Church Growth Trends of Forty Large Membership Churches in the Alabama-West Florida Conference From 2008–2015
Introduction
The following is the summary report for an analysis of forty churches in the Alabama-West Florida Conference of The United Methodist Church. The long-term goal of collecting this data is to establish whether there is a correlation between positive church growth and a church’s primary style of worship. Though the study will not be complete until 2020, the below information summarizes seven years of data pertaining to; changes in average weekly worship attendance, percentage of new worship attendees from 2008–2015, and other information pertaining to the numerical evaluation of congregational vitality (while also recognizing that congregational vitality is not something that can simply be quantified, or qualified, by statistical analysis).
Research Methods
All data for this study came from the reports approved by each session of the Alabama-West Florida Annual Conference from the years 2008–2015. All conference data for the Alabama-West Florida Annual Conference is available on the conference website and in the printed additions of the Conference Journals of the Alabama-West Florida Annual Conference. The three main data fields for analyzing church growth used by this study are; (1) the average number of people in weekly worship services, (2) the percentage of members in weekly worship, (3) the percentage of growth/decrease in average weekly worship attendance from 2008–2015.
For the purpose of this analysis, churches were divided into three groups, (1) Main Service Traditional (2) Main Service Contemporary (3) Main Service Split. There are many factors outside of worship style that determine the identity of a church. However, for the sake of this analysis, the designation is used to identify the primary worship style of a congregation. If a church is Main Service Traditional, the majority of persons attending worship services attend the traditional service. Likewise, if a church is Main Service Contemporary, the majority of persons who attend worship services attend the contemporary service. Members, pastors, and church staff were polled to establish which worship style has the most attendees for each particular church. Some churches claim their worship attendance is split evenly between the two styles. These churches have been designated as Main Service Split in the report. Also, a few churches have multiple traditional services and a singular contemporary service; where the individual contemporary service has more attendees that any of the traditional services individually or combined. In these cases, if the number of attendees added from all the traditional service(s) combined is more than the contemporary service(s), the church is designated as a traditional church. If the number of attendees in the contemporary service(s) total more than the traditional service(s), the church is designated contemporary.
Delimitations
1. All data for this analysis has been self-reported by the communities whom the numbers represent. In a self-reporting system there will always be a potential of inflated averages. However this is the data available to the conference office. These are the same numbers used by the General Boards and Agencies to do any other form of numerical calculations.
2. Originally church membership was the primary indicator of a church’s strength. This study selected the original forty churches because they had the largest membership roles in 2008. However, worship attendance is a better indication of a church’s vitality. Because of the change in criteria, there were churches left out of the study that, based on their worship attendance, should have been included for consideration. Eventually, these churches will be added to the study to give a full representation of the largest sixty-five churches in the Alabama West-Florida Annual Conference (According to worship attendance). Churches in this category are listed below.
Table 1. Average Weekly Worship Attendance in 2012, 2014 and 2015 for 26 Churches Not Included
3. This analysis is not meant to be a pastoral evaluation. These numbers should not be seen as reflections on pastoral effectiveness for multiple reasons. Chief amongst them, during the years of this analysis the majority of churches went through pastoral changes either at the senior or associate positions. There are often greater fluctuations in worship attendance during the years in which a pastoral transition took place. Also, positive or negative trends in worship attendance are not explicitly tied to the tenure of a pastor, though they are also not mutually exclusive. There are some churches where the trend over the past eight years collectively is negative (a decrease in worship attendance), however, the most recent years have seen an increase (or a less significant loss). The opposite is also true; there are a few churches that have seen an increase in worship attendance over the past eight years collectively. However they have reported losses in the most recent years. Sometimes this change in trajectory takes place at a time of pastoral transition, and other times it does not.
4. For example, Trinity United Methodist Church in Fort Walton Beach, Florida has decreased in average weekly worship attendance by 5.3% since 2008. However, that number has improved over the past three years because the church has seen an increase in worship attendance between 2013–2015. The pastoral leadership (associate and senior pastor) at Trinity has not changed in the past three years. Similarly, First United Methodist Church in Prattville, Al saw a decrease of 25.9% between the years 2008–2011. However, the congregation grew by 5.5% between 2011–2015. 2011 was a year of pastoral transition. Therefore, it is clear sometimes pastoral transitions affect the trajectories of church growth/loss, and other times the trajectory (positive or negative) changes without pastoral transition.
5. There are a few churches that saw dramatic increases for a number years, only to have seen the opposite in recent years. Most dramatic changes seem to be caused either by a church split, or external influences. For example, when this summary was written in 2013, Cornerstone UMC in Auburn, Al was the eighth largest church in the conference, had the largest percentage of members in worship, added an average of 42.3 new worshipers per year, and grew by 4.2% from 2008–2012. In this 2016 summary report, Cornerstone is now the seventeenth largest church, it has seen a decrease by 34.1% since 2008, and is losing an average of 45 worshipers per year. This massive shift is largely because Cornerstone launched a new congregation from its existing congregation.
6. Lastly, there are a few instances in which a church offering contemporary worship saw an increase in the contemporary worship service, while it simultaneously saw a decrease in overall worship attendance.
Results
Table 2. Churches With/Without Contemporary Service
Table 3. Churches Main Worship Service
- Thirty-seven of the forty churches have a contemporary worship service.
- Three of the forty churches do not have a contemporary worship service.
- Thirteen churches claim that their primary worship style is contemporary.
- Twenty-one churches claim that their primary worship style is traditional.
- Six churches claim that their church is evenly split between the two styles.
Table 4. Increase and Decrease in Average Weekly Worship Service
- * This years calculations do no include Cornerstone UMC
- 35% of churches saw an increase in average weekly worship attendance from ’08-‘15.
- 65% of churches saw a decrease in average weekly worship attendance from ’08-‘15.
- 26% of churches saw an increase greater than 5% in average weekly worship attendance ’08-’15.
- 90% of the churches that saw an increase of 5% or more in average weekly worship are either contemporary churches or main service spilt.
- 73% of churches that claimed their main worship service is contemporary, saw an increase in average weekly worship attendance from 2008–2015; whereas, 27% saw a decrease.
- 19% of churches that claimed their main worship service is traditional, saw increase in average weekly worship attendance from 2008–2015; whereas, 81% saw a decrease.
Table 5. Order Based On Average Weekly Worship Attendance in 2015 (+/- Since 2014)
Table 6. Order Based on Percentage of New Worshipers Added From 2008–2015 (Growth Rate)
Table 7. Top Ten Churches Based On Worship Size in 2015
Table 8. Top Ten Churches Based On % Increase Of Worship Attendance 08–14 (Fastest Growing)
- Six of the largest churches in 2015 offer contemporary worship as their main worship service; three offer traditional as the main service; one is split.
- Seven of the fastest growing churches offer contemporary worship as their main worship service; two are split, one offers a traditional as their main service.
- Crosspoint UMC in Niceville, Florida will overtake Frazer UMC in Montgomery, Al as the largest church in the Alabama-West Florida Conference.
- In 2012 five of the fastest growing churches in the Alabama-West Florida Conference were Woodlawn United Methodist Church in Panama City Beach Florida, Gulf Breeze United Methodist Church in Gulf Breeze Florida, Crosspoint United Methodist Church in Niceville Florida, Harvest United Methodist Church in Dothan Alabama, and Cornerstone Church in Auburn Alabama. All of these churches identify their primary worship service as contemporary, and all have either been started in the last twenty years or have changed their main worship service to contemporary in the past twenty years. Collectively, in 2013 these five churches added 846 new attendees to their weekly worship services. Whereas, all remaining thirty-five of the top forty churches collectively lost 829 attendees between all of their worship services combined.
- In 2012, the sum of all new worshipers added and worshipers lost from the forty churches studied was +17.
- In 2014, the sum of all new worshipers added and worshipers lost from the forty churches studied was -267.
- In 2015, the sum of all new worshipers added and worshipers lost from thirty-nine of the forty churches studied (excluded Cornerstone) was +9.
Conclusion
There are critiques of the contemporary worship movement, just as there are critiques of all forms of worship. However, the end goal of this analysis will be to further a conversation regarding why the United Methodist Church needs to invest more resources into fostering this form of liturgical expression; and how to do so in a way that is theologically sound, liturgically sensitive, and culturally accessible.
