league. But like Tracer, no character stays prevalent forever. His seemingly lack of other off tank picks in Zarya or Roadhog can be his Achilles heel in OWL where most playoff team’s off tank have more than just D.va in their repertoire. His ex-partner in Fearless was a vaulted main tank prospect coming out of EM but his lack of Winston was one of his biggest weak points. Given EM’s proclivity toward dive, one must also wonder if a similar fate awaits his partner in OWL as well.

  • Stitch

There’s no hitscan player that is more experienced than Stitch in KR Contenders at the moment. His Tracer, 76 and McCree historically has been excellent, and his performance usually means that he is a starter for them alongside Haksal most of the time. But his inability to flex outside of those heroes is a giant problem for someone in his role. His Zarya almost lost Runaways their match vs Kongdoo Panthera, while his Widowmaker was very inconsistent as a whole. It seems like his hero pool is more fitting for a Pine-like role rather than a starter, but at the same time he is one of the more consistent performers in the team as well as having a relatively high performance ceiling (when he is able to play his heroes). This is a concern that can’t easily be fixed by just having subs, so this is a conundrum that Stitch will have to figure out how to fix for the sake of his team.

  • Mangachu

Like many on this list, Mangachu is coming off a strong season with the XL2 in NA Contenders where he is going to LA for the final vs Fusion University. His Pharah/Hanzo has been one of the key contributor to their success. However, his history of performance might raise more than a few questions that needs to be answered moving forward. His hero pool of projectile heroes that lacks Genji or any hitscan is the first problem. Historically, in metas that don’t favor his hero pool, like 1.25, he tends to float from just being average to downright underperforming on role such as D.va or 76. His lack of success is reflected in Renegades’ rather disappointing tenure. Both of these factors are two real issues that OWL teams need to consider carefully prior to any signing.

  • Decay

Coming off a strong season with Kongdoo Panthera, Decay is on many’s radar as one of the best DPS from the KR Contenders scene. With a decent hero pool consisting of mainstay carry DPS picks such as Widow, Tracer, Zarya and Genji, he is potentially a hot commodity for any OWL team. However, there is something curious about Decay’s best hero optionHis strongest hero by far is Zarya, which is an off tank role. On his other heroes, he is decent and can play at a competitive level, but there are better players at those heroes. At the same time, Kongdoo Panthera was known as a strong tank team but they can only dive effectively in Assault map. This was a problem for them in season 1. This effectively means that even though on paper Decay and KDP looks good, it can be chalked up to having a favorable patch rather than them being OWL ready. He can be a risky pick for any team who looks for a prototypical carry DPS player. However, rumor has it that he is going to London along Dding and Luffy, which actually will reduce the team’s risk in signing him because he won’t be the centerpiece and can play behind Profit/Birdring instead.

  • Shadder2K

Admittedly, I was a fan of Shadder2K during Team Liquid’s last-to-2nd-place run in NA Contenders season 1 2017. Back then, he flexed on a decent set of heroes, and injected vitality into an aging, veteran team. Fast forward till now though, as much as people called for him and fellow Gigantti players to be in OWL, there’s little to convince me that Shadder2K is OWL-ready. On paper he is a flex DPS that can play a wide pool of heroes across the hitscan and projectile role. But in EU Contenders, he has been mostly stuck on Brigritte and Hanzo. Signing a flex DPS based on 2 heroes is a risky gamble to take. Team Gigantti’s surprise elimination vs Eagle Gaming in the semis, a team that have no OWL hype also has put a dent into his stock somewhat. Maybe in the next season Shadder can show that he is truly a flex DPS that can play a wide hero pool, but for now from this perspective he is a gamble that i’d not advise to take.

  • McGravy

Given Team Envy being Dallas’ Academy Team, there’s a lot of calls for him to be promoted to the main squad to replace Mickie. But there are factors that seems to suggest against this move. His D.va is one of the better D.va in the NA Contenders scene, but his Zarya and Roadhog has been somewhat disappointing. In the KR, NA or even EU, there are better off tank on paper that are more well rounded. At the same time, his ceiling as a player might be too limited for OWL. Team Envy/Envision’s historical ceiling is indicative of this they are the newest incarnation of “The NA Team” alongside Fnatic and FNRGFE in the past, where you’d find above average players that are consistent and have great teamwork, but lack the skill ceiling and the oomph to be truly top tier. This is reflected in a long stretch since last year where Team Envy/Envision couldn’t seem to be more than just a top 4 gatekeeper in Contenders. In OWL I can see him succeeding as a Coolmatt-type of player, but outside of that it might be a hard sell for him.

  • Most EU Tanks

EU is one of the deeper region in any esport, OW included. Historically EU talents have had better mechanical ceiling as well as better work ethic than their NA counterparts. But the recent 2 Contenders season has been sort of a regression as a whole for the region. For a region that has a lot of tank players, it is also the riskiest region when it comes to tank talents. The insistence on Reinhardt, GOATS-style strategy makes EU talents looks inadequate in other main tank heroes like Winston or Orisa, which are significantly more prevalent in OWL. This reflects badly when compares to other power regions like NA and KR where they have more in term of OWL-ready main tanks. To quote an EU Contenders tank player, “OWL dont give a fuck about Rein”, and it isn’t a statement talking about how OWL is unfair on Reinhardt player. This is a disservice on themselves and the region as a whole. EU talents can certainly catch up to other region in this regards, but it requires a lot of change in perception, attitude and efforts to do so. But for now, most EU tanks like Fusions or LHCloudy to me are risky picks for OWL.

  • Elk

Along in Fusion University’s position as King of NA, there lies Elk as one of the most hyped up prospects in the main support position. Most contributed his shotcalling ability to why he is OWL ready. But beyond that, there might be some concerns to whether or not he is truly OWL level. In top 4 OWL teams, main supports haven’t been a shotcaller role for quite some time. Assuming this trend continues, Elk’s contribution as a caller is significantly lessened. At the same time, his hero pool is also a bit of a question mark. He is more than above average at Lucio and Mercy, but that’s where it ends. In any other roles his ability to performs might lessen significantly. If the meta happen to shift, he may not be the same player that he is in NA Contenders right now.

And there you have it. Here’s my list of 9 potential busts for OWL season 2019. From my perspective, there are factors that will limit these players’ contribution in OWL and makes them unable to fulfill their hype pre-OWL. With that being said, OW is a game of changes and adaptation, and just because they might look like potential busts now doesn’t mean that they will in the next few months. Their OWL performance is in these talents’ hand and it is ultimately up to them to not fall into this cursed category. As always, thank you for reading. You can find me on reddit, twitter @WolfofVillainy or at my own discord at here

WolfofVillainy

Written by

Competitive @playoverwatch Coach/Analyst. Formerly of Solid Unlucky, Voltic eSports, Meta Bellum and On The Flank. Currently head coach of INTZ Gaming.

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